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Macroeconomics (ECON 1211) Lecturer: Dr B. M. Nowbutsing Topic: Unemployment

Macroeconomics (ECON 1211) Lecturer: Dr B. M. Nowbutsing Topic: Unemployment. 1. Some Key Terms. Unemployment rate: the percentage of the labour force without a job but registered as being willing and available for work Labour force

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Macroeconomics (ECON 1211) Lecturer: Dr B. M. Nowbutsing Topic: Unemployment

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  1. Macroeconomics (ECON 1211)Lecturer: Dr B. M. Nowbutsing Topic: Unemployment

  2. 1. Some Key Terms • Unemployment rate: • the percentage of the labour force without a job but registered as being willing and available for work • Labour force • those people holding a job or registered as being willing and available for work • Participation rate • the percentage of the population of working age declaring themselves to be in the labour force

  3. 2. Unemployment in the UK, 1983-2003

  4. 3. Unemployment (%) in Selected Countries

  5. 4. Labour Market FlowsIt is tempting to see the labour market in static terms Working Unemployed Out of the labour force but...

  6. New hires Recalls Job-losers Lay-offs Quits Discouraged workers Retiring Temporarily leaving Re-entrants New entrants Taking a job 5. Labour Market Flows Working Unemployed Out of the labour force

  7. 6. More on Labour Market Flows • In 2003 unemployment in the Mauritius began at 54,000 • During the year: • 549,500 were in the labour force • The Unemployment rate in Mauritius in 2007 is 9.4%

  8. 7. The Composition of Unemployment • Different groups in society are more vulnerable to unemployment, varying by: • age • gender • region • ethnic origin

  9. 8. Types of Unemployment • Frictional • the irreducible minimum level of unemployment in a dynamic society • people between jobs • the ‘almost unemployable’ • Structural • unemployment arising from a mismatch of skills and job opportunities when the pattern of demand and production changes • it takes time for sugar cane workers to retrain as international bankers

  10. 8. Types of Unemployment (2) • Demand-deficient unemployment • occurs when output is below full capacity • ‘Keynesian’ unemployment occurs in the transitional period before wages and prices have fully adjusted • Classical unemployment • created when the wage is deliberately maintained above the level at which labour supply and labour demand schedules intersect

  11. 9. A ‘modern’ View of Unemployment • A similar categorization is retained, but an important distinction is to be noted between: • Voluntary unemployment • when a worker chooses not to accept a job at the going wage rate • Involuntary unemployment • when a worker would be willing to accept a job at the going wage but cannot get an offer.

  12. LF: size of labour force AJ LF AJ: the number of workers prepared to accept jobs w* F E Equilibrium is at w*, N*. N* N1 The distance EF is the natural rate of unemployment. 10. The Natural rate of Unemployment LD: labour demand Real wage AJ is to the left of LF because some members of the labour force are between jobs, others are waiting for better offers. LD Number of workers

  13. 10. The Natural Rate of Unemployment • The natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment when the labour market is in equilibrium. • This is entirely voluntary. • It includes: • frictional unemployment • structural unemployment

  14. Suppose that union power succeeds in maintaining a real wage of w2. Equilibrium is at A A B w2 C and unemployment is AC, of which BC is voluntary and AB is involuntary N2 11. Classical Unemployment AJ LF Real wage w* LD To the extent that this unemployment reflects a conscious decision by unions to restrict employment, it is voluntary unemployment. N* N1 Number of workers

  15. 12. Supply-Side economics • entails the use of microeconomic incentives to alter • the level of full employment • the level of potential output • the natural rate of unemployment • In the long run the performance of the economy can only be changed only by affecting the level of full employment and the corresponding level of potential output.

  16. With an income tax, the gross wage paid by firms (w1) is higher than the take-home net pay of workers (w3). A w1 E Equilibrium is at N1 F w2 AB is the amount of tax B w3 C Unemployment is BC Without tax, equilibrium is at E. Unemployment is now EF. N1 N2 13. Tax Cuts and Unemployment AJ LF Real wage LD Number of workers EF is less than BC because of the relative slopes of LF & AJ but the differences may not be substantial.

  17. 14. Other Supply-Side Policies • Trade union reform • reducing the power of trade unions may limit distortions in the labour market • Other labour supply policies • training and retraining measures • improving the efficiency of the labour market • such measures may affect frictional and structural unemployment • Investment • higher investment may increase the demand for labour • may be achieved via tax incentives or low interest rates

  18. 15. Hysteresis • The idea that a (short-run) fall in labour demand may lead to a permanent fall in labour supply • This could help to explain high and persistent unemployment in Europe in the 1980s

  19. 15. Hysteresis (continued) • Four channels: • Insider-outsider distinction • only those in work take part in wage bargaining & they protect their own positions • Discouraged workers • people stop looking for jobs • Search and mismatch • firms and workers get used to low search • capital stock • low levels of investment in recession lead to permanently low capital stock levels

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