Our Changing Population: Food Scarcity & Hunger

1. Our Changing Population:Food Scarcity & Hunger A Course Presented for the Osher Program San Diego State University April 2-May 7, 2012 Denny Braun, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus of Sociology Minnesota State University

2. First—The Good News World food production had an incredible growth spurt in 1950-1971 Grain production DOUBLED during this period By the late 1960s new varieties of hybrid, high yield wheat and rice were introduced around the world by Norman Borlaug (Univ. of Minnesota) He was the father of the Green Revolution during the 1970s and 1980s, which in turn served to greatly reduce hunger in the world Many poor nations such as India, Pakistan, and China—which had been plagued by repeated famines—became self-sufficient in their own food production.

4. Hidden Costs to the Green Revolution Farming is done by intensive, continuous row cropping, without crop rotation—this leads to heavy topsoil erosion and depletion Chemical fertilizer is a necessity, yet the high yields from its heavy use are pretty much exhausted—there is a point where “more” simply fails, and yields level off. Most fertilizers are made from oil, further aggravating oil dependency Genes are spliced from large varieties of seeds to get the miracle hybrids. BUT—plant species are being destroyed at an alarming level because of rain forest destruction (60,000 will disappear in half a century). We now have an over-reliance on just a few crops. Of 3000 plant foods, wheat, corn, rice, and potatoes are world staples. A blight (such as Ireland in 1845) could destroy our food supply in one growing season.

5. Hidden Costs to the Green Revolution The Green Revolution missed the people who needed it the most—poor, subsistence farmers who don’t have the money to buy the food. Rather, these farmers were forced off their land by agribusinesses such as Dole and Cargill, despotic governments, wealthy locals, etc. Heavy irrigation is also needed for these new hybrid plants, necessitating large investments in expensive infrastructure such as dams, or over-pumping. Over-pumping to irrigate cropland has also led to declining and failing aquifers, producing aridity and desertification in many areas. Developing better plants grown in Africa by poor people (such as Cassava, sorghum, millet, yams, & cowpeas) have been largely ignored in the West.

6. Growth in Crop Yields Slowing • From 1950-1990, average grain yields rose 2.2% per year; but from 1990-2010, they rose just 1.2% annually • Wheat yields are leveling off in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Egypt, all important producers • Japan’s rice yields, close to 5 tons per hectare, have been flat for over a decade; those in China may also plateau as they approach the Japanese level Raising grain yields is becoming more difficult as the backlog of unused agricultural technology shrinks. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / NikoVujevic

7. Hunger Rising World hunger and malnutrition were on the decline for much of the late 20th century. But after falling to 788 million in the mid-1990s, the number of hungry people began to rise, reaching 915 million in 2008. In 2009 it jumped to over 1 billion. Crop failures caused by extreme weather events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave will make it harder to feed people around the world. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Claudiad

8. Other Causes for Unease • About all of the available land that can be used to grow food is now being used—it is getting much more difficult to expand arable land, a finite supply. • Due to high population growth, per capita food production has not increased since 1960 (next graph). • While yields per hectare are much higher, there is no guarantee that this can continue—especially when more fertilizer no longer works. • Nations with huge populations (read China) have now started importing food with a vengeance, causing scarcity elsewhere. • “Waste” of grain is rampant as richer Asian countries now want Western diets heavy in meat and dairy products. 3/4th ‘s of all U.S. grain is fed to livestock, but less than 2% goes to cattle within India. • We all need less red meat to be healthy. By just eating chicken, for example, more grain would be available at cheaper prices to feed the poor and hungry elsewhere in the world.

10. A quick take on Food Scarcity • Select here for an introduction to World Hunger problems, explained by an associate of Food First OR—Go To: • http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WPOMM87Jvo0#!

11. Other Causes for Unease • In 2011 the world’s farmers produced more grain than ever—a record harvest of the 3 main staples: corn, wheat, and rice. • Yet production has fallen short of consumption in 7 of 12 past years! • Reserve stocks are now at 75 days (average in 1984-2001 = 100) • Our current reserve is at a bare minimum for basic food security • In 2006, the reserve bottomed at 62 days, leading to a tripling of world prices and a shortage crisis in 2007-2008 • Protests erupted in 35 countries as the number of hungry people climbed to its current record of 1 billion. • Due to climate disasters (Russia) and diversion of corn to ethanol in the U.S., a second food crisis is now erupting as we contemplate this slide.

14. The Current Food Crisis The latest trends indicate another emerging food crisis that is projected to last for at least a decade. For a brief TV story, go to: http://www.iatp.org/blog/201201/resolving-the-food-crisis-global-leaders-fail-to-make-crucial-reforms

15. Food vs. Fuel Corn Used for Fuel Ethanol in the United States, 1980-2010 • Rising price of oil has made it profitable to turn grain into fuel • More than one fourth of the U.S. grain crop is now going to ethanol • U.S. ethanol euphoria helped double annual growth in global grain demand, raising food prices worldwide The grain needed to fill an SUV’s 25-gallon tank with ethanol once could feed one person for an entire year.

16. 2010 Russian Heat Wave Situation • Average Moscow July temperature: 14°F above norm • Number of fires starting every day in early August: 300-400 • Forest damage and restoration cost estimate: $300 billion • Total death count from heat wave and air pollution: >56,000 • Drop in the Russian grain harvest: down 40% to 60 million tons from recent annual harvests of 100 million tons Fallout • In 2009, the Black Sea region contributed roughly ¼ of world wheat exports, but Russia has banned grain exports entirely through mid-2011 • Heat and drought decimated grass and hay growth, prompting the government to release 3 million tons of grain to supplement cattle feed; still, farmers have had to cull herds • World wheat prices increase 60% over 2 months The Russian heat wave is a powerful example of how a single event can quickly destabilize the global food economy. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Brasil2

17. Nightmare Scenario A 40% drop in Russian grain harvest reduced world grain stocks from 79 days of consumption to 72 days But what if the heat wave were centered on Chicago and the much larger U.S. grain harvest dropped 40%? World grain stocks would plummet to record-low 52 days – well below the level that preceded the tripling of grain prices in 2007-08 This would likely result in unprecedented food price inflation and food riots in scores of countries, toppling weaker governments

18. Climate Change • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects earth’s average temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4°C (2.0 - 11.5°F) during this century • Current trajectory is already outpacing projections • As temperatures rise, glaciers and ice sheets melt, causing sea level to rise • Extreme weather events, such as crop-withering heat waves, droughts, and powerful storms become more frequent and more intense • For every 1°C rise in temperature above the optimum during the growing season, yields of wheat, rice, and corn drop 10 percent.

22. Another Famine Looms in Sahel Area of Africa

23. Aid is Only Half of What is Needed Last year it was Somalia, this year a looming famine in the Sahel area of Sub-Saharan Africa is occurring without adequate aid from humanitarian agencies. UNICEF is projecting 1 million cases of severe malnutrition where 25% to 60% will die Over 10 million living in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Nigeria, Senegal, and Cameroon are at extreme risk—390,000 severe malnourished in Niger alone. The immediate cause is a severe drought, induced by failing rains (climate change)—but layered upon this is over-grazing and extreme poverty. Oxfam and Save the Children are saying only half the relief that is needed is coming, and then much too slowly.

24. UNICEF Film Clip: Fighting Malnutrition For a two minute UNICEF film on hunger, go to: http://www.unicefusa.org/work/nutrition/?gclid=CM3pgoT8iq4CFQNmhwodky7E2g

25. Policies for the 3rd World:Stabilizing Population, Eradicating Poverty Universal primary education Eradication of adult illiteracy School lunch programs Aid to women, infants, and preschool children Reproductive health care and family planning services Universal basic health care Total Additional Annual Cost = $75 billion Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / wweagle

27. Poverty translates into Hunger About 15% of U.S. Households experienced “food insecurity” in 2010—which translates to over 17 million American families. These households were stalked by hunger and at times did not have enough money to buy enough food at various times during the year. Nearly 7 million households (with one million children) had such severe financial problems that they were forced to miss meals on a regular basis. Source: USDA, Economic Research Report No. (ERR-108), Nov. 2010

28. Poverty translates into Hunger (Cont.) The number of households with hunger is at an all-time high since data began to be gathered in 1995. The number of households experiencing hunger has tripled in the 3 years between 2006 and 2009. About 1-in 7 Americans (46 million) were in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Food Stamps) at the beginning of 2012 (BUT—three in ten people eligible for SNAP never get help) 80% of households that receive SNAP assistance have someone who is either over 60 or under 18 years old Source: USDA, Economic Research Report No. (ERR-108), Nov. 2010 & US Census Bureau

29. Hunger Attacks American Kids The fact that kids in America are suffering from hunger is a “hidden story” in our country. Why isn’t the U.S. media all over this grim story? It took the BBC of England to vividly portray the suffering these children must go through, as they interviewed students in Las Vegas. Click the following link for the 3 minute video: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/go/rss/int/news/-/panorama/hi/front_page/newsid_9695000/9695217.stm

30. Percent with Food Hardship Among The 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas and U.S. States: 2010

32. “Eat Your Food—Think of Those Poor, Starving Chinese Kids” Remember when we were kids, and mom used to scold us to finish our meal and eat all our food. What did she say? “Eat Your Food—Think of Those Poor, Starving Kids in China” Quite literally, the shoe is now on the other foot. Gallup surveys show Chinese struggle less than Americans to put food on the table Six percent of Chinese in 2011 say there have been times in the past 12 months when they did not have enough money to buy food that they or their family needed—compared to 19% of Americans. Our rate of food insecurity more than doubled from 9% in 2008, highlighting the viciousness of the current Great Recession

35. Hunger is a Silent Killer producing Serious Consequences Lethargy and weakness at any age Reduction in ability to fight off diseases; slower recuperation from illness Anemia for pregnant women, possibly leading to toxemia and death A greater probability of premature delivery of infants (the U.S. has the highest percent of low birth weight babies among ALL industrial countries) Once born, low birth weight babies are 30 times more likely to die before 1 Even if these infants survive, during their childhood they will encounter twice as many physical/emotional handicaps, 70% more school problems, and 1/4th more major neurological problems No one should go hungry in America—see next 3 slides for advocacy groups you may want to hook up with

36. Anti-Hunger Advocacy Groups Food First at http://www.foodfirst.org/ works to eliminate the injustices that cause hunger (est. by Francis Moore Lappe)* Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy at http://iatp.org/ works locally and globally for policy to ensure sustainable food, farm and trade systems. , Save the Children at http://www.savethechildren.org/ saves lives with food and medical care when famine and disaster strike around the world Oxfam at http://www.oxfam.org/ is an international confederation of 15 groups working in 90 countries to find solutions to poverty and hunger Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN at http://www.fao.org/ works to achieve food security for all people around the world

37. Anti-Hunger Advocacy Groups Bread for the World at http://www.bread.org/ is a faith-based initiative to lobby and pressure Congress for better, more comprehensive legislation to combat hunger in the U.S.* Hunger Notes at http://www.worldhunger.org/ is an incredible repository of information and connections to combat hunger in the U.S. and all over the world. Food Research and Action Center at http://frac.org/ is a leading nonprofit working for public policies to eradicate hunger in the U.S. Feeding America at http://feedingamerica.org/ works to feed America's hungry via a nationwide network of member food banks and to engage our country in the fight to end hunger. (You can choose your own locale)

38. Anti-Hunger Advocacy Groups Working in over 150 countries, UNICEF at http://www.unicefusa.org/ is a global humanitarian relief organization providing children with nutrition and food security. Although a UN group, you can target U.S. aid only. Keep track of energy, climate, food, and all of the other “usual suspects” at World Watch Institute (http://worldwatch.org/). This is a wonderful source for current data and information leading to a sustainable world. My personal favorite is Heifer at http://www.heifer.org/. Tired of the struggle to gift someone who has everything? Give a cow, chicken, goat, honey bees, etc. in their name—to be donated to a village in a poor, remote part of the world or in the USA—any locale that struggles with hunger.

39. Local Churches Band Together to Feed the Hungry A recent case in San Diego illustrates how we can all make a difference, no matter how small we think the effort is. 2 local churches in Lemon Grove, each with only 50 members, banded together to provide free food distribution on Fridays to those in need. The church donated $10,000 yearly (mostly for trucks), but got help from the San Diego Food Bank and Feeding America, other federal assistance programs, and local supermarkets which sold them food at huge discounts. Their volunteers distribute 5,000-15,000 pounds of free food twice monthly and have served 70,000 people already this year. The need is desperate—people line up at 1 AM for the 9 AM distribution!

40. The Limits to Growth It is not just a matter of unsustainable over-population. Over-consumption and expecting continued economic growth is also a major part of the problem. For a persuasive warning about what many foresee as an upcoming collapse of world civilization as we know it, check out this talk on TED: http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_gilding_the_earth_is_full.html?utm_source=newsletter_weekly_2012-03-02&utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly&utm_medium=email