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The Middle East. Now and then, Sunni vs. Shia, the state of nations and ISIS. Why was it called the Middle East?. The Arab world in the 8 th Century. The Ottoman Empire – 16 and 17 th Centuries. Today it looks like this. What the Arab world invented and refined.
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The Middle East Now and then, Sunni vs. Shia, the state of nations and ISIS
What the Arab world invented and refined • Musical scales and notation • Maps • Surgery and surgical instruments/ hospitals • Cleanliness • Algebra and advances in mathematics • Universities • Clocks • Coffee • gardens
Why did the Arab world go backwards? • In the 9th Century they used to rule the world. Bagdad, Cairo and Damascus lead the world in architecture, medicine, maths and astronomy. • Centres of learning, tolerance and trade– Spain. • Yet now are stagnating, at the mercy of militias and fragile. • Do not separate mosque and state which stunts institutions, no give and take of parliamentary discourse. No equal rights for women, free press and independent courts. • Economies centrally planned – privatisation is for your friends.
Where it all began • Arab revolt against the Turks. • End of the Ottomans and Sykes-Picot. • France – Syria and Lebanon. Britain – Palestine and Transjordan (later Israel and Jordan). Doomed to fail? • Italy creates Libya. • Colonial powers divide and conquer. • In Mesopotamia Britain joins three provinces and calls it Iraq. Shia in the south, Sunni centre and Kurds in the north. • Allegiances towards the ethnic group/ tribe, religious affiliation. No sense of national identity.
Meanwhile the sleeper issue - Israel • Balfour Declaration 1917 • Western Interference again in the region? • Israel created in 1948 out of the state of Palestine. • Jews arrived in greater numbers after WW2. • However Arabs had lived there for a thousand years. • 1948 – 1st Arab Israeli war. • War forced Palestinians off their lands and into refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon where they still are in large numbers today.
The Arab – Israeli wars • 2nd Arab – Israeli War – 1956 • 3rd War – 1967 – 6 day war • 4th War – Yom Kippur 1973 • Possible use of nuclear weapons in this one? • A symbol of western meddling in the Arab world? • Palestinians now living in Gaza and West Bank in Israel. • Israel threatens to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability • Currently all Arab states are sidetracked with their own problems.
Why is Jerusalem important to three religions – the church, the mosque and the wall • For Jews the wailing wall is the last remnant of the Holy temple. • Al Aqsa mosque – for Muslims it was from here that Mohammed ascended into heaven. • For Christians here is the Holy Sepulchre church where Christ was buried.
Internal divisions Sunni vs. Shia (Shi’ite) • 85% of Arabs are Sunnis. The rest Shia of various types (Druze, Imami, Alawi, Rafidi etc). • Conflict stems from its very origins. • Mohammed dies 632AD. • Conflict over succession – the most able or keep it in the family? • Abu Bakr appointed, a companion of Mohammed. Shia back Ali, the son in law who is assassinated after a 5 year term in 660. • Ali’s son Hussain killed at Karbala in Iraq by Umayyad Caliphate.
Sunni Vs. Shia continued • Shia look to descendants of the prophet and regard Ali and Hussein as the legitimate rulers. • 12th Imam disappears in Damascus AD939. • Shia say he ascended to heaven and will return. • Khomeini was often referred to as “the hidden Imam” or the 13th Imam. • Shia greatly persecuted by the Sunnis. • Shia majorities in Iraq and Iran (90%) • Shia 10% in Saudi Arabia, Syria 15% – seen as a fifth column – agents of Iran. • Shia – victim/martyrdom complex.
Iran vs. Saudi Arabia –Sunni vs. Shia now • The defining conflict of the Middle East (not counting Israel). Saudis leader of the Sunnis. • Saudis worry about Iran going nuclear. • Fear of the Shia crescent across the Middle East – battle for influence. Iran to take over southern Iraq? • Saudis attack Yemen to stop Shi’ite Houthis backed by Iran. • USA/Egypt support Sunni Saudi Arabia and Russia supports Iran/Syria along with Turkey. • Most oil in the ME in Shia areas. • US lifting sanctions against Iran worries the Saudis. • Saudis flooding the oil market - $672 billion in reserves.
