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Estimating PCH Bed Projections

MANITOBA CENTRE FOR HEALTH POLICY. Estimating PCH Bed Projections. Norman Frohlich Carolyn De Coster Natalia Dik. Authors: Norman Frohlich Carolyn De Coster Natalia Dik. Look at historical use Identify factors that help to explain use

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Estimating PCH Bed Projections

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  1. MANITOBA CENTRE FOR HEALTH POLICY Estimating PCH Bed Projections Norman Frohlich Carolyn De Coster Natalia Dik

  2. Authors: Norman FrohlichCarolyn De CosterNatalia Dik

  3. Look at historical use Identify factors that help to explain use Model future demand using MBS population projections Method

  4. PCH residents per 1000 persons age 75+, 85/86 - 99/00

  5. PCH waiting times after panelling, non-Winnipeg

  6. Sociodemographic Health Functional status Supports (formal & informal) Health system Factors - potential

  7. age, sex, region readily available capture underlying changes not available in data Factors - used

  8. 1. Trend Analysis 2. Recent Use 3. Combined Three models

  9. Looked at patterns over ten years by age and sex groupings Found PCH days/1000 population going down 1. Trend analysis

  10. What was average use over last three years? Project forward to year 2020 2. Recent Use

  11. Mean of Trend Analysis and Recent Use Captures downward trend in use but modifies by recent patterns. 3. Combined method

  12. PCH Bed Projections for Non-Winnipeg, 4 methods

  13. Current capacity: 4084 75+ Formula: 4511 Trend Analysis: 3413 Recent Use: 4817 Combined: 4115 Results: Non-Winnipeg

  14. Use Combined Method Our recommendation

  15. Central: 37 North Eastman: - 34 South Eastman: - 129 Interlake: - 151 Nor-Man: -7 Surpluses and Deficits, 2020

  16. Parkland: 102 Burntwood/Churchill: -24 Brandon: - 13 Marquette: 63 South Westman: 125 Winnipeg: 538 Surpluses and Deficits, 2020

  17. Migration not factored in 89% of residents stay in RHA ‘under-bedded’ RHAs have higher movement out Limitations

  18. Changes in resources e.g. home care, hospital occupancy, could change estimates Population projections could be incorrect Limitations

  19. More PCH beds in Non-Winnipeg though this varies by RHA Models use readily available data and should be checked frequently Bottom Line

  20. M Manitoba Centrefor Health Policy C H P www.umanitoba.ca/centres/mchp

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