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Climate Modeling for Urban Planning

Climate Modeling for Urban Planning. Michael Winton 21 May 2008 NOAA/GFDL. The Climate Change Information Food Chain a la IPCC. Emissions Scenarios. Impacts/Adaptations Analysis. Climate Simulations. Cost-Benefit Analysis. Mitigation.

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Climate Modeling for Urban Planning

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  1. Climate Modeling for Urban Planning Michael Winton 21 May 2008 NOAA/GFDL

  2. The Climate Change Information Food Chain a la IPCC Emissions Scenarios Impacts/Adaptations Analysis Climate Simulations Cost-Benefit Analysis Mitigation

  3. The Earth’s energy balance is the key to long-term climate prediction Climate models predict future weather probabilities

  4. Models agree that there is an anthropogenic component to the current warming (1) Detection: something beyond natural variability is happening to the global climate (2) Attribution: anthropogenic forcing is that “something”

  5. What do GCMs agree/disagree on? • Global changes • Large scale patterns

  6. Atmosphere Land Ocean Ice Climate model equations are cast on global grids and solved on a computer

  7. Simulated vs. Parameterized • Simulated processes: larger than grid-scale, based on bedrock scientific principles (conservation of energy, mass and momentum). Example: storms. • Parameterized processes: smaller than grid scale, formulations guided by physical principles but also make use of observational data. Example: clouds.

  8. Why do GCMs disagree? • Forcings are different: e.g. aerosols • Feedbacks are different: e.g. clouds • Natural variability: but we can reduce this with ensemble of simulations Radiative Forcings (CO2, aerosols, …) Natural Variability Climate Feedbacks (water vapor, clouds, …)

  9. Downscaling can help: e.g. hurricane strength Environments from 9 GCMs ~ ½ category increase in hurricane intensity Downscaling with 4 versions of GFDL hurricane model Knutson and Tuleya (2004)

  10. Sea level: Different Uncertainties Miami/Dade Climate Change Task Force IPCC 2007 • Thermal expansion of oceans • Melting of glacier & small ice caps • Melting/Accumulation on ice sheets • Ice sheet flow changes

  11. Assess the quality of climate information; peer reviewed is best Editor Author Reviewer Reviewer Reviewer

  12. Conclusions • Current climate models agree qualitatively but have significant quantitative differences. Improving the accuracy of climate models is a long-term endeavor. • Downscaling can help (to some extent); the multi-model approach should be employed. • Read the labels on your climate change info. Assessments such as the IPCC and CCSP are useful gateways to peer-reviewed studies.

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