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Master Narratives & Global Climate Change

Master Narratives & Global Climate Change. IPCC. Charlie Vars Dave Bella Court Smith. January 29, 2013. Why so much debate?. IPCC Working Groups. (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change

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Master Narratives & Global Climate Change

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  1. Master Narratives &Global Climate Change IPCC Charlie Vars Dave Bella Court Smith January 29, 2013

  2. Why so much debate?

  3. IPCC Working Groups • (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change • (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change • (WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change and for activities that remove greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere

  4. 2007 The Working Group Reports and Synthesis Report 2013/2014.

  5. WG I - IPCC Science Outline Chapter 1: Introduction 2-4: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, Ocean, Cryosphere (Ice) 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 7: Clouds and Aerosols 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing 9: Evaluation of Climate Models 10: Detection and Attribution : Global to Regional 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections and Irreversibility 13: Sea Level Change 14: Climate Phenomena and Future Regional Climate Change

  6. SK-II IPCC WG III Policy & Action Options IPCC WG II Impact Socioeconomic IPCC WG I Science

  7. WG II - IPCC ImpactAssessment Themes • Observed impacts, with detection and attribution • Projected integrated climate change impacts, regional variation by scenario and time slice • Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks, key drivers (including extremes) • Alternative development pathways, multiple interacting stresses, uncertainty, valuation of impacts and adaptation • Adaptation and managing risks, practical experiences, lessons learned, barriers, observed and expected limits to adaptation, avoiding maladaptation, planned and autonomous adaptation, potential and residual impacts, thresholds and irreversible changes

  8. WG III - IPCC Policy Outline I. INTRODUCTION· Historical, current and future trends II. FRAMING ISSUES 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response – policies, uncertainty and risk 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. Sustainable III. PATHWAYS FOR MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation - Co-benefits, tradeoffs, geoengineering 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways – macroeconomy, technology portfolios 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning IV. ASSESSMENT OF POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND FINANCE

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