Lampros Stergioulas Department of Information Systems & Computing,

1. A FORESIGHT STUDY OF TECHNOLOGY-ENHANCED PROFESSIONAL LEARNING IN EUROPEChallenges, Technologies, and Future Trends Lampros Stergioulas Department of Information Systems & Computing, Brunel University, West London, UK

2. Objectives of this study The ultimate aim is to build a roadmap that will: • integrate business drivers with enabling technologies to provide a framework for coordinating R&D to meet the challenges for European Technology Enhanced Professional Learning (TEPL) • develop a value accumulating, ongoing roadmapping process with a high potential for sustainability • Promote a knowledge network of roadmapping that amplifies the efforts of various groups and crystallizes them at European level • Time line: 0-10 years from now

3. What is a roadmap? • A Roadmap is not a tool for predicting the future • A Roadmap is a time-based plan that defines • where we are (state of the art) • where we want to go (vision statements) • how to get there (action plan) • A Roadmap is a learning process for the interested community

4. Components of the ProLearn roadmap Where we want to go? How to get there? Vision: tacit idea representing the desired future state Expressed future state: instantiation of the vision in a formal and systematic way (vision statements = challenges) The underlying concepts, their contexts and their relationships are analysed, articulated and modelled Gap analysis: between the current state of the art and desired future state (critical capabilities needed to turn into reality one or more vision statements) Actions: a portfolio of short-, mid- and long-term actions and recommendations, based on the gap analysis

5. Desired future “finding the currents that lead you where you want to go” (proactive), instead of “floating in the currents you are presently in” (reactive) Everyone tries to formulate their own desired future, as a result of this no one will have the desired future, and the reality will focus on negotiation, ongoing interplay that will actually form the future. our approach is to start by inventing the future and to “plan backwards” from there in order to link up with today

6. Roadmap framework • In our context, roadmapping is a knowledge creating process that spirals outwards from the core partners of our Network (individuals, groups, the whole Network) to the entire scientific community and industry. • Therefore, it is both a learning activity and a knowledge creation process for the community that builds the roadmap. • The key to knowledge creation lies in the four SECI modes of knowledge conversion, which occur when tacit knowledge and explicit knowledge interact with each other (Nonaka). “ Because tacit knowledge includes mental models and beliefs in addition to know-how, moving from tacit to the explicit is really a process of articulating one’s vision of the world – what it is and what it ought to be.” Nonaka

7. SECI Modesof knowledge creation • Socialization (sharing tacit knowledge): The process of sharing experiences (tacit knowledge), thereby creating new tacit knowledge. • Externalization (converting tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge): The process of articulation and conversion of tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge. • Combination(Systematic combining of explicit knowledge): The process of restructuring and aggregating explicit knowledge into new explicit knowledge. • Internalization (Internalizing new knowledge as tacit knowledge by the organization): The process of reflecting on explicit knowledge and embodying explicit knowledge into tacit knowledge.

8. THE ROADMAPPING KNOWLEDGE PROCESS MODEL – A continuous process Systemizing ba Conceptual modeling tools OUTPUT ManifestosGap Analysis INPUT Context Maps Reflective Analysis tools Knowledge Connecting Deducing Combination Explicit Dialoguing ba Scientific Community & Industry Exercising ba OUTPUT Explicit Vision Collective perspective Internalization INPUT ManifestosGap Analysis Articulating Conceptualizing ReflectingEmbodying Externalization Associate Core INPUT - Scenarios - Trends - Seed visions OUTPUT Increased Under-standing Actions & time plans Tacit Socialization Tools supporting debate Originating ba INPUT networking Activities projects OUTPUT Increased individual understanding Community building events ExperiencingEmpathizing

9. Scenarios • 25 scenarios were processed and analyzed • Scenario sources: • PROLEARN: 11 scenarios • “Transforming knowledge 2003”, Paul Lefrere: 7 scenarios • Time2Learn project: 1 scenario • ROCKET project: 2 scenarios • Ariel Project: 4 scenarios.

