1 / 53

ECONOMIC BRIEFING

ECONOMIC BRIEFING. UNIONBANK. November 8, 2006. Economic Profile / Basic Trends. I. ECONOMY. A small, moderately growing economy. YEARLY GROWTH. ECONOMIC PROFILE As of end 2005. GNP : PhP5.8 trillion or USD105 billion GDP : PhP5.4 trillion or USD98 billion

koto
Download Presentation

ECONOMIC BRIEFING

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ECONOMIC BRIEFING UNIONBANK November 8, 2006

  2. Economic Profile / Basic Trends

  3. I. ECONOMY A small, moderately growing economy YEARLY GROWTH ECONOMIC PROFILE As of end 2005 GNP: PhP5.8 trillion or USD105 billion GDP: PhP5.4 trillion or USD98 billion Population: 85.3 million GDP Per Capita: PhP63,463 or USD1,196 Annual Per Capita Poverty Threshold: PhP12,267 Poverty Line: 24.7% STRUCTURE OF OUTPUT 2005 QUARTERLY GROWTH Source of base data: National Economic & Development Authority

  4. I. ECONOMY More than half of the country’s GDP comes from 3 regions Source of base data: NEDA

  5. I. ECONOMY MIMAROPA, fastest growing Source of base data: NEDA

  6. I. ECONOMY Source of base data: NEDA

  7. I. ECONOMY GROSS REGIONAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT NCR, REGION IV and PHILIPPINES (REMAINDER) AVERAGE 1990 – 2005 at Current Prices In billion pesos Source of base data: 2005 Philippine Statistical Yearbook

  8. I. ECONOMY 1996 2000 Consumption pattern remains almost the same PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY PURPOSE 2005 Source of base data: NSCB

  9. I. ECONOMY Population growth projected to slow further Source of base data: 2005 Philippine Statistical Yearbook

  10. Fiscal and External Sectors

  11. I. ECONOMY Fiscal deficit narrows In billion pesos Sources of base data: NEDA & Bureau of the Treasury

  12. I. ECONOMY Fiscal dynamics improve Sources of data: Department of Finance, BIR, BSP

  13. I. ECONOMY Comfortable BoP In million USD Source of data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

  14. III. WEAK LINKS Exports seen to slow in 2007 +16.2% BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS Source of base data: National Statistical & Coordination Board

  15. III. WEAK LINKS + 9.6% Imports expected to slow as well BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS Source of base data: National Statistical & Coordination Board

  16. III. WEAK LINKS Rising import bill Declining on average by 3.5 million barrels per year OIL IMPORT VOLUME, in million barrels +33% OIL IMPORT BILL, in million barrels +38% Source of base data: Department of Energy

  17. Increasing supply of alternative fuels ENERGY SUPPLY MIX 2000 2005 Source : Department of Energy

  18. Low foreign direct investments NET FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS In Million USD Source of base data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

  19. Lower portfolio inflows NET FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS In Million USD Source of base data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

  20. I. ECONOMY Forex reserves hit all-time high GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES In billion USD NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IMPORT COVER (x) In billion USD Source of base data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

  21. SOVEREIGN RATINGS Rating companies on wait-and-see Source of base data: Bloomberg

  22. SOVEREIGN RATINGS What could change the outlook up? MOODYS - Achievement of the 2006 budget targets for P75 billion in additional VAT revenue and of fiscal deficit to around 2.1% of GDP

  23. SOVEREIGN RATINGS MOODY’S RATINGS HK Vietnam Malaysia Czech Indonesia Poland Thailand Argentina Singapore Turkey Mexico China Philippines India Korea Ecuador Russia Brazil Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Caa1 Caa2 Caa3 Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 S&P RATINGS Russia Poland Argentina Thailand India Indonesia Singapore Korea Malaysia Brazil Turkey China Czech HK Ecuador Philippines Vietnam BB BB- B+ B B- CCC- A- AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ CCC+ CCC

  24. Bright Spots

  25. II. BRIGHT SPOTS WORKERS’ REMITTANCES AND MIGRANT TRANSFERS Filipino remittances, fourth largest in the world In million USD, (Estimates include both coursed and not coursed through the banking system) Source: Global Economic Prospects 2006: Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration, World Bank.

