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Department of Agriculture, Government of Bihar Power Point Presentation on. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture Sector for Agriculture Road Map 2012-17. By:- Mr. Ganesh Ram Director, BAMETI, Bihar, Patna. Major Constraints due to climate change.
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Department of Agriculture, Government of Bihar Power Point Presentation on Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture Sector for Agriculture Road Map 2012-17 By:- Mr. Ganesh Ram Director, BAMETI, Bihar, Patna.
Major Constraints due to climate change • Gradually increase of minimum and mean temperature during Kharif and Rabi. • Decrease in precipitation/ rainfall • Sometimes delayed monsoon. • Sometimes Early Monsoon but long dry spell. • Intermittent and uneven distribution of rainfall in Bihar. • Low rainfall causes drought or soil moisture deficit. • Drought in South Bihar whereas Flood in north Bihar at the same time. • Sometimes flood due to excessive rain. • Delay Paddy sowing resulting into delay harvesting which causes delayed wheat sowing resulting into less yield due to high temperature.
Climatic variability has directly impacts • Growth of crops. • Yield of crop. • Soil fertility, water resources and water table. • Incidents of insects, pest and diseases. • More immergence of weed. • Food shortages and rising prices which in turn endanger food and livelihood security of the local communities.
Present Climate Scenario Rainfall variability in Bihar Note – This is the situation in the past 10 yrs.
Future Scenario of climate trends in Bihar According to future climate projections the average annual land temperatures will likely increase by 2°C by the mid-21st century (compared to the baseline period; 1986-2005). mean temperatures are likely to increase by 1°C-1.4°C and 2.2°C–2.9°C by 2020 and 2050, respectively, across India, with increases augmented in the winter season. Climate modelling have indicated for Bihar region • Projected increase of temperature is likely to be 2°C – 4ºC between baseline (1970-2000) and 2050s and increase in number of days of maximum temperatures above 35ºC is likely to affect the agricultural sector. • Projected increase of temperature by 2.5°C – 4°C for period 2071-2100based on baseline data from 1961 – 1990. • Projected trends shows increase in frequency and intensity of precipitation with precipitation variability of -25% to +30 %. • Increase in mean annual precipitation by 0.3 – 3% in 2030s and 0.6% (around 5mm) in monsoon season. • Mean monsoon precipitation likely to increase by 9-16% in 2080s relative to 1970s baseline.
Annual temperature and rainfall trends over Bihar (Based up on 58 years of weather data) • Temp. Upto 2050 will increase upto020 to 040C • Rainfall deviation 15 to 30%.
Future Strategy for developing Climate resilience • Climate Smart Agriculture -
Adaptation and Mitigation measures Proposed Interventions • Laser Land Levelling • Direct Seeded Rice with climate resilient varieties • Raised bed planting Arhar • Alternate wetting/drying irrigation in rice • Water harvesting and field bunding in rice • Raised bed Planting (Maize) • Zero Tillage of Wheat • Raised bed Planting (Wheat)
Zero tillage lentil • Raised bed planting Mustard • Zero tillage mung bean • Nutrient expert/green seeker based nutrient management • Community irrigation
Telemetric based high resolution short term weather forecasting (GP level) • Climate inclusive risk assessment for agriculture sector (District scale). • Diesel subsidy • Demonstration of climate resilience crops like Maize , Jawar, Bajra, Marua and Millets • Demonstration of climate resilience crop varieties viz. Swarna Sub-1 and Sajbhagi etc. • Water harvesting structure • Agro – forestry
1. Introduction • The state of Bihar with a geographical area of 94.2 thousand square kilometre is subdivided by the River Ganga into two separate physiographical area, north Bihar covering an area of 53.3 thousand square kilometre and south Bihar covering an area of 40.9 thousand square kilometre. • The state is subdivided into three main agro-climatic zones based on its soil characteristics, precipitation pattern, temperature and terrain characteristics. • The major agro-climatic zones are Zone I (North west alluvial plain), Zone II (North east alluvial plain and Zone III (south Bihar alluvial plain) which has its own potential and prospects. All of these zones consist of Char, Maun, Tal and Diara lands which are generally submerged during the monsoon season.
Bihar being an agrarian state, agriculture is the key to overall development of the state economy. • Nearly 81% of the population is involved in agriculture and allied activities which is much higher than the national average. • The State agriculture faces multifaceted challenges that emanate bothfrom within the system and also from outside. Low productivity across all theenterprises, crop, horticulture, milk, meat, egg and fishes has traditionally described thestate agriculture. • The low productivity has consequential effects on low income andhigh poverty of its population.
The spatial and temporal distribution of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) during June- September largely affects agricultural yields. • The departure in minimum and maximum temperatures from average values influences plant physiological conditions viz., respiration, water requirement, and growth, thereby affecting yields. Climatic variability directly impacts yields at crop level and also affects soil quality; water resources; brings in pests, diseases and weeds, etc. further aggravating the impact on the cropping system, thereby reducing the yield per hectare of land or per unit of livestock at the farm level. • The adverse impacts of climatic variability on agriculture production at farm level gets aggregated to the level of the food system in terms of food shortages and rising prices, which can also endanger food and livelihood security.
Climate change may have significant effect on the quality of plantation and cash crops such as fruits, vegetables, tea, coffee, aromatic & medicinal plants, etc. • An increase in temperature also leads to increased evapo-transpiration, thereby lowering groundwater table and adversely affecting irrigation potential. • At some places, increased surface temperature coupled with reduced rainfall may lead to accumulation of salts in upper soil layers.
