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Plan

Policies toward sustainable regional development: Integrated modelling of economy, mobility and air pollution Paul Safonov, Vincent Favrel, and Walter Hecq Centre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE) Université Libre de Bruxelles - Free University of Brussels (ULB). Plan.

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Plan

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  1. Policies toward sustainable regional development:Integrated modelling of economy, mobility and air pollutionPaul Safonov, Vincent Favrel, and Walter HecqCentre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE)Université Libre de Bruxelles - Free University of Brussels (ULB)

  2. Plan • Four Stage Transport Model • TRIPS - Professional Transport Planning Tool • A Case Study: Aim of the Project • System of Models • Data Sources and Availability • Software Solutions • Scenarios and Simulations • Policy Recommendations Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  3. Trip generation Trip Distribution Modal Choice Assignment Four-stage transport model Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  4. TRIPS software modules TRIPS is a set of inter-related modules as listed below. These contain the ‘building blocks’ of a model, enabling the user to access the features and facilities to build models which meet individual requirements. • Highway Assessment • Public Transport Assignment • Demand Modeling • Matrix Estimation • TRIPS Graphics • TRIPS Manager - Graphical Project Management Tool • Data Processing TRIPS and Showman Plus Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  5. Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  6. Analysis of the environmental impacts of mobilityin the Brussels-Capital region, induced by major regional policy options: Environmental impacts of mobility: emissions of air pollutants, which have effect at local level (CO, PM), regional level (NOX, VOC, SO2), and global level - the contribution of the Brussels region to greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) emissions Policy options: offices' and housingrelocation, transportation network development, modal shift, [parking, pricing/taxation, and other urban policies;] Tool: System of Socio-Economic/Mobility/Emissions models A Case Study: Aim of the Project Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  7. System of Models • Population and Employment dynamics spatial forecasts (per sector of activity) in Brussels • Main Economic sectors development model • Economic scenarios are used to estimate the demand in buildings (including offices) and workers in each economic sector. • Office stock dynamics (supply): spatial econometric models • Mobility model: O/D matrices generation and static assignment for public and private transport. • Air pollution: “vehicles-emissions” & "non renewable fuel consumption" models (new European/Belgian regulations on vehicles) Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  8. Structure of the Integrated Model Transport Policy • Transport network development • Fleet Composition • Taxation and Pricing • Parking, etc Emissions/ Immissions Model Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  9. Economic and demographic forecasts • Macro-economic development indicators by main sectors of activities and respective demand for labor resources; • General birth rate and population dynamics; • Main trends and shifts in population and labor resources structure (e.g. from workers to executives, from permanent residents to foreigners and migrants, from town to periphery, growth of the share of middle-age (working) population, etc.); • Spatial distribution of the population in the region, according to different assumptions on the urban policy and economic scenarios. Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  10. Office relocation modeling • Tendencies in Brussels office stock dynamics • Parking policy • Early consideration of environmental implications in the urban planning process • Increasing urban densities around points of high accessibility • Integrating land use and transport planning encouraging mixed land use schemes Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  11. Software Solutions • General Interface for the System of Models:Visual-Basic, TRIPS Command Language (TCL) • Demographic forecasts, Economic activities model:TCL, Excel, STATISTICA • Urban development, O/D matrices generation:TRIPS Demand Modelling Module • Assignment: TRIPS Highway Assessment and Public Transport Assessment Modules • Emissions:Visual-Basic, Excel Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  12. Data Sources and Availability • National Statistical Institute (INS/NIS) • Administration of the Brussels-Capital Region: • Brussels Office Survey (Jones Lang Wootton reports) • Review of Office Property • Regional Mobility Plan (Plan “IRIS”) • Regional Plan of Land Use (P.R.A.S.) • Regional Development Plan (P.R.D.) • Sustainable Mobility Information System (SMIS)A Meta-data base (CEESE-ULB) Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  13. Area under study BCR Legend: Number of district (1987) Brussels-Europe area: districts 20-22, 43-45, 47 "Midi" (south central) area: districts 11, 12, 29 "Nord" (north central) area: districts 17, 18, 39 "Pentagone" (central) area: districts 1-9 Ring road Administrative border of the the Brussels-Capital Region Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  14. Share of Brussels in the National Economy Source: Duchâteau (1998), and own calculations, based on data base of Banque Nationale ,1999 Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  15. Classification of sectors of activities (NACE 1) 0. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery 1. Energy and Water 2. Extraction and Transformation of minerals, Chemical Industry 3. Metallurgy, Manufacturing of Precise Mechanics 4. Other Manufacturing Industries 5. Construction and Civil Engineering, 6. Commerce, Restaurants, Accommodation, Reparations 7. Transport and Communications 8. Credit Institutions, Insurance, Trade 9. Other services Source: Kumps, A.-M., Taymans, M (1995) Développment du secteur tertiaire de la Région de Bruxelles-Capitale, N 27, IRIS Editions, BRES, Bruxelles. Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  16. Dynamics of mobility in the Brussels-Capital Region 1985-1998 Calculated from:Recenment de la Circulation, Ministere des Communications et del'infrastructure, 1998. Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  17. Composition of the Belgian private vehicle fleet in 1991 Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  18. Road Network in the Brussels Area • 255 zones • 2,545 nodes • 8,366 links Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  19. Arts Loi Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  20. Origin-Destination Matrix and Traffic AssignmentMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) • 1991 : 1,9 mln cars 1996: 2,15 mln cars (+11%)3 mln veh*km 3,6 mln veh*km (+20%) Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  21. Emission Calculation Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  22. Emission Functions Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  23. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) EmissionMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) 1991:71 ton 1996: 61 ton (-15%) Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  24. Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) EmissionMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) 1991:4 ton 1996: 4,36 ton (+8%) Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  25. Considerations for Scenarios • Mobility tendencies in the Region • Modal Choice Patterns • Developments of the Transportation Network • Dynamics of Vehicle Composition Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  26. Congestion Level (Saturation Index = Number of Cars/Link Capacity)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) 1991 2005 Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  27. Origin-Destination Matrix and Traffic AssignmentMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) • 2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario2005: “Sust.Transport” Scenario Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  28. Carbon Dioxide CO2 Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) 2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario2005: “Sustainable Transport” Scenario Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  29. Methane (CH4) Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) 2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario2005: “Sustainable Transport” Scenario Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  30. Zaventem Sulfur Dioxide (S02) Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30) 2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario2005: “Sustainable Transport” Scenario Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  31. Comparative analysis of scenarios: totals relative dynamics (1991 = 100%) Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  32. Policy Recommendations • Development of the mixed land-use schemes, favouring the localisation of offices and residential areas close to the accessibility points; • Improvement of the links in public transports between the city centre and the suburbs (suburban metro/suburban express rail system - RER); • Introduction of the parking control, which would favour the switch from roads to public transport. • Decrease of automobile traffic in residential areas and limitation of the congestion in the city centre by means of traffic-flow control measures; • Improvement of the travel conditions of pedestrians and cyclists. • Stimulation of the use of LPG-driven and electric vehicles. Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

  33. Thank you!

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