  26. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Rising importance of remittances OFW REMITTANCES In Billion USD +15.8% OFW REMITTANCES / GNP Source of base data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

  27. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Source: University of Asia & the Pacific

  28. I. ECONOMY Increasing rate of labor migration AVERAGE MONTHLY OFW DEPLOYMENT In Thousands Source of base data: Philippine Overseas Employment Authority

  29. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Cyber-services projected to become another major dollar earner CYBER-SERVICES REVENUES In million USD BREAKDOWN OF CYBER-SERVICES REVENUES In million USD Source of base data: www.pes.com.ph, CICT

  30. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Philippines’ cyber-services, 1/3 the size of India CYBER-SERVICES REVENUES In million USD Source of base data: www.bpoindia.org, www.pes.org.ph

  31. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Growing number of visitor arrivals VISITOR ARRIVALS In millions Source of base data: Department of Tourism

  32. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Land value, office rents on the rise since 2002 AVERAGE LAND VALUE – MAKATI CBD & ORTIGAS CENTER OFFICE RENTS – MAKATI CBD

  33. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Vacancy rates on downtrend OFFICE VACANCY RATE – MAKATI CBD RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES – MAKATI CBD

  34. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Motorcycle / tricycle sales rapidly growing NEW MOTOR VEHICLES REGISTERED BY TYPE Source of base data : Land Transportation Office

  35. II. BRIGHT SPOTS NEW MOTORCYCLE/TRICYCLE REGISTRATION BY REGION NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATION BY REGION (ALL TYPES) NCR, C. Luzon & C. Visayas, biggest buyers of vehicles Source of base data : Land Transportation Office

  36. II. BRIGHT SPOTS Huge potential in mining • As at the end 2005, a total of 24 mining projects were identified, which have attracted USD339.7 million in FDI and created over 5,000 jobs. Source of base data : NEDA

  37. Growing Sectors • Remittance • Cyber Services • Tourism / Medical Tourism • Telecommunications • Construction / Real Estate • Low-end Vehicles • Education • Wellness • Infrastructure • Power • Mining

  38. Weak Links

  39. III. WEAK LINKS Weak loan growth CUSTOMER LOAN GROWTH Economic upcycle, “Property & middle-market boom” Rapid expansion of FCDU loans; Continued trade liberalization; Several cuts in reserve requirement Period of excess capacity & deleveraging Nine years of weak loan growth Source of base data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

  40. Flat overall loan level, growing consumer finance In Billion Pesos CONSUMER LOANS / TOTAL LOANS Sources of base data: PDIC & BSP

  41. III. WEAK LINKS Declining, but still huge, non-performing assets NON-PERFORMING LOANS In Billion Pesos GROSS ROPOA In Billion Pesos Source of base data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

  42. III. WEAK LINKS Modest growth in manufacturing BREAKDOWN OF GROSS VALUE ADDED Source of base data: NEDA

  43. III. WEAK LINKS Production remains in negative territory VOLUME OF PRODUCTION INDEX 1994=100 Source of base data: National Statistical Coordination Board

  44. III. WEAK LINKS Excess capacity remains AVERAGE CAPACITY UTILIZATION Source of base data: National Statistical Coordination Board

  45. III. WEAK LINKS Declining share to GDP WATER TRANSPORT GROSS VALUE ADDED At Constant Prices, In billion pesos % SHARE TO GDP Source : NEDA

  46. III. WEAK LINKS A small and barely growing sector LAND TRANSPORT GROSS VALUE ADDED AIR TRANSPORT GROSS VALUE ADDED At Constant Prices, In billion pesos At Constant Prices, In billion pesos % SHARE TO GDP % SHARE TO GDP Source of base data : NEDA

  47. III. WEAK LINKS Ships and trains lose share to air transport SHIPS : PASSENGER TRAFFIC In millions AIR TRANSPORT : PASSENGER TRAFFIC TRAINS : PASSENGER TRAFFIC In millions In millions

  48. III. WEAK LINKS SHIPPING: CARGO THROUGHPUT In metric tons TRAINS: FREIGHT TONS LOADED AIR TRANSPORT: CARGO TONS MOVEMENT in thousands in thousands FREIGHT SERVICE WAS NOT OPERATIONAL SINCE 1998

  49. Prices

  50. IV. PRICES Crude oil price increase eases CRUDE OIL PRICE, USD per barrel Source of base data: Bloomberg … because of rising US inventories, slowing economic growth, & diminishing political tensions

More Related