Making a Hard Decision

1. Making a Hard Decision Maneesha Mankad

2. Industrial Engineering at Disney

3. Simple Fun Decisions: Think - Pair- Share • Fast Food • Friday Movie Night

4. Questions to Consider • What alternatives will you choose from? • What do you value in your decision making? • What measures are appropriate for each criterion? • How will you compare the alternatives which you have to choose from? • Are all measures comparable across the board? • What criteria matters to you more and by how much? • How will you make the final decision?

5. What college should I attend? • Buying your first home • Picking a cell phone plan • What should I be when I grow up? • How much insurance should I have?

6. Choosing a Cell Phone Plan Refer to Section 1.1.1, Page 4 PART 1 Choose Roles: Surveyor, Recorder, Presenter, Task Master (Write down your role on your paper along with your name) • Surveyor: Goes around and collects data from two other pairs. Leads the discussion for comparing cell phone plans. • Recorder: Records data from surveyor and writes down explanation of why their pair chose the plan they did. • Presenter: Presents data/results to the class for your group with help from group after analyzing all options • Task Master: Keeps group on task by keeping track of time. Opening Activity Complete activities 1 through 4

7. Choosing a Cell Phone Plan • Section 1.1.1, Page 4 • PART 2 • In this activity, you will make a decision about what cell phone plan you would choose if you were considering a new plan. To do so, complete the following steps: • 1. Survey two other pairs to obtain data for the different cell phone plans. Record all the data on your paper. • 2. Discuss with your partner how you will compare plans. Choose one of the plans based on your data. • 3. In 2-3 sentences explain why you chose this plan over the others. • What possible issues do you foresee with using these steps to choose a cell phone plan?

8. Learning Objective 1 • What is the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)? • Why is the MCDM useful? (Section 1.1 – 1.5)

9. Terms • CRITERIA Objectives or aspects of the alternatives that you wish to either maximize or minimize Everday definition: A principle or standard by which something may be judged or decided • MEASURE A trait that will quantify an aspect of a criterion Everyday definition (noun): A standard unit used to express the size, quantity or degree of something

10. MEASURES CRITERIA • Monthly Service Charge • No. of Minutes per Month, Min. Contract Length, Free Unlimited Texting, Included Data Plan • Quality of Service • COST • CONTRACT FEATURES • PHONE FEATURES

11. Terms CATEGORICAL MEASURE A measure whose scores are classifications (data that are counted). NO INTRINSIC ORDER EXAMPLE : • House Types – Condo, Single family home, Co-op, Bungalow • Eye Color of Freshmen – Blue, Brown, Green, Hazel CAN BE ORDERED OR RANKED EXAMPLE: • Education level (elementary, secondary, college) • Satisfaction level (very dissatisfied, dissatisfied, neutral, satisfied, very satisfied)

12. Terms CONTINUOUS A measure whose scores are MEASURE numeric values that can take on any value in a certain range (data that are measured). EXAMPLE: • Height of Seniors at Community High • Cost of Spirit Wear • Number of Hours students spend doing HW

13. Measure Types Measure Categorical Data Plan 15 GB 12.5 GB 10 GB 7.5 GB Rollover Data YES NO Quality of Service Excellent Very Good Good Minimum Contract 6 Month 1 Year 2 year

14. Measure Types Measure Continuous/ Numerical Monthly Charge Any Numerical Value within a reasonable range Minutes per month

15. Raw Data (Collecting data)

16. Scale Ranges Total Monthly Charge $180 - $250 Overage Fee per GB $10 - $50 Use Proportional Scale to convert to common units.

17. Scale Ranges Quality of Service Excellent 2 Very good 1 Good 0

18. Scale Ranges Roll Over Data Yes 1 No 0

19. Scale Ranges Contract Length none 2 1 year 1 2 years 0

20. Scale Ranges Data Plan 7.5 GB 0 10 GB 0.33 15 GB0

21. Rescale Each Measure to a Common Unit Step 1: Assign 1 to the best value in the range. Assign 0 to the worst value in the range. Step 2: For continuous data, assign intermediate scores proportionally Scaled Score = __|Score – Least Preferred Score| | Most Preferred – Least Preferred| Step 3: For categorical data, assign intermediate scores proportionally or based on your own opinion and values

22. Rescale Each Measure to a Common Unit Continuous Measure Example: Overage fee Least Preferred Score : 50, Assign Common Unit Value : 0 Most Preferred : 10, Assign Common Unit Value : 1 Common Unit Value for 15 = __|Score – Least Preferred Score| | Most Preferred – Least Preferred| = |15 – 50| |10 – 50| = 35 = 7 or 0.875 or ≈ 0.88 40 8

23. Raw Data (Collecting data)

24. Rescaling Values to Common Units (0-1 range)1 = best *The totals do not take into account Isabelle and Angelo’s preferences.

25. Isabella’s’sAssigned weights • Rank (1 – most important) • Assign points • Calculate weight

26. Raw Data (Collecting data)

29. How does this affect decision making • This means that 29% of Isabella’s decision should be based on monthly charge. • Only 3% of Isabella’s decision should be based on rollover data. • Quality of service makes up 24% of Isabella’s decision.

30. CALCULATE THE WEIGHTED SUM

31. EVALUATE YOUR RESULTS • ALWAYS look at your top two choices and determine what was the deciding factors before you just go with the highest number.

32. Multi-Criterion Decision-Making Process Determine: • Criteria • Measures (numerical or categorical) • Gather data for each alternative • Range of Measures • Rescale each measure to a Common Score • Weight measures and objectives (personal) • Calculate weighted sum • Analyze and Interpret Results