Managing risk: it’s not rocket science

1. Risk Compensationand the management of road safety22 February 2005Institute of Transport and logisticsUniversity of Sydneyjohn.adams@ucl.ac.uk

2. Managing risk: it’s not rocket science it’s more complicated

3. Three kinds of Risk e.g. cholera: need a microscope to see it and a scientific training to understand Scientists don’t know or cannot agree: e.g. BSE/vCJD, global warming, low-level radiation, pesticide residues, HRT, mobile phones, passive smoking, stock market …. e.g. climbing a tree, riding a bike, driving, car

4. A successful risk manager Risk management is • a balancing act • instinctive • intuitive • modified by culture

5. Rewards Propensity to take risks Balancing behaviour Perception of risks Accidents

6. more dangerous & therefore slower Risk compensation tyres - less grip less efficent brakes reduced down pressure - less grip

14. Propensity to take risks Rewards Balancing behaviour Perception of risks Accidents The risk thermostat Money, power, love, glory, food, sex, rushes of adrenaline, control ... Money, health, life, status, self-esteem, embarrassment, jail, loss of control ...

15. Risk perceived through science • “a Richter scale for risk would involve taking a series of common situations of varying risk to which people can relate” (DTI) • “a simple measure of risk to that people can use as a basis for decision making” (RSS)

17. A Richter Scale for Risk? Risk of an individual dying in any one year as a result of a road accident = 1:8000 (On the State of the Public Health 1995) = 1:16000 (Road Accidents Great Britain 1995) Personality disorder vs normal 10 X Young male vs middle-aged female 100 X 20 2.5 times over limit vs sober = 2 680 000 134 X 3am Sunday vs 10am Sunday

18. I exaggerate the four variables are not independent;there are more disturbed drunken young men on the road at 3am Sunday • or do I? the four numbers in the equation are all averages. Further variables must be invoked to account for their variances, is the carbig X new X equipped with ABS brakes X insured ...? is the roadslippery X well-lit X straight ... ? is the driversleepy X angry X on drugs X short-sighted ...? is the ... .... ?

19. Bottom loop bias Propensity to take risks Rewards Balancing behaviour Reducing Risks - Protecting People Perception of risks Accidents

20. Propensity to take risks Rewards Balancing behaviour Perception of risks Accidents Perceptual Filters

21. Fatalist Hierarchist Egalitarian Individualist

22. Perceived through science: legal grey area Titanic effect Virtual Risk: human error becomes Bad Luck: legal black hole Directly Perceptible: Victorian coal mine - imposed climbing Everest - voluntary Resources devoted to increasing safety Bad luck Safety

23. www.acm.ab.ca/safety/images/ fault-tree.gif

24. foresight the present bad luck

25. foresight bad luck hindsight the present

26. hindsight foresight the present bad luck Culpable negligence

27. per cent Whom do you trust? Fatalists Egalitatians Individualist Hierarchist

28. More anonymous, less convivial

29. Less child friendly

30. More dangerous

31. Propensity to take risks Rewards Propensity to take risks Rewards Balancing behaviour Balancing behaviour Perception of risks Accidents Perception of risks Accidents The lorry driver and the cyclist

32. Propensity to take risks Rewards Propensity to take risks Rewards Balancing behaviour Balancing behaviour Perception of risks Accidents Perception of risks Accidents Propensity to take risks Rewards Lawyer on contingency fee Insurer Balancing behaviour Perception of risks Accidents

33. 69% of Americans believe in angels. 46% have their own guardian angel.

34. New Scientist 22 January 2005