Bihar is exposed to multi-hazards like floods, drought, hailstorms, cyclone and earthquake and a number of natural and manmade disasters which affect the productivity of the agriculture sector inspite of having fertile soil, sufficient rainfall and groundwater availability. • 74% of the total geographical covering the north Bihar region is prone to floods while south Bihar is exposed to droughts. • Thus it is imperative to understand the vulnerability of agriculture sector to various natural hazards.
2. Vision: The specific adaptation and mitigation measures will be implemented to reduce the climate change vulnerability and also to combat the impact of climate change as compared to the business- as-usual situation with the following main objectives:- • Improve level of awareness and capacity of those involved with the farming system to strengthen farmer's ability to cope with climate change. Blend traditional practices and scientific approaches in a participative manner to encourage a high rate of farmer’s adoption to climate resilient agricultural technologies. • Identifying and targeting different climate smart agriculture interventions in accordance to farmer’s socio-economic and bio-physical condition. • Reducing environmental footprints through promotion of Conservation Agriculture based sustainable intensification technologies.
Identifying and developing climate smart villages as community basis in each district under climate smart agriculture. • Develop Early Warning System for the agriculture sector incorporating current weather, short term weather forecast and ICT based climate inclusive agro-advisory. • Post – harvest management of agricultural produce under climate risks. • Scale appropriate value chain mechanization solution for small holders. • Long term monitoring of natural resources and environmental footprints of diversity of agricultural production systems and Climate Smart Agriculture interventions. • Developing location specific climate resilient and resource use efficient cropping systems through optimizing rotations integrating location-specific component technologies. • Strategic research on developing and validating stress tolerant, high yielding varieties of wheat, maize, rice, pulses, oilseeds and vegetables.
3. Past and Present scenario of Climate trends in Bihar Trend analysis of 58 years of data from 12 observatories of Indian Meteorological Department reveal the signs of climate change induced variability in intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall events similar to the national scenario which details are given below: Annual temperature and precipitation trends over Bihar (based on 58 years of data from 12 IMD stations (Source: BAU, Sabour)
The analysis of the historical data shows • Increasing trend of minimum and mean temperature in all Agro Climatic Zones. • Decrease in maximum temperature in all Agro Climatic Zones except Zone II. • Decreasing trend of rainfall in Agro Climatic Zones II and Zone IIIB whereas increasing trend in Zone I and Zone IIIA.
4. Future scenario of climate trends in Bihar A. Monthly maximum and minimum temperature by 2050 Simulated projection in monthly maximum and minimum temperatures by 2050 for Bihar (simulated using MarkSim, Hadley model for RCP 8.5 - 2050s)
B. Monthly rainfall by 2050 Simulated projection in monthly rainfall by 2050 for Bihar (simulated using MarkSim, Hadley model for RCP 8.5 - 2050s) According to the above climate projectionsof Bihar for 2050 increasing trends in both maximum and minimum temperatures (2-40C) in every months coupled with much more variability (-25 to + 30%) in the monthly rainfall patterns has been predicted.
5. Climate Change and vulnerability analysis • The productivity potential of crops is dependent upon atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, wind, solar radiations and RH etc. apart from edaphic and biotic environment. Future climate projection scenarios are mainly based on increased level of atmospheric CO2. Though increasing CO2 may increase the productivity potential of crops, but other meteorological variables may cause reverse effect. • Studies on climate change as per the predictions by general circulation models (GCMs) indicate that agricultural production will not only be affected by the thermal stress experienced by the crop during its critical growth stages, but also due to water availability. • There is evidence of negative impacts of changing climate on yield of wheat, rice and other crops with variable magnitude. • The composite exposure computed spatially using different indicators of exposure viz. maximum and minimum temperatures and the intensity of low and high rainfall during Kharif and Rabi seasons by assigning weightage to each indicator revealed that many districts of Bihar have high exposure which indicates high vulnerability to climate change.
5.1. Impact on major crops (rice, wheat and maize) in terms of increase or decrease in yield percentage (%) due to climate change as computed using GCM predictions of Hadley Centre Coupled Model ver 3.0 (HadCM3). The above table shows climate change impact on various varieties of rice, wheat and maize representing future projections (2020, 2050, and 2080).
Note: - IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (2000) describes *A2 scenario:The A2 scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines. **B2 scenario:The B2 scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.
6. Major Constraints: • Gradual increase of minimum and mean temperature during Kharif and Rabi. • Number of cold days and nights have decreased while warm days and nights are increasing including higher frequency of heat waves. • Precipitation pattern shows a large spatio-temporal variability with an increase in intensity of precipitation and decrease in number of rainy days and total annual precipitation. • Sometimes delayed monsoon. • Sometimes Early Monsoon but long dry spell. • Intermittent and uneven distribution of rainfall in Bihar. • Low rainfall causes drought or soil moisture deficit. • Recurrent drought in South Bihar whereas flood in north Bihar simultaneously. • Delay Paddy sowing resulting into delay harvesting which causes delayed wheat sowing resulting into less yield due to high temperature.
7. Strategy to combat the impact of Climate change • The interventions, their physical and financial targets are given below 7.1The proposed interventions to be executed by Department of Agriculture, Govt. of Bihar
7.2 The proposed interventions to be executed by BISA-CIMMYT, BAU, Dr. RPCAU and ICAR-ICPE