10. The Scenarios The primary focus of the scenario Training Contexts The driving forces behind the scenario, Why this scenario? Drivers Priority Areas Where the focus should be if we wanted to realize the scenario? Challenges Technology Business Socio-Cultural Political Scenario analysis process

11. The six main sessions of the symposium:Industry challenges in Professional Learning: Time-to-proficiency, Competency and Human Capital Management. How to promote Learning Culture, Knowledge Sharing and Innovation? The theme was introduced by Richard Straub (IBM, eLIG)Trends that are shaping the E&T in Europe: economical, socio-cultural and political. The theme was introduced by Claudio Dondi (Scienter)Learners perspective: Continuous Professional Development, employability, flexibility and survivability of European citizens; New paradigms of learning. The theme was introduced by Mervyn Jones (Imperial College, IACEE)Technology trends and their impact on learning, training, processes and organizations. The theme was introduced by Wayne Hodgins (Autodesk, IEEE)New forms of organization: partnerships, changing workplace organizations, networked organizations, value-networks. The theme was introduced by Wayne Hodgins (Autodesk, IEEE)Prolearn perspective: Future directions of Technology Enhanced Professional Learning - Learning Manifesto. The theme was introduced by Erik Duval (Ariadne) and Vana Kamtsiou (NCSR Demokritos)

12. Symposium main conclusions • Greater understanding is needed of what the knowledge worker needs are and what the skills and competencies in the new knowledge society and knowledge work should be. • An important change relating to the organization of jobs and company structures is emerging, which tends towards the demise of hierarchy as well as of specific titles and job descriptions, with a strong tendency towards flexible types of jobs defined by the particular “project” assignments. • An increased imbalance of education was identified between higher ranked and lower ranked employees, as well as between small and large enterprises. In reality, “the future is already here but unequally distributed”. • The most-likely-to-succeed future type of training will be the “personalized learning”, which offers to the specific person the right skills, at the right time within the specific context (work, social, technical, cognitive etc). • We also observe an increasing convergence between formal and informal training.

13. Symposium main conclusions • The vision for the future Knowledge Workers focuses on three main axes: • promotion of innovation, creativity, proficiency and flexibility in learning and work, • maximum employability of the European labor force, and • equal opportunities in education and career. • The management of human resources has to change and learning has to be integrated with the working and business processes. • Time-to-proficiency becomes increasingly important in order for the European companies to stay competitive. • The training programmes have to be aligned with the strategic goals of the enterprise. • A tendency of convergence between work and personal life is observed, where the lines between learning and work, work and leisure, and also formal, informal, non formal forms of learning, are becoming more and more blurred. • The need of greater flexibility in professional development is a stress-inducing factor for the employees, as it creates intense feelings of insecurity towards work.

14. Major Trends in TEPL Today entity Tomorrow Producers Market Consumers Standardized In-house Products and services Customized Outsourced Verticalposition-based hierarchy Horizontal project-based interdisciplinary teams Company structures Self –employed Interests & motives Aging Employees National identities Young People More independence More responsibility Employees Close supervision

15. Major Trends in TEPL Today entity Tomorrow Simpler Slowly changing More complex Faster changing Skills Work patterns Parallel (24/7/365) Serial (8 hours) Customer perceived values Value nets Low capital costs Value chains Business processes Companies Provision of services Production of goods

16. Powerful trends Work Longer Globalization …make us… Work harder Competition Travel more Labor shortage Learn faster Work complexity • eLearning market trend: towards a commodity market and commercialization of learning

17. Core vision of TEPL in 2015 • “Support knowledge workers with technology-enhanced learning • by promoting motivation, performance, collaboration, innovation • and commitment to lifelong learning.” • A knowledge worker is someone who: • doesn’t just consume knowledge but who is able to create it • reflects critically on every level of activity in the organization and contributes back.

18. The Six Prolearn Vision Statements “Everyone should be able to learn anything at anytime at anyplace” (personalization – adaptation) “Access to professional learning for all – extending the knowledge based society” IST challenge (3G, IpV6, nanotechnologies, convergence, web services, ambient intelligence scenario) V6 V1 Social inclusion TEPL “Socio-economic systems – market take up” V5 V2 “Learning as a means to support and enhance work performance” Socio-economic Systems : Market take-up V4 • Industry challenges: • Performance support • Continuous improvement • Incremental development • Processed based integrated • learning) V3 “Learning as a means to increase employability” (flexibility and survivability of employees) “Promote innovation and creativity and entrepreneurship” Learner’s perspective: Continuous personal Development Recognition and portability Of learning achievements • Industry challenges: • Innovation • Entrepreneurship • ability to change • Competency and performance • management