The other states - Iraq, Syria, Libya and Egypt. What they have in common. • Very poor (Syria and Egypt in particular). • Enormous bureaucracies. • Long lived regimes – Assad (father and son), Sadat and Mubarak, Gaddafi – 42 years. Once they are gone tribal loyalties come to the fore. • Very few control the wealth. • Corruption and nepotism . • Egypt and its Army. • Very young populations that are growing rapidly. Egypt 90 million with 75% under 25. • Iraq, Syria and Libya unlikely to survive as states
What they have in common 2 • Repressive state security apparatus. Not just against individuals but ethnic minorities (Saddam Hussein and the Kurds). • An oppositional culture (against Israel, the West ) useful distraction but did not work in the Arab Spring. • Loyalty to the tribe, ethnic group or religion comes first. • All had distrust of fundamentalists. Egypt and the Muslim brotherhood for example. • Repression drives them underground where they are harder to spot and control • Leaders become reclusive and paranoid – Gaddafi/ Hussein • Leadership Cult develops – no Saddam Hussein – no Iraq. Billboards with their photos and a map.
Which led to The Arab spring • Started with fruit seller in Tunisia who set himself alight to protest over government harassment in Jan 2011. Assad/Syria and the graffiti children. Army shoots to repress revolt – military defectors form the Free Syrian Army. • Spring – a movement to establish freedom and democracy in Arab states? • End January Algeria, Egypt, Oman, Jordan all have demonstrations. • By November, 4 governments toppled and another 6 shaken up and promising reforms. • But by 2012 – Libya, Syria and Yemen in civil war . Egypt throws out democratically elected government.
Why it only partially worked. • None on course to becoming a peaceful, stable democracy • Strong leaders replaced by Islamists who are no more capable of reform. • Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey show that Islam is not incompatible with democracy. • Morocco, Jordan, Tunisia and Kuwait edging towards reform giving people more of a say. • Real Arab spring is in the mind – the process has started. • On the other hand there is Syria. Is the American push for freedom and democracy flawed in this region. Are they better off with Assad – Gaddafi – Saddam Hussein?
The Kurds • Chaos in the Middle East creates opportunities for the stateless Kurds. Also promised land post WW1 – 98% Sunni • 30 million inhabitants live within the borders of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran. Most live in Turkey. • 2003 - US legitimises Kurdistan and thousands return from overseas • Turks invest in new Kurdistan which is the only stable peaceful part of Iraq but does not want them to get independence. • Basis on oil port of Kirkuk taken from ISIS • Syrian Kurds ally with the PKK which fights Turkey. Bad Kurds? But effective fighters against IS. Peshmerga – women fighters. Sunni Kurds vs. Arabs. Many acronyms as a result of fractioning of Kurds in Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran • Their time has come – seats in Turkish parliament, pushing to victory in Iraq and Syria and recognition of Kurdistan.
The Kurds and Turkey • Kurds co-ordinate US Air strikes in Syria. • Kurds fighting in Syria allied to outlawed PKK. Turkey shares border with Syria. • Turkey agrees to help the US fight IS provided the border with Turkey is a Kurd free zone. Turkey does not want a Kurdish state in Syria. Turkey bombing Kurds more often than bombing IS? • US needs Incirlik air base in Turkey. • Erdogan breaks two year truce with Kurds to win over nationalist parties in the Turkish parliament that has recently made gains. • Kurds worried that the US will leave them high and dry. Israel backs them. • Turkey worried that a Kurdish state will encourage Turkish Kurds to join them resulting in loss of territory. • Turkey needs a ceasefire to repatriate Syrian refugees in Turkey.
Kurdistan Now Later?
Internal conflict – Iran – Iraq War • From 1980 – 1988 over access to the Shatt al Arab waterway. Started by Saddam Hussein who attacked a country disorganised by revolution. • Half a million dead? 40 million Iranians vs. 13 million Iraqis. Iraq supported by Saudis and Kuwait. Iran by the Soviets and Israel. • Indiscriminate attacks on civilian centres, oil fields, tankers, chemical weapons – mainly by Iraq. Artillery War. War of the cities. • US and USSR remained neutral for the first few years then backed Iraq. Soviets because Iran outlawed the Communist party there and US because Iran threatened to block the straits of Hormuz. Israel backs Iran – hostage crisis. • Ended in stalemate.
The straits of Hormuz – a choke point • the strait is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles, separated by a two-mile buffer.
The wars against Iraq • 1991 – US abandons Saddam Hussein for his invasion of Kuwait. • Operation “Desert storm”. • US encouraged Kurds in the North and Shia in the South to revolt after they attacked Hussein’s Republican Guard and started the demise of the Iraqi government. • Which they did and they then abandoned them. • No fly zones in North and South to protect Kurds and Shia. • Kurds set up Kurdistan – temporary for the US but not for Kurds.
