New Training Course on Use of NWP in Forecast Operations

1. New Training Course on Use of NWP in Forecast Operations William R. Bua Stephen D. Jascourt* UCAR/COMET *presenter

2. Outline Existing COMET NWP Training NWP Training Needs for Forecasters Course Design Course Content Overview Conclusion

3. Existing COMET NWP Training Oriented toward operational forecaster Free, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu

4. Existing COMET NWP Training Oriented toward operational forecaster Free, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu

5. Existing COMET NWP Training Oriented toward operational forecaster Free, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu Course on fundamentals of NWP (1999-2000) Reference matrix on current models parameterizations, terrain, layers, assimilated data, … ensemble configurations Modules (NAM-WRF, ensemble basics, RTMA, etc.) Mini-cases (mostly old) VISITview Teletraining archives Focus mostly model concepts and specific models Need more on use in forecast context

6. NWP Training Needs for Forecasters Survey (JP4.5) of NWS SOOs and Scientific Service Divisions Identified 4 main categories: Forecast process (pay attention to observations, analyze/think!) Core model topics (bias, diagostics, what’s in the model, etc..) Uncertainty/probabilistic (focusing heavily on use of ensembles) Local-scale forecasting (high-resolution models, downscaling, etc.) Identified priority topics: Using NWP to assess forecast uncertainty, probabilistic NWP Using NWP for mesoscale prediction Using NWP in preparing 5-km and 2.5-km forecast grids

7. Course Design Design: ~ NWS/WDTB Advanced Warning Operations Course 1-page consolidated user interface Subject Matter Experts  content and organization Individual lessons grouped into units Practical application on Weather Event Simulator (WDTB help) Quiz for credit: each lesson, certificate upon completing a unit Instructional Designers: Lessons = Lectures New Course 1) Update old course 2) Continue providing model-specific information 3) New units on use of NWP in forecast process

8. 2009 Unit 1: Orientation brief Unit 2: NWP Basics includes updated, trimmed old course 2009 Course Content Overview Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process 2009 Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) 2010 Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation 2010 Unit 6: Emerging future topics 2011+

9. 2009 2011+ Unit 1: Orientation brief 2009 2011+ Unit 2: NWP Basics includes updated, trimmed old course Course Content Overview 2009 2011+ Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) 2010 Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation 2010 Unit 6: Emerging future topics 2011+ And update

10. Unit 1: Orientation Unit 2: NWP Basics Course Content Overview • Model system (generic fundamentals): • Dynamics, terrain, precipitation, radiation, PBL, etc. • Postprocessing • Assimilation • Ensembles • Model matrix – reference look-up information • New Emerging tools: • North American Ensemble Forecast System • High-resolution (convection-allowing) models • Bias correction • Downscaling Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation Unit 6: Emerging future topics

11. Unit 1: Orientation Unit 2: NWP Basics Course Content Overview Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process • Steps in Forecast Process • Preparing to evaluate NWP models and forecast + WES case • Analysis and model initialization + WES case • Determining plausible forecast outcomes + WES case • Optimizing use of model data products + WES case • Understanding the role and use of deterministic vs. probabilistic • NWP information + WES case • Recognizing where and when human can add value to NWP + WES • Synthesis in WES case Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation Unit 6: Emerging future topics

12. Unit 1: Orientation Unit 2: NWP Basics Course Content Overview Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation Unit 6: Emerging future topics

13. Unit 1: Orientation Unit 2: NWP Basics Course Content Overview • NWS gridded forecast production – possible topics: • Starting points • Evaluating model data in the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) • Downscaling techniques in GFE • Forecast funnel in the NWS forecast environment • Small spatial scales at long time ranges Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation Unit 6: Emerging future topics

14. Unit 1: Orientation Unit 2: NWP Basics Course Content Overview Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) • Possible topics depending on needs, technology in forecast office: • When data flow changes from push to pull: which data to select? • Quick assessment of model data: wading through data spigot • 3-d visualization of model data • Interpreting environmental forecasts, not just weather Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation Unit 6: Emerging future topics

15. Content Trimming Principle Could it affect a forecaster’s decision? Unit 1: Orientation Unit 2: NWP Basics Course Content Overview Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …) Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation Unit 6: Emerging future topics

16. New COMET distance-learning NWP Course: • Collaborative effort with SOOs and other NWS experts • Update + shorten course on NWP basics/fundamentals • Continue updating information on current models • Focus new content on context in forecast process • Interactive, not lectures • Limit content to what forecaster will actually use Conclusion