Class 11. Deforestation

1. Class 11. Deforestation March 14, 2013

2. What is deforestation? • Deforestation is the direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forested land. • From UNFCC • Does not include harvesting and/or natural disturbance where forests will regenerate back • Degradation also a concern…

3. Current state • According to FAO’s 2005 Global Forest Resource Assessment, deforestation - mainly conversion of forests to agricultural land - continued at an alarmingly high rate at the global level during the period 1990–2005, about 13 million hectares per year, with few signs of a significant decrease over time. • The highest deforestation currently occurs in tropical America (4.5 million hectares per year) and Africa (3.1 million hectares per year), whilst tropical Asia has about 2.9 million ha per year. • http://www.illegal-logging.info/uploads/KeyFindingsen.pdf

4. Changes in forest cover 2000-2005 • Deforestation rate is slowing down, but still a very important issue. • Changes in forest cover 2000-2005: Source: IPCC, 2007

5. Consequences of Deforestation • Contribution to climate change • Impact on Biodiversity • Other environmental goods and services • Reduced socio-economic opportunities for indigenous and local communities

6. Deforestation • Deforestation, forest degradation and other changes in forests contribute 17% of all GHG emissions (UN-REDD, 2010)

7. Drivers of change in ecosystem services(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2006)

8. Drivers of tropical deforestation • tropical deforestation, in particular, is not a forestry problem but one of land use, as most causes originate outside the forestry sector. • It results from a combination of factors • Geist and Lambin 2001 examine 152 case studies of deforestation • They examined proximate causes and underlying drivers • Ag expansion in 146 out of 152 • Infrastructure 110/152 • Wood extraction 102/152 • Economics, followed by policy/institutional, followed by technology

9. Examples • In South America policies promoting colonization, settlement and agriculture • These activities provide the highest return, promoting land conversion • Brazil and the Amazon • Cattle • Soybeans

10. Central Africa • In Africa, timber still provides significant source of revenues • Weak controls lead to over-logging and illegal logging • Migrants follow logging roads and land use may change

11. Asia • States in Southeast Asia pursued sequence of large forest development projects • Originally based on timber extraction • Asia Pulp and Paper mill in Indonesia • Subsequent establishment of plantations (palm oil) • http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0425-oil_palm.html

12. Palm Oil and Deforestation • Between 1967 and 2000 the area under cultivation in Indonesia expanded from less than 2,000 square kilometres (770 square miles) to more than 30,000 square kilometres. Deforestation in Indonesia for palm oil and illegal logging is so rapid that a report in 2007 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said most of the country’s forest might be destroyed by 2022. Although the rate of forest loss has declined in Indonesia in the past decade, UNEP says the spread of palm-oil plantations is one of the greatest threats to forests in Indonesia and Malaysia. http://www.economist.com/node/16423833

13. Environmental Impacts • In Sumatra and Borneo, palm-oil expansion threatens elephants, tigers and rhinos, as well as orang-utans. Enormous amounts of carbon dioxide are released as forests and peatlands are destroyed. Deforestation makes Indonesia one of the world’s largest carbon-dioxide emitters. • On the bright side, it is true that palm oil has contributed to economic growth in the countries that produce it. But even that has been tarnished in some cases by social conflict, for example when locals or indigenous groups have been turfed off their land to make room for plantations.

14. Economics of Palm Oil • the average price in 2010 has been around $800 a tonne, says Siegfried Falk of Oil World, a firm of analysts. Oil World forecasts that global production will reach a record 46.9m tonnes this year, up from 45.3m in 2009, with most of the increase coming from Indonesia. • The oil palm is an efficient crop, yielding up to ten times more oil per hectare than soyabeans, rapeseed or sunflowers. On 5% of the world’s vegetable-oil farmland it produces 38% of output, more than any of these other crops. Any substitute would need more land. Its bounty makes it relatively cheap.

15. Economics of Palm Oil The growing worldwide interest in biofuels as an alternative for fossil fuels will likely increase demand for feedstock, such as oil palm, and lead to the expansion of plantations, though the recent proposal of the European Commission to restrict food-based biofuels to 5% of renewable energy might slow that growth. To understand the economics of palm oil production, which has been portrayed as environmentally and socially costly, we studied 23 oil palm plantations in Indonesia. We found that potential profitability of the plantations varied between approximately USD 4500 and USD 30 500* per hectare over a 25-year lifecycle. Clearly, such plantations would be attractive to investors. The returns to labour, that is, to the workers, of the 23 plantations varied between approximately USD 6.20 and USD 27 per person per day, which equated to two-to-seven times greater, respectively, than the average agricultural daily wage. Hence, labouring in an oil palm plantation was economically more attractive than other forms of agricultural day labour. Even in cases where a plantation was established in a sparsely populated area and paid higher wages, the plantation was still able to cover the cost of labour. Consequently, higher wages in certain regions attracted more people and drove further conversion of other land uses, such as forests and agricultural land. Indeed, several of the plantations received additional income from logging when they were being established, which varied between 7% and 9% of total income for the full 25-year lifecycle of the plantation. Source: http://blog.worldagroforestry.org/index.php/2012/10/25/the-economics-of-oil-palm-in-indonesia/ Trucks waiting to offload oil palm fruit at a mill

16. Here in BC… • Approx. 6,200ha deforested in 2007; approx. 2000ha reforested that year. • Province of BC: Zero net deforestation act: http://www.leg.bc.ca/39th2nd/1st_read/gov05-1.htm (act)http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/znd/index.htm (MoFLM) • Disturbance ≠ Deforestation • “…two-thirds of deforestation is a result of wildfires.” (Province, 05/27/2010)

17. Addressing (bad) deforestation • Payments (REDD+) • Regulating trade in tropical logs • Certifying • Restricting illegal logs • The European Union's Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan • The Lacey Act in the US

18. Improving the return to managing forests • Various efforts to improve the return to managing tropical forests • Focus not only on deforestation but also degradation • Improving timber returns • Valuing other goods and services • Providing economic opportunities for local communities-especially important where trying to protect biodiversity values

19. Long-term solution? • Decreasing deforestation with increasing wealth happens because, as economies develop, they tend to invest more in environmental quality. Moreover, less developed economies offer less employment opportunities and force people to convert forested land. Conversely, as the wealth of nations increases, high tech services draws people away from activities that clear land and, hence, usually forest cover increases (Ewers 2006). The literature refers to this process as “forest transitions”, which are long-run processes in which economic development drives a pattern of forest loss followed by forest recovery (Ewers 2006; Rudel et al. 2005)

20. Looking Ahead… From Nilsson, 2011

21. From Nilsson, 2011

22. Looking Ahead… From Bringezeu, 2011

23. Increasing Demand… From Bringezeu, 2011

24. More People From Bringezeu, 2011

25. Increasing Food Prices From Nilsson, 2011

26. But Pressure Not Just from Food… From Bringezeu, 2011

27. Complex, Interlocking System… From Bringezeu, 2011