Exit Polling in Mississippi Republican Senate Primary

1. Exit Polling in Mississippi Republican Senate Primary Norman Analytics and Research June 30, 2014

2. Key Findings • McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast. • Voters under 35, those without a college degree and those making $25,000-$99,999 were more likely to vote for McDaniel. • In the regions tested, 20% of June 24th voters did not participate in the June 3rd primary. McDaniel won 56% of these voters – on par with his overall vote total in the regions surveyed. • In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other ads seen and heard during the campaign. • Despite what they say about impact, voters who heard the message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare (through any channel) were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel. • Among those who heard the NON PAC Ad and said it had an impact, 75% voted for McDaniel. • The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.

3. Election Results Results are weighted to match the final tally in each county. McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast.

4. Election Results Younger voters strongly favored McDaniel.

5. Election Results Voters with less than a college degree were more likely to favor McDaniel.

6. Election Results McDaniel had strong support from his Tea Party base as well as middle and upper-middle class voters. The wealthiest voters were more likely to favor Cochran.

7. Voting in June 3 Election One-in-five voters in Suburban Memphis and the Gulf Coast did not participate in the original primary.

8. Election Results There was limited voter switchover between primaries. Voters who did not participate in the June 3rd primary voted similarly to the total number of voters in the regions.

9. Election Results – Changes from June 3 to June 24 Most voters cast the same ballot they did on June 3.

10. Profile of June 3 Non-Voters McDaniel won new voters who support the Tea Party and those without college degrees while Cochran courted higher income, higher educated voters as well as those who oppose the Tea Party.

11. Profile of June 3 Non-Voters In the regions surveyed, June 3rd non-voters were more likely to be supportive of the Tea Party and McDaniel won this group easily. New voters who supported the Tea Party were more likely to have heard the NON PAC Ad showing the ad was well targeted to McDaniel’s base.

12. Radio Advertising In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other advertising mediums.

13. Profile of Voters – Radio Ad While 57% of voters in the tested regions voted for McDaniel, 63% of those who heard the NON PAC Ad voted for him and 75% of those who heard the ad and said it had impact supported McDaniel. Of those who heard the NON PAC Ad, 59% support the Tea Party compared to 47% among all voters. This indicates the ad was well targeted to turn out a segment of voters likely to support McDaniel. • Significantly higher than the total sample •  Significantly lower than the total sample

14. Obamacare Exemption Impact Voters who heard the message about Cochran and the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel. • Significantly higher than the total sample •  Significantly lower than the total sample

15. Obamacare Exemption The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.

16. Obamacare Exemption Voters are split on whether or not Congress and their staff should get employer based healthcare. However, other survey data show this changes if Congress appears to have a separate set of rules.

17. Appendix

18. Methodology • In-person interviewers were positioned at 18 polling places in Mississippi on June 24, 2014 for the Republican Senate Nomination Runoff Election. • In total 1,127 interviews were conducted. • 9 in Suburban Memphis (576 interviews) • 9 on the Southern Gulf Coast (551 interviews) • Polling places were selected through a random stratified sample based on turnout in the June 3rd Republican Primary. Polling places where fewer than 100 people voted on June 3rd were excluded for operational/feasibility issues. • Interviewers approached every third person that left the precinct and invited them to participate in a survey. This was done to ensure a random sample. • If voters agreed to participate, they were handed a double sided survey which was self-administered and returned to a box. The interviewer did not review the completed surveys to ensure anonymity. • Final survey data were weighted to match the actual election outcome in each county. Figures in this report reflect weighted data. When data from the state becomes available, this can be updated to match precinct level actual returns.

19. Locations – Suburban Memphis *To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results **Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization ***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for part of the day

20. Locations – Southern Gulf Coast *To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results **Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization ***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for most of the day

21. Demographics of Voters