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Agenda. About Karvy ComtradeTrading at NSEL Cotton: An Introduction TrendsGlobalDomesticTextile IndustryPrice Analysis
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2. Agenda About Karvy Comtrade
Trading at NSEL
Cotton: An Introduction
Trends
Global
Domestic
Textile Industry
Price Analysis & Forecasts
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16. Cotton The Recent Trends Year 2008 saw roller coaster ride in Cotton prices
The bench mark ICE (NYBOT) futures showcased higher volatility by trading in the range of 92-36 cents per pound
Domestic cotton made all time highs of Rs.29000 - 29500 per candy in third quarter and fell to 21000 in November
Economic slowdown and financial crisis resulted in consecutive quarterly fall at ICE
Lower output forecast across world failed to provide any support to prices
Domestic textile industry facing crisis over higher MSP and lower export demand
17. About cotton Accounts for 40 percent of total global fiber production
Discovered more than 4,000 years ago
Cotton fiber is a unicellular seed hair composed of basically 92-95% of pure cellulose
An important fiber crop and one of largest globally traded commodity
Mostly harvested in second half of the calendar year
Cotton products: Fiber and seed
Fiber : Textiles
Seed: Oil extraction (Edible oil) and Cake (cattle feed)
Classification based on fiber length
Emergence of Bt cotton
18. Cotton-Global trends World Area and Production averaged at 33 million hectares and 23 million tonnes in this decade
Highest output was in 2006-07 at 26.56 million tonnes
China is largest producer (32%) and importer (30%)
US is third largest producer (12%) and largest exporter (35%)
India has overtaken US in terms of production in 2007-08 to become second largest producer (22%)
Production is in declining trend in US and rising in developing countries
19. World Area and Production
20. Major Cotton producers
21. World cotton scenario
23. India Cotton Area and Production
24. India cotton scenario
25. Growth in Cotton
26. Region-wise cotton output (2008-09*)
27. A Brief on Indian Textile Industry Contributes to 4 % of GDP and 14 % of industrial production and 16 % of total exports earnings
Cotton constitutes 60% of textile consumption
Employment to over 15 million people
End of Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) in 2005-
India's share of exports to the world expected to increase from the current 4 per cent to around 7 per cent by 2012
High input cost and low returns due to higher raw cotton prices and weak export sales
28. Domestic cotton price seasonality
29. Yearly average prices and % change
30. Price Correlation Matrix
31. Minimum Support Price (MSP) Increased by 40-48 percent for 2008-09
MSP for Shankar 6 fixed at Rs 2850 per quintal compare to Rs2055
Better price to farmers at a time of higher input costs and incidents of suicides
Farmers prefer to sell to Government procurement agencies rather than ginning mills
Double blow to the mills Higher MSP and lower exports
Ginning mills are running below 50 % of their capacity
Efforts to protect the interest of mills Government intervention
32. Arrivals and procurement in current season Daily arrivals are around 1.5-2 lakh bales and it may extend till January end
As per CCI, total cotton arrivals till December 13th were 85.88 lakh bales compared to 106.6 lakh bales for the same period of last year
CCI has procured about 30 lakh bales and targeted to procure 100 lakh bales in this season
Likely to face storage problems with huge quantity of purchase and may go slow
According to media quote, CCI may suffer loss of Rs2065 crores for procurement
33. Cotton forecasts for 2008-09 ICAC as on 1st December Global production expected to decrease by six per cent to 24.6 Million tonnes
Global trade is likely to fall by 12 per cent to 7.3 million tonnes
World imports are likely to fall by seven per cent to 5.4 Million tonnes
Chinese imports are likely to fall by 24 per cent to 1.9 Million tonnes
Global mill use is expected to fall by 6% to 24.9 Million tonnes
34. USDA forecasts as on 11th December
35. Price outlook for Indian Cotton Current market price: Rs 21500-21600 per candy
Short term(1-2 months) Weak
- Rs18500 -19000 per candy
Long term (6-8 months) Strong
- Rs26000 per candy
36. Short term Outlook - Bearish Weak demand from ginning mills and textile sector
Low export demand and less parity with global price
Higher arrivals in domestic markets around 2 lakh bales per day for another one month
Falling global cotton prices
37. long term Outlook - Bullish Higher MSP 40-48% rise
Anticipation of revival of the global economy measures taken by Governments
Global shortage of cotton
World output to decline by 7.47%
US output to decline by 29.19%
India can fulfill the global shortage
Weakening Rupee
Declining arrivals from February onwards