Presentation Transcript

1. Bacon & Eggheads Breakfast Petit-déjeuner avec des têtes à Papineau PAGSE PFST Gordon McBean Western University Reducing Risks, Gaining Benefits – Coping with Weird Weather in a Changing Climate Réduire les risques et obtenir des avantages : s’adapter à la météo incertaine dans le contexte des changements climatiquess Supported by Appuyé par
2. Professor Gordon McBean C.M., O.Ont, Ph.D., FRSC Chair, Canadian Climