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MFO Republic Bank Consumer Confidence Index April 2011

2. Indices of consumer sentiment have been used to evaluate and predict consumer behaviour in several areas including North America, Asia and in the Caribbean. These measures have served as key tools in forecasting changes in the national economies of countries in these regions.This MFO-Republic

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MFO Republic Bank Consumer Confidence Index April 2011

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    1. 1 MFO – Republic Bank Consumer Confidence Index April 2011 Prepared by: 16-18 Tragarete Road Port of Spain Trinidad and Tobago 30th April, 2011

    2. 2 Indices of consumer sentiment have been used to evaluate and predict consumer behaviour in several areas including North America, Asia and in the Caribbean. These measures have served as key tools in forecasting changes in the national economies of countries in these regions. This MFO-Republic Bank Consumer Confidence Index is the first Index in Trinidad and Tobago to formally capture the level of consumer sentiment for the local economy. The Government of Trinidad and Tobago and the business community now have at their disposal, an Index that serves as an Indicator of public economic sentiment and as a predictor of consumer expenditure. The Index is based on a survey of local consumers and essentially measures sentiment on key current and future economic conditions and consumer expenditure expectations. It may be used in conjunction with other official data for a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the economy. Background

    3. 3 The survey methodology applied in the construction of the MFO-Republic Bank Consumer Confidence Index is an exact replication of that used in the Surveys of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan Survey Research Centre. The Index produced by this University is the oldest and perhaps the most well known in the US and indeed, globally. The Survey was conducted door-to-door, with a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 251 households, i.e. the sample matches the distribution of the population re: key demographic variables such as ethnicity, location and socio-economic status. The interviews were conducted door-to-door with the aid of a questionnaire adapted from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index study. The neighbourhoods used in the sample were randomly selected over the broad areas of North East, North West, Central and South Trinidad, and Tobago. Interviews were conducted during the period, April 1st – 12th 2011. They were executed by Market Facts & Opinions (2000) Ltd. field interviewing teams. Each team consisted of four interviewers and one supervisor. NB: The measure Pro-Con indicates where the respondent feels that we will experience a mix of good and bad times. In the case of buying conditions, it refers to respondents’ mixed sentiments on the issue. The MFO/Republic Bank Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers’ opinions of current and expected personal finances, business conditions and purchasing conditions. The Index of Current Consumption (ICC) and the Index of Consumption Expectation (ICE) are incorporated in the Index of Consumer Confidence or Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS). Background

    4. 4 Executive Summary

    5. 5 Consumer Confidence Index The Index of Consumer Confidence experienced its first upswing since the second quarter of 2010. The six-point increase was driven by similar increases in both of the sub-Indices. The nine-point upward movement of the sub-Index of Consumption is notable since this sub-Index experienced a cumulative 47-point decline in the latter part of 2010. These changes mark an upbeat consumer outlook of the present circumstance and an optimistic forecast of the short and mid-term future.

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