So where did Islamic State come from? • 2003 – US invades Iraq to take Bagdad. Bush finishes his father’s work? Regime toppled but many Baathists out of office and could not be employed. • Formed al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) • Imprisoned together and radicalised. • When Assad declared war in Syria it was their chance – Al Nusra front effective in Syria – came back and formed ISIS ( Iraq and Syria) later IS ( more Global) • Played on Sunnis aggrieved feelings. • Sold oil through Turkey to fund campaigns. • No US ground troops against ISIS. • Supplanted Al Qaeda as drones took out its top command and Bin Laden died. • Effective use of social media.
So • June 2014 appear out of nowhere in North Iraq and drive Iraqi army before the. • Iraqi army beaten by a force one tenth their size – weapons abandoned. • Sleeper cells? In one week they controlled Mosul and Tikrit and had 5 million under their control.
Why? • Nuir al Malaki in power for 8 years in Iraq until 2014. Shia dominated government now as well as in the army. Take revenge on Sunnis. • ISIS controls oil fields – able to pay its soldiers $400 per month • ISIS massacres abandoned cadets and puts it on the net. No attempt to mitigate war crimes. • Rounds up Yazidis (Gnostics) and massacres 5000 and attacks Kurds in the northern Mountains. Leads to US air strikes. • Turkey a porous border for ISIS? • June 2015 tide turns – ISIS pays arrive late. Government troops retake, Tikrit, Falluja and Ramadi. • March 2016 battle for Mosul begins. Al Malaki now vice president since 2014. PM now is Al Abadi. Technocrat, oil revenue sharing with Kurds, British educated engineer. Removes 50,000 ghost soldiers from the payrolls. Corruption still endemic - Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr followers storm parliament in 2016.
Russia backs Assad – bombs rebels . Uses Iran as an Air base and Cruise missiles from the Med. US backs rebels but not IS. Russia not talking to the US Air Force after the cruise missile attack in April? In Syria
The US in the Middle East • A confused policy - Missile strike – a new policy or not? Is the US now not accepting Assad as a fixture? No more isolationism? • Backing the Kurds as a land army moved Turkey towards Russia. Turkey increasingly sees NATO and the US as hostile. • Islamisation of the anti Assad forces. • Russian policy in Syria has been to stop an Islamic government at all costs and it seems to have worked. • Iran now a major player after success in Syria. • Saudis and Egyptians no longer confident of US support? • Trump may have no option but to abandon the Middle East leaving it to Russia, Iran and Turkey – an unholy alliance. What about his supporters?
Trump and the Middle East • Lots of escalation but no coherence and no consultation with allies. • Yemen, Syria, Mosul bombing campaigns – generals given freer hand to operate drone attacks. Yemen escalating rapidly- massive drone/bombing strikes with “fire free Zones ( change from Obama). Removing the arms embargo. • US troops set up artillery base in Syria to retake Raqqa from IS. • More troops for Iraq and Afghanistan in addition to the 5000 – 8,4000 still there. • April 2017 – cruise missile strike on Syrian air base. Inconsistencies? Is there a plan?
Trump and Syria – questions without answers • Gutting of the State department – they need them now. • Cutting back of USAID/soft power. Mattis - “If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition ultimately,” • Syrian missile strike – what’s the plan? Where is the red line – Tillerson, Haley, Spicer all have different views – Trump’s is not known. With Iran inside Iraq but not in Syria. • Is the US interested in forming a stronger Arab-Western alliance against the Islamic State, while also trying to broker a political solution? Is the US prepared to let President Bashar al-Assad stay in place? • Who will pay for the flood of refugees still coming out of Syria or its future reconstruction?
The future if the Middle East • Redrawing of boundaries? • Oil becomes less important as it runs out? • Syria divided. • Iraq partitioned. • Kurdistan? Will the Turks accept it? • Russians and Syria – not another Afghanistan? Missile strikes cements Russia in place in Syria? • US long term policy is to contain Iran? • Syria where the future will be played out. • Saudis and Iran conflict. The Shi’ite crescent?
The Middle East– looking forward • Many Middle East states are not good at State craft – Israel, Turkey and Iran the exceptions. A weak Arab state system allows all outsiders in – no one state can be hegemonic – not Iran, Turkey or Israel or any of the non Arab states. The state in Libya has disappeared. • “green shoots”? The populations of the Middle East are overwhelmingly young. They may never get jobs but there is generational change. 40% under 30 are unemployed. • Women an undervalued resource – vast numbers in the Gulf and Iran are University educated but rarely employed beyond that. • Egypt the key – if that collapses then what? Will Turkey compete with Iran for influence in the Middle East? • A Marshall Plan for the region or would it be wasted? After an Arab-Israeli peace? The West just wants to leave.
