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Primary School Enrollment: Economic and Government Influences

Primary School Enrollment: Economic and Government Influences. Rebecca Berman rb4838a@american.edu American University College of Arts and Science SIS-600-5: Int'l Affairs Stats & Methods – Dr. Assen Assenov. Research Question. Research hypothesis.

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Primary School Enrollment: Economic and Government Influences

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  1. Primary School Enrollment: Economic and Government Influences Rebecca Berman rb4838a@american.edu American University College of Arts and Science SIS-600-5: Int'l Affairs Stats & Methods – Dr. Assen Assenov

  2. Research Question Research hypothesis Which variables related to government and economics have the greatest impact on primary school enrollment? Children from countries with a higher level of government efficiency and a stronger economy are more likely to be enrolled in primary school.

  3. Literature Review • Brock, C., & Cammish, N. (1997). Factors affecting female participation in education in seven developing countries. • Theory: Factors relating to geographical, socio-cultural, health, economic, religious, legal, political educational and initiatives potentially affect girl’s participation in school. • Findings: Economic factors and cultural biases in favor of males were the biggest obstacles to female participation in education. Religion and legal factors were two variables used which had indirect results. • Irwin, M., Engle, P., Yarbrough, C., Klein, R., & Townsend, J. (1978) The Relationship of Prior Ability and Family Characteristics to School Attendance and School Achievement in Rural Guatemala • Theory: The family economic level, parental values regarding the importance of formal education and perceptions of a child's "schoolability" influences the decision regarding if/when to send a child to school. • Findings: Family’s economic level, parental education and the mother’s modernity were the biggest variables influencing parents schooling decisions. Parents also make decisions based on perceptions of child’s intellectual abilities

  4. Data • Unit of analysis/study: 2008, 159 countries • Dependent variable: School enrollment, primary (% gross), Interval-Ratio variable • Independent Variables (all Interval-Ratio variables) • Gov't Effectiveness • Reflects perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies. • Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita) • GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) • Public spending on education, total (% of GDP) • Data Sources • World Bank’s World Development Indicators • World Bank’s The Worldwide Governance Indicators project

  5. Descriptive Statistics • Observations • Over half the school enrollment appears to be over 100% • Most likely due to sizable grade repetition • Ideal score is 100% • Uni-modal histogram Government corruption rates variable was removed due to collinearity with other variables (especially government effectiveness).

  6. Bivariate analysis Explanation: When the expenditure per student is low, the school enrollment rates are higher (majority over 100%). In this case, over 100% is not a ‘good thing’ since the numbers would represent grade repetition. As the expenditure increases, the enrollment rate levels off to around 100%, which is our ideal number. DISCLAIMER: More data is needed to confirm correlation with expenditure per student (% of GDP per capita)

  7. Regression Analysis, School enrollment, primary (% gross) Even though only the Expenditure per student variable is significant, Model # 4 is the best in explaining the variables. All the independent variables combined can explain 10% of the variations in primary school enrollment. In this model, the significant variable has a negative, strong correlation While the expenditure per student variable is significant in all four models, the value looses its negative strength as the number of variables are added.

  8. Findings & Policy Implications of the research • Findings: Did you accept your research hypothesis? • I rejected my research hypothesis for government variables • Challenge with collinearity if more government variables were added • Accepted research hypothesis for *some* economic factors (Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita) • Even this needs to be investigated further due to small number of cases • More research is needed on what types of factors in addition to expenditure amounts will allow desirable enrollment rates.

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