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POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE CAPE & ISLANDS

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE CAPE & ISLANDS. DAVID G. AUBREY WOODS HOLE GROUP 30 JANUARY 2003 FIFTH STAKEHOLDER MEETING. OUTLINE. CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL CHANGES RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACTS CAPE AND ISLAND-SPECIFIC IMPACTS

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POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE CAPE & ISLANDS

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  1. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE CAPE & ISLANDS DAVID G. AUBREY WOODS HOLE GROUP 30 JANUARY 2003 FIFTH STAKEHOLDER MEETING

  2. OUTLINE • CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE • CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS • RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL CHANGES • RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACTS • CAPE AND ISLAND-SPECIFIC IMPACTS • POSSIBLE RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS • SUMMARY

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE • Warmer air temperatures • Warmer surface water temperatures • Altered precipitation patterns/hydrological patterns • Altered weather and climate (hurricanes, storms, etc.)

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON OCEAN • INCREASES IN SEA LEVEL AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AFFECTING HURRICANES, NORTHEASTERS) • DECREASES IN SEA-ICE COVER • CHANGES IN SALINITY, ALKALINITY, WAVE CLIMATE, AND OCEAN CIRCULATION

  5. HURRICANES, STORMS, AND WAVES • POSSIBLE CHANGES TO FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, AND PATHS OF HURRICANES • MODELING DATA DO NOT SUPPORT INCREASES IN HURRICANES AND WAVES • LITTLE INFORMATION ON NORTHEASTERS

  6. RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL CHANGES • RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL CHANGES DUE TO LAND-LEVEL CHANGES AND WATER-LEVEL CHANGES • LAND-LEVEL CHANGES RESULT FROM • TECTONICS • POST-GLACIAL REBOUND

  7. RSL (CON’T) • WATER LEVEL CHANGES RESULT FROM: • STERIC EFFECT (INCREASED WATER TEMPERATURE AND LOWER SALINITY) • EXCHANGE OF WATER WITH GLACIERS, ICE-CAPS (EARTH RHEOLOGY, ROTATION) • HUMAN ACTIVITIES (WATER STORAGE SUCH AS GROUNDWATER, LAKES)

  8. RSL: MEASUREMENTS • HOW DO WE MEASURE RELATIVE SEA LEVELS? • DATING BURIED COASTAL VEGETATION (SALT MARSHES, MANGROVES, ETC.): SPARSELY DISTRIBUTED • TIDE GAUGES: MOST IN MID-LATITUDE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, FEW IN MIDDLE OF OCEANS, CONTAMINATED BY EARTH MOVEMENTS

  9. RSL HISTORY

  10. RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACTS • Lowland inundation and wetland displacement • Shoreline erosion • More severe storm-surge flooding • Saltwater intrusion into estuaries and freshwater lagoons • Altered tidal range in rivers and bays • Changes in sedimentation patterns • Elevated sea-surface and ground temperatures

  11. FUTURE RSL

  12. RSL UNCERTAINTIES • MODELS SHOW ACCELERATION IN RSL DURING 20TH CENTURY; DATA DON’T • MODELS UNDERPREDICT RSL IN THE 20TH CENTURY, COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS

  13. CAPE AND ISLAND SPECIFIC IMPACTS • SEA-LEVEL RISE ON CAPE AND ISLANDS RANGES FROM 2.2 TO 2.7 MM/YEAR (ABOVE THE GLOBAL AVERAGE) • GIESE ET AL. (1986) ESTIMATED LOSS OF 80 ACRESPER YEAR ON CAPE COD DUE TO PASSIVE FLOODING FOR A MODERATE RSL SCENARIO, MANY TIMES THE LOSS DUE TO COASTAL EROSION!

  14. POSSIBLE RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT • ADAPTATION can be • NATURAL • POLICY-DRIVEN, PRO-ACTIVE OR REACTIVE • CATEGORIES: PROTECT, ACCOMMODATE, AND RETREAT • MITIGATION

  15. SUMMARY REQUIREMENTS • INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS ON GLOBAL AND REGIONAL BASES • ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION OPTIONS IDENTIFIED AND CODIFIED • INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT ON A REGIONAL BASIS

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