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Global Warming

Global Warming. What is it? What ’ s causing it? What are the solutions?. Greenhouse effect. CO2: one of the main heat-trapping gases. Its concentration in the atmosphere, past 250 yrs. Past 10,000 yrs.

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Global Warming

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  1. Global Warming • What is it? • What’s causing it? • What are the solutions?

  2. Greenhouse effect

  3. CO2: one of the main heat-trapping gases. Its concentration in the atmosphere, past 250 yrs. Past 10,000 yrs

  4. CO2 concentration: 400,000 yrs--4 ice ages.Read graph from right to left.Recent increase unprecedented, NOT a natural cycle. Present interglacial period

  5. It’s getting warmer 2010, 2005, 1998: tied as hottest years on record. 2001-2010: hottest decade on record.

  6. Global warming is here now! • The number of severe hurricanes has increased by 80% during past 30 yrs. • Droughts in Texas, western states. • Decrease in migratory birds, due to warmer winters in northern states. • Increase in tree mortality, Western U.S. • pH of ocean is dropping due to CO2; affects corals, shellfish. • Range shifts of MANY biological species. • Forest fires are increasing, as predicted. • Prolonged dry spells. • Reduced snowpack. • More rain, more extreme rain. • Polar bear now “endangered.” • Bacterial “blooms” in waters. • ETC!

  7. Glacier National Park, Montana, is melting. Glacier nat park, Montanna-1 1850: 150 named glaciers. 2007: 26. 2030: 0 expected

  8. S Cascade Glacier, Washington, 1928, 1979, 2003.

  9. Alaska

  10. Austria

  11. Arctic melt extent, 1979 and 2003 Expected to be ice-free in summer by 2030. Recentlly: Melting has accelerated. “Arctic ice could be in an abrupt, irreversible decline.” Are we approaching a tipping point? Reflectivity feedback could have serious consequences for Greenland.

  12. Greenland ice is melting

  13. Greenland melt extent

  14. James Hansen, NASA’s chief climatologist, GW expert: Earth could pass a “tipping point” during next 10 to 20 yrs that would initiate irreversible melting of the Greenland and W Antarctic ice caps, raising sea levels by 50 feet over the next few centuries and “produce a new planet.”We could see 10-ft rises by the end of this century.

  15. Is this what you want for your grandchildren?It’s a moral issue!

  16. What’s causing the warming? When we look at the patterns of global changes (temps, ice, rainfall, etc.) …..

  17. …we find that natural sources cannot explain it, but human-emissions of greenhouse gases do. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): • “Unequivocal” that climate is warming, • “Very likely” that human activities are major driver.

  18. The cause: mostly fossil fuels Carbon in atmosphere

  19. IPCC Report: A conservative document • Spons by U.N. & World Meteorological Org • ~3000 scientists compile the 6-yr reports • Based on tens of thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers published in hundreds of scientific journals • Results arrived at by consensus

  20. The major U.S. carbon polluters: Electric Power 41% Transportation 33% 3/4 from coal 3/4 from cars and trucks

  21. COAL • 1 plant = 1 million cars SOLUTIONS: • Energy efficiency & alternative energy sources • Carbon capture & storage! (~50% price incr) • Congress could mandate CCS

  22. CARS • 6 tons of CO2 / yr, 3 X car’s weight! SOLUTIONS: • 55 mpg by 2020 (hybrids today) • Plug-in hybrids, attached to renewable electricity • Gasoline tax of several $ per gallon • “Externalities” of driving: $12 per gallon!

  23. The Solutions: Reduce CO2 emissions: Efficiency (use less) Renewables (solar, wind) Nuclear power Carbon capture and storage More broadly: Preserve, replant forests Limit population growth

  24. The best choice: Energy efficiency!

  25. Bicycling

  26. Pedestrian zones, pedestrian streets

  27. Light rail for NW Arkansas!

  28. Renewables: Wind

  29. Photovoltaics

  30. Solar-thermal electricity

  31. Active solar heating

  32. Passive (or direct) solar

  33. Geothermal energy For electricity: For heating & cooling:

  34. Biofuels From corn today: bad idea! With research: biofuels from grasses… … and agri waste

  35. Also: Nuclear power • No greenhouse gases ! • Serious drawbacks (proliferation etc.) • MUCH safer than fossil fuels. China, India

  36. 20 leading climate scientists published a paper in Naturein Sep 2009: • Our present 390 ppm atm CO2 concentration is already unsustainable and dangerous. • We need to move it back to 350 ppm asap, in order to hold the temp increase to 2oC. James Hansen, NASA’s cilmatologist Paul Crutzen Nobel Prize, Chem.

  37. What’s needed: • 60% global emissions reduction by 2050. • Converge on 1.5 tons / person-yr • India: emits 1 ton / person-yr today • US: emits 20 tons / person-yr --must reduce by 90% • Europe: reduce by 80%. • But emissions are increasing, not decreasing!

  38. THANK YOU! Thank you ART HOBSON ahobson@uark.edu Website: physics.uark.edu/hobson We’re all in this together!

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