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Justin Glisan Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

RACM Project Update: ISU Atmospheric Modeling Component: Part 1. Justin Glisan Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences. Outline. Update since Santa Cruz CORDEX Production runs Era-Interim Reanalysis 1989 - 2007 Arctic CORDEX Domain Six member ensemble

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Justin Glisan Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

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  1. RACM Project Update: ISU Atmospheric Modeling Component: Part 1 Justin Glisan Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

  2. Outline • Update since Santa Cruz • CORDEX Production runs • Era-Interim Reanalysis • 1989 - 2007 • Arctic CORDEX Domain • Six member ensemble • Observational Analysis of Extremes • Spectral Nudging on the wr50a domain Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

  3. Update since Santa Cruz • Three inter-connected projects • CORDEX production runs • Observational analysis of extremes • Spectral nudging (Based on Matt Higgins work at CU) • Running RACM CCSM12 on Pingo

  4. CORDEX Production Runs CU physics Era-Interim Reanalysis NSIDC sea ice Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

  5. PAW on Arctic CORDEX • WRFV3.1.0 w/ CU Physics • Arctic CORDEX Domain • Forcing data sets: • Era-Interim Reanalysis • NSIDC Bootstrap Fractional Sea Ice • Six-member ensemble • One day stagger (01-06 January 1989) • January 1989 - December 2007 Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

  6. January 1999 July 1999

  7. January 2007 July 2007

  8. Obs. RMSD and Variability • Reanalysis RMSD provides another measure of internal variability in the atmosphere • Magnitudes of both RMSD curves correspond to a high degree, including the seasonal variability. • Thus, the model versus reanalysis RMSD: • May have a considerable dependence on unforced, quasi-random internal variability • Also simulates the annual cycle of that variability

  9. Observational Analysis of Extremes North American stations Precipitation and Temperature Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

  10. Domain of Interest • Arctic CORDEX Domain (1989 - 2007) • NCDS Global Summary of the Day • Around 150 stations • Precipitation and Temperature • Four analysis boxes • Based on the climatological record, weather patterns • Physical location within the domain

  11. Each station is considered an individual realization within each box; hence each realization has a large number of samples, adding many degrees of freedom for statistical analysis. • Observations are ordered and ranked by precipitation amount or temperature and then using the 95th percentile the extreme values are found using a suite of statistical programs. Further analysis is performed to determine extreme temporal and spatial regimes in temperature and precipitation.

  12. Spectral Nudging on wr50a Domain RACM Atmospheric Domain Four different nudging coefficients

  13. PAW Setup on wr50a • WRFV3.1.1 w/ CU physics • Full spectral nudging option • Three-member ensemble (one day stagger) • Two cases: • Winter case: January 2007 (initialized in Dec.) • Summer case: July 2007 (initialized in June) • Four nudging coefficients • Full (WRF default) • 1/2, 1/4, 1/8

  14. ISU Polar WRF Brandon Fisel Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences RACM May 2010

  15. Outline • Motivations • Model setup • Short-term behavior • Longer simulation results RACM May 2010

  16. Definitions RACM May 2010

  17. Motivations • WRF sea-ice: • fraction v. binary • Fractions • ocean-atmosphere interactions • dynamical behavior • climatological behavior RACM May 2010

  18. 2007, July Sea Ice Large area, >50% July 2007 RACM May 2010

  19. Model Setup Cordex domain 50-km res F; Fraction B; Binary B B F/B RACM May 2010

  20. Model Setup (cont…) • Ensemble • Taschetto et al. • 8 members • BC:6-hr; 12-hr sea ice • 2 treatments • fraction/binary RACM May 2010

  21. Simulations • Init. ~1.5-2 weeks • May 24, 2007 • Target – June 6, 2007 • sea-ice >50% RACM May 2010

  22. 2-week Behavior • Short-term • 2 weeks • May - June RACM May 2010

  23. 2-week Behavior (cont…) MSLP F-B F-B(1-4) F-B(5-8) RACM May 2010

  24. MSLP Avg. RACM May 2010

  25. MSLP Avg. (cont…) RACM May 2010

  26. MSLP Avg. (cont…) RACM May 2010

  27. MSLP Avg. (cont…) RACM May 2010

  28. MSLP Avg. (cont…) RACM May 2010

  29. MSLP Avg. (cont…) RACM May 2010

  30. MSLP Avg. (cont…) RACM May 2010

  31. August RACM May 2010

  32. October RACM May 2010

  33. Aug/Oct Differences RACM May 2010

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