Is there a global problem with respect to meeting energy demands? If so why? If not why not?

1. Is there a global problem with respect to meeting energy demands? If so why? If not why not? If there is a problem what factors may contribute to the problems? Where do we start to answer these questions?

2. Energy and the Future Prof. D. Venkataraman (DV)Department of Chemistry University of Massachusetts Amherst Contact:dv@chem.umass.edu

3. Is There a Energy Problem? “The question of the possible exhaustion of the world’s oil supply deserves the gravest consideration. There is every indication that we are face to face with this possibility” Scientific American Editorial in 1913 Quoted in “ Current Thinking” by Heather Rogers In New York Times 2007 “Energy is the single most important challenge facing humanity today” R. E. Smalley in 2004 Testimony to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, April 27, 2004 “Ours is going to be an administration that makes decisions on science, what's realistic, common-sense decisions. For example, circumstances have changed since the campaign. We're now in an energy crisis.” President George W. Bush in 2001 Answer to Helen Thomas’s Question in a WH press conference on Mar 29, 2001

4. Is There a Energy Problem? “In fact, there is no energy crisis and there is little reason to expect there will be” Former Vice President Dick Cheney in 2001 In a speech in Toronto, reported by Forbes Magazine “A slim majority of Americans (53 percent) say the nation is in the midst of an energy crisis” Newsweek Poll, 2001 Reported in Newsweek, May 5, 2001 “Everything we think we know about ‘running out of energy’ isn’t just muddled and wrong;it’s exact opposite of truth” The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, And Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy Peter Huber and Mark Millis, Basic Books 2005

5. Global Power Demand • Global Power Consumption (2004) • 14 Terawatts (TW) • 14 x 1012 watts • Equivalent to each person leaving thirty 100W bulbs burning for a year • U.S. Energy Consumption, 3.3 TW (2001) • Equivalent to each person leaving hundred 100W bulbs burning for a year Source: United Nations, U.S Department of Energy

6. Current Sources of Energy Reconstructed using data from Prof. Nate Lewis’ Website at Caltech

7. Known Knowns • Total Global Oil Reserves: 1293 Billion Barrels of Oil (1 Barrel = 42 gal. or ~159 L) • Current Global Demand : 90 million barrels of oil/day • How long will it last at the current rate? ~40 years • Expected Demand in 2015 : 98 million barrels/day • Expected Demand in 2030: 118 million barrels/day • Global Coal Reserves: Equiv. to 4800 billion barrels of Oil • Uranium Reserves: ~85 years • Thorium Reserves: 2500 years

8. 40 Petroleum Petroleum U.S. Energy Consumption by Source From US Department of Energy 30 Hydroelectric Power Hydroelectric Power Natural Gas Natural Gas Quadrillion Btu 20 Coal Coal Nuclear Electric Power Nuclear Electric Power 10 Wood Wood 0 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Known Unknowns • Would we find large oil/natural gas deposits? Saudi Arabian Reserves = 264 billion barrels = 8 years of oil at current demand • Would increasing the efficiency through technology innovations lead to decrease in consumption of oil? • How rapidly would Africa and other under-developed nations catch up with developing and developed nations?

9. Unknown Unknowns

10. Energy Problem: Is there some truth or is it truthiness? • Total Global Oil Reserves: 1293 Billion Barrels of Oil (1 Barrel = 42 gal. or ~159 L) • Current Global Demand : 90 million barrels of oil/day • How long will it last at the current rate? ~40 years • Expected Demand in 2015 : 98 million barrels/day • Expected Demand in 2030: 118 million barrels/day • Global Coal Reserves: Equiv. to 4800 billion barrels of Oil • Uranium Reserves: ~85 years • Thorium Reserves: 2500 years

11. Nature 1998, 395, (6705), 881-884. • 10 TW power needs to be generated from non-carbon sources by 2050!

12. Energy and Environment Methane CH4 (g) + H2O (g)  CO2 (g) + 4 H2 • Projected H2 Demand in 2040 • 150 Mtons • Current Production • 10 Mtons Water- Gas Shift Reaction CO + H2O  CO2 + H2 From Coal C + H2O  CO + H2 • 1 ton of H2 = 5 tons of CO2 C + 2 H2O  CO2 + 2H2 “ We are facing a planetary emergency” Former Vice President Al Gore Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Mar 21,2007

13. Global Warming “I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with” Michael Griffin Former NASA Administrator in an interview on NPR May 30, 2007 “If polar ice caps melt, then we will have more water to make Tang” Stephen Colbert On the Cobert Report, Jun 06, 2007 Carbon-based fuels used to industrialize two nations with > 2 billion people?

14. Energy and Economics Reconstructed using data from Prof. Nate Lewis’ Website at Caltech

15. Energy and Politics Source: BBC News Marshall Ramsey, Jackson Mississippi, The Clarion Ledger,

16. Oil, Energy and Politics From Wikipedia Commons, Wiki entry on ‘Oil Reserves’

17. The E3G Problem: Energy Demand, Economics, Environment and Geopolitics Environment Economics Energy Demand • Climate Change • Nuclear Waste Containment • Affordable Energy Geopolitics • Non-uniform Distribution of Resources

18. E3G Problem: Conventional Sources Scenario 1: • Drill or ‘Explore’ more oil wells • Use Coal for Primary • Built more nuclear plants • Less dependence on foreign oil • More energy security • More greenhouse gas emissions • Generation of nuclear waste • Global nuclear proliferation Source:http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v33_2_00/research.htm Need methods to sequester carbon dioxide!

19. E3G Problem:Scenario with Alternate Energy Scenario 2: • Develop Renewable Fuels • Tap Wind Energy • Tap Solar Energy • Tap Geothermal Energy • Less dependence on foreign oil • More energy security • No greenhouse gas emissions • Environmentally Friendly • Not affordable • Low efficiencies Need Efficient Affordable Renewable Energy Sources

20. Emerging Problem: Availability of Fresh Water WE3G Problem: Water + Energy Demand + Economics + Geopolitics Source: United Nations and International Water Management Institute

21. Need of the Hour Economics Environment • A well-thought long range policy based on facts and a political will to implement the policy • Public awareness of the emerging problems • Increase in workforce on renewable energy/water problems • Increased research funding for renewable energy/water problems Energy Demand Water Geopolitics

22. E3G Problem: Renewable Energy Solutions at UMass Amherst • Solar Energy (MassCREST) Solar Insolation = ~340 W/m2 Total Land Area = 150,000,000 sq. km US Area = 9, 826,630 sq. km = 3341 TW “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” Thomas Edison In 1931 to Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone From Current Thinking by Heather Rogers in New York Times, June 3, 2007 Source: Basic Research Energy Needs for Solar Energy Utilization, US Department of Energy

23. E3G Problem: Renewable Energy Solutions at UMass Amherst 1 Joule = 1 Watt radiated in 1 sec 237 kJ = 237 kW in 1 sec If I burn 2g of H2 for 1 sec, I can burn 2370 hundred watt bulbs for 1 sec • Explore Other Fuels Like Hydrogen (MassCREST) H2(g) + ½ O2 (g)  H2O (l) + Energy Available Energy at 298K = 237.15 kJ/mol Hydrogen Production: How to break H-O-H bonds at lower temperatures? Hydrogen Storage: How to reversibly convert H- to H2? Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA