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Pandemic Flu Awareness Briefing (Excerpted from HHS Briefing Materials)

Pandemic Flu Awareness Briefing (Excerpted from HHS Briefing Materials). May 1 st , 2009. The Burden of Influenza. Seasonal Influenza Globally: 250,000 to 500,000 deaths each year In the United States each year: 36,000 deaths >200,000 hospitalizations

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Pandemic Flu Awareness Briefing (Excerpted from HHS Briefing Materials)

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  1. Pandemic Flu Awareness Briefing(Excerpted from HHS Briefing Materials) May 1st, 2009

  2. The Burden of Influenza Seasonal Influenza • Globally: 250,000 to 500,000 deaths each year • In the United States each year: • 36,000 deaths • >200,000 hospitalizations • $37.5 billion in economic costs from influenza and pneumonia Pandemic Influenza • An ever-present threat

  3. Seasonal, Avian and Pandemic influenza • Seasonal flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses • Caused by viral subtypes that already circulate among people • Avian or swine flu is caused by avian or swine influenza viruses and occurs naturally among birds and pigs • Pandemic flu is a serious respiratory illness that spreads easily among people during a global outbreak or pandemic • Pandemics are caused by • New viral subtypes • Subtypes that have never circulated among people • Subtypes that have not circulated among people for a long time.

  4. Mechanisms of Antigenic Shift Direct Infection Reassortment in humans Non-human virus Human virus Mutation Indirect Infection Reassorted virus

  5. National Pandemic Planning Assumptions(absent an effective response) • Planning Assumptions • Incubation period 1 - 4 days • May be infectious 1 - 2 days BEFORE symptoms • On average, each person will transmit influenza to two others • 3-6 months for vaccine development (www.pandemicflu.gov) • Community impacts • Outbreaks 6 – 12 week duration with multiple waves • Healthcare system overwhelmed, other services threatened • Worker absenteeism up to 40% from illness, caring for children or ill family members, and fear of infection

  6. Pandemic Influenza Planning Assumptions: Health Care • 30% clinical attack rate (40% children, 20% young adults, 10-15% older adults) • 50% of ill persons will seek medical care • Hospitalization and deaths will depend on the virulence of the virus Extrapolation does not include potential impacts of interventions Source: Meltzer, CDC, unpublished data

  7. Goals of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions • Delay and flatten outbreak peak • Reduce peak burden on healthcare infrastructure • Reduce number of cases • Buy time #1 No intervention #2 Daily Cases With interventions #3 Days since First Case

  8. Inter-Pandemic Period Pandemic Alert Period Pandemic Period WHO Phase 1 2 3 4 5 6 New Domestic Animal Outbreak in At-Risk Country Suspected Human Outbreak Overseas Confirmed Human Outbreak Overseas Widespread Outbreaks Overseas First Human Case in N.A. Spread Throughout United States Recovery USG Stage 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Intervals, Triggers, and Actions • The virus is changing and we are evaluating: • Novelty • Efficiency • Sustainability • We are responding with targeted measures to stop transmission • The virus has changed and we are evaluating: • Severity of infection • Rapidity of spread • Vulnerability of different hosts • Geographic location • We are responding with different measures at different times and places

  9. Inter-Pandemic Period Pandemic Alert Period Pandemic Period WHO Phase 1 2 3 4 5 6 New Domestic Animal Outbreak in At-Risk Country Suspected Human Outbreak Overseas Confirmed Human Outbreak Overseas Widespread Outbreaks Overseas First Human Case in N.A. Spread Throughout United States Recovery USG Stage 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Intervals, Triggers, and Actions Los Angeles Toledo CDC Interval Investigation Recognition Initiation Accel Peak Decel Resolution • Recognize that each city or town may be at a different point along the infection transmission wave.

  10. Pandemic Severity Index

  11. Summary of Community Mitigation Strategies by Severity

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