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应用 PRECIS 生成用户友好型气候情景数据 Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS

应用 PRECIS 生成用户友好型气候情景数据 Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS. Yinlong XU （许 吟隆）中国农业科学院 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China

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应用 PRECIS 生成用户友好型气候情景数据 Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS

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  1. 应用PRECIS生成用户友好型气候情景数据Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS Yinlong XU （许 吟隆）中国农业科学院 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn 3-5 March, 2010

  2. 提 纲 Outline • 工具和方法 Model and Methodology • 气候变化情景结果分析 Some Analysed Results on Climate Change Scenarios • 情景数据的订正 Correction of Climate Scenarios outputs • 气候情景的验证和应用 Validation of the Corrected Climate Scenarios • 应用举例 Examples of Applications • 存在问题及未来工作展望 Problems and Prospects for Future Work

  3. 降尺度分析示意图/Downscaling GCMs Impacts Models Downscaling Horizontal resolution: hundreds km Local details

  4. 降尺度分析示意图A demo for RCM downscaling A demo for RCM downscaling HadAM3H PRECIS

  5. PRECIS模型/What is PRECIS? • PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies • Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world • Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level • 目的一、发展区域水平的、高分辨 • 率的SRES气候情景 • 目的二、为评价模型提供高分辨率 • 的SRES气候情景

  6. 运行界面/PRECIS Interface

  7. The climate change scenarios in China are developed based on SRES socio-economic assumptions of SRES SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC在2000年出版排放情景特别报告（Special Report for Emission Scenarios）。 SRES由四个情景系列（family）、六个情景组（group）、总共40个情景（scenario）组成。

  8. PRECIS区域/Domain of PRECIS

  9. PRECIS 作业现状/PRECIS Job Status • NCEP re-analysis data:1979-2003 • ECMWF re-analysis data:1957-2001 • ECMWF re-analysis data:1979-1993 • HadCM3（英国） • Baseline (1961-1990):No1No2 No3 • A2 (2071-2100):No1 No2 No3 • B2 (2071-2100) :No1 • A1B (1961-2100):No1 No2 No3 • ECHAM4（德国） • A2 (1961-2100):No1 • B2 (1961-2100) :No1

  10. 最高气温/Maximum Temperature—拉萨/Lhasa、成都/Chengdu

  11. 辐射Solar Radiation—西安/Xi’an、郑州/Zhengzhou

  12. B2情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—740个台站—最高/低气温Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario—Maximum/minimum temperature

  13. B2情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—740个台站—降水Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitation

  14. Temperature precipitation Annual Annual A2情景下气候变化的响应Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under A2 scenario (2080s vs1961-1990) Winter Winter Summer Summer

  15. Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1气候极端事件的指标—之一

  16. Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1气候极端事件的指标—之二

  17. HD HD FD 中国区域未来A2情景下，连续高温日数(HD)(a)、霜冻日数(FD)(b) 、干期(CDD)(c)和湿日数(WD)(d)持续期的频率变化分布。折线是每一个持续期对应的平均的最大(a)、最小温度(b)和降水量(d)的变化。/Changes of Extreme Climate Events of HD, FD, CDD, and WD under A2 Scenario. 2080s vs 1961-1990 CDD WD

  18. 中国区域2080s年平均1. R20mm, 2. 最大5日降水量(RX5day), 3. 简单日降水强度(SDII)相对于1961～1990年气候态的变化(单位：%) a. A2情景, b. B2情景 (a3) (a1) (a2) (b1) (b2) (b3) Changes of Extreme Climate Events of R20mm, RX5day under A2, B2 Scenarios 2080s vs 1961-1990

  19. 中国区域2080s年平均1. 最长连续干期(CDD), 2. 最长连续湿期(CWD), 3. 湿日数(WD)相对于1961～1990年气候态的变化(单位：%) a. A2情景, b. B2情景 (a1) (a2) (a3) (b1) (b2) (b3) Changes of Extreme Climate Events of CDD, CWD, and WD under A2, B2 Scenarios 2080s vs 1961-1990

  20. 高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990 Duration Frequent

  21. 高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990

  22. observation Future Baseline 数据应用(一)Application of the climate scenarios -1 current situation observation assessment impact model future situation

  23. 数据应用(二)Application of the climate scenarios-2 current situation corrected baseline impact model assessment corrected future future situation

  24. 数据订正方法How to correct the scenarios data Baseline climate scenario Baseline comparison Observation Future climate scenario

  25. 图3-1 1979～1993年宁夏地区年极端温度值的年际变化 (a, b：年最高温度的极端高、低值；b, d：年最低温度的极端高、低值，单位：℃) 数据订正结果比较Comparison of the corrected and non-corrected results

  26. 图 1979～1993年15年均宁夏地区日较差的空间分布 (1：观测；2：模拟；3：订正，单位：℃；d/a)

  27. 24 wheat experiment stations 13 maize experiment stations The distribution of agricultural crop stations selected in this study in China HLJ JL XJ NMG DH SX QH XZ CS Rice sites Wheat sites Maize Rice,wheat Maize,wheat Rice,wheat ,maize GY NC FJ KM NN GZ HK 19 rice experiment stations

  28. 山西太谷 （冬小麦） Winter wheat 青海湟源 （春小麦） Spring wheat

  29. 综 合 验 证/Validation （a）~（d）: 订正前模拟值与实测值比较/No Correction （e）~（h）：订正后模拟值与实测值比较

  30. 数据应用方法Data application method 未 来 情 景 Future climate scenario 基准Baseline 观 测 值 observation

  31. 农业影响评估流程图/Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture PRECIS Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad Crop models Crop Varieties Soil Data Yield Changes, etc Management Data

  32. 气候变化情景 GIS technology 中国边界图 （scale 1:1,000,000） 栅格图（50×50km） 土地利用图 土壤数据图 品种分布 种植措施 模型运行 栅格产量结果 确认 应用PRECIS格点情景数据进行影响评估流程图 Flowchart of Impacts Assessments with PRECIS Gridded Scenarios

  33. 有 无 雨养 灌溉 A2 B2 作物影响评价 CO2肥效作用 （小麦-A2） With CO2 fertilization（Wheat-A2） 不同水分条件 （玉米—CO2）Different water conditions （maize—with CO2 fertilization） 不同气候情景 （水稻--灌溉） Different scenarios （Rice--irrigation） 熊伟、居辉博士提供

  34. 极端气候事件对生态系统的影响Extreme events have extreme impacts on natural ecosystems in China The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China under A2 scenario The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China under B2 scenario

  35. 对径流的影响/Changes of runoff in China 黄河流域的干旱/长江流域的洪涝都将加剧 A2 The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario B2 Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario

  36. 存在问题及未来工作展望Problems and future work • Just PRECIS-generated scenarios used 仅PRECIS情景应用于项目影响评估研究 • Problems: uncertainties 问题:不确定性分析不够 • To generate more climate scenarios产生更多情景数据 • To produce much more user-friendly datasets生成用户友好的数据库 • What’s the next-step work? 下一步的工作: • More GCMs 更多的GCM数据 • More RCMs-PRECIS, RegCM3 更多的RCM数据 • More scenarios: more jobs for SRES A1B • more RCPs scenarios • Resolution: 50km25km • 增加分辨率Daily-levelhourly level

  37. Thank you!

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