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PROSPEK EKONOMI INDONESIA 2010 Faisal Basri 1 5 Oktober 2009

PROSPEK EKONOMI INDONESIA 2010 Faisal Basri 1 5 Oktober 2009. Bagian I Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini. The world economy is facing a deep downturn in 2009.

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PROSPEK EKONOMI INDONESIA 2010 Faisal Basri 1 5 Oktober 2009

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  1. PROSPEK EKONOMI INDONESIA 2010Faisal Basri15 Oktober 2009

  2. Bagian IPerkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini

  3. The world economy is facing a deep downturn in 2009 In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish)recovery next year. Not available. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. It’s been a lousy year for forecasters all over the world.)

  4. Global recessions: selected indicators Percent change, unless otherwise indicated Sources:IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2009, p. 14.

  5. Factory-sectorgainssignalglobalrecovery The U.S., Asia and Europe made gains in manufacturing this summer, which may indicate faster-than-expected economic growth for the remainder of the year. Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125182281356876589.html#mod=article-outset-box

  6. Euro Zone: green shoots The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone, Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after falling for four quarters. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html

  7. Europe’s surge signalshope for economicrecovery Workers at a foundry in Schmiedeberg, in eastern Germany. Europe’s economy strengthened unexpectedly in the second quarter, indicating the recession would likely end later this year. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/14/business/global/14euro.html?_r=1&ref=global-home EU Economy to Return to Growth, Commission Says gross domestic product will return to positive territory in the third quarter. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125291620207008139.html

  8. Business confidence is surging across EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1 • Business confidence is surging across European manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead. • Optimism about production trends is back at levels seen before the intensification of the global slowdown late last year, and points to a clear growth in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010. • The so-called “Bric” countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have also seen a strong rebound in manufacturing confidence, ..

  9. Emerging Asia: an astonishing rebound • The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10%. • Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009. • Hong Kong joins Asia’s rapidclimb out of recession. Hong Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had expected, adding to evidence that the recovery was solidifying in much of Asia, according to data published Friday. • China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds during the April-to-June period. • Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.

  10. Change in value of exports (year-over-year) Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html

  11. U.S.: The case for optimism • Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic • Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And now is no time to discount the dangers that still exist. But opening your mind to optimism can help you seize the opportunities ahead .... http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories

  12. U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

  13. Deepening the pain: job losses pile up Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment rate jump to 9.8% in September 2009, a 26-year high. Source: U.S. Labor Department.

  14. U.S. consumer confidence index Indeks kepercayaan konsumen adalah salah satu leading economic indicator bagi perekonomian.Setelah mengalami penurunan pada bulan Juni dan Juli, consumer Confidence Index naik tajam pada bulan Agustus menjadi 54.1 dari 47.4 sebulan sebelumnya. Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

  15. U.S. economy is still weak * Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index Sources:Bloomberg

  16. Bagian IIPerekonomian Indonesia

  17. The transmission of stress Sources:IMF, April 2009.

  18. Sumber daya tahan • Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS. • Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik. • Current account masih surplus. • Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil. • Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean. • Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa. • Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $50 per barrel. • Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam CPI mengalami deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir). • Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.

  19. Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown Source:Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.

  20. Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia Ingat: Peran Singapura !!! Asean Indonesia Sources:ADB, March 2009

  21. Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal WSJ, March 21, 2009 Stimulus Dilemma for China Spending on Public Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009 terjun bebas. Pemerintah “pasrah.” Stimulus jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk pembenahan infrastruktur fisik. Segalanya sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.

  22. The World competitiveness scoreboard Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.

  23. Economic temperature cooler .. Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % 18.4 14.6 percent 4.6 2.8 2003 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: BPS.

  24. BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen Source: Bank Indonesia.

  25. Heart beat has been appreciating ... (Rupiah per US$) Source: Bank Indonesia

  26. Foreign reserves increasedmore than $7bil. (US$ million) SBY era Source: Bank Indonesia.

  27. External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception Too big, too high Bloomberg commodity price index Should be here Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008

  28. JSX index recovered significantly Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18. (Jakarta composite index)

  29. Balance of payments (US$ million) Source: Bank Indonesia.

  30. Indonesia’s post-crisis journey Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % 6.6 6.4 6.4 5.2 4.4 4.0 Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky” Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction Crisis peak Source: BPS.

  31. Low quality — Sectoral growth rate(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %) Source: BPS.

  32. Low quality growth, 2000-2009*(%) Non-tradable GDP Tradable * January-June. Source: BPS.

  33. GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) 2009 Source: BPS..

  34. Foreign merchandise trade Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni (m-to-m) Billion US$ Growth (yoy) Description * January-August Source: BPS.

  35. Trade balance of oil and oil products * January-July. Source: BPS.

  36. Trade balance of oil and gas US$ million * January-February. Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

  37. Indeks produksi industri bulanan Sumber: BPS .

  38. Otomotif dansepeda motor mulai naik..

  39. Konsumsi semen naikke level tertinggi

  40. Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Visitors: Jan-Jul 2008 = 3,469,968 Jan-Jul 2009 = 3,558,887 Growth: Jul 2009 (m-t-m) = 7.78% Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 2.56% Sources:BPS

  41. Indeks tendensi konsumen Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.

  42. Indeks tendensi bisnis Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.

  43. Bagian IIILingkunganPolitikdanKecenderunganPascaPemiludanPilpres

  44. Decoupling between politics and economic activities? Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8 March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than 300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world. Approximately 1500 delegates from 35 countries attended the 5th World Islamic Economic Forum, in Jakarta, 1-4 March 2009. The 42thAnnual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank will be held in Bali, 4-5 May 2009. The Seminar Series and other ancillary meetings will commence from 2 May 2009. World Ocean Conference, to be held in Manado on May 11-14, 2009.

  45. Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung sangat damai. Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya penguatan kelembagaan. Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik kiri maupun kanan  konvergensi ideologi atau, bahkan, non-ideologis. Praktis tak terjadi perubahan rezim. Yang sekarang bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru: Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Kesra  kompromistik. Kecenderunganumum

  46. Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5 persen. Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2009 hanya ada 9(sembilan)partai. Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan partai oposisi akan lebih tegas. Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks & balances yang lebih efektif. Penciutanjumlahpartai

  47. Partai “kiri” tak ada yang lolos. Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.) Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN) Partai tengah menggelembung (PD, Golkar, Gerindra, Hanura) Kian konvergen

  48. Peluang jangan disia-siakan • Tidak membutuhkan proses transisi yang panjang, karena incumbent. • Pilpres satu putaran memberikan waktu yang cukup leluasa untuk mempersiapkan segalanya dengan lebih baik. • Tim ekonomi pada kabinet mendatang diharapkan kredibel, kompeten dan kompak. • RPJM realistik dan menukik atau fokus..

  49. Bagian IVPROSPEK 2009

  50. The world economic outlook, 2009-2010 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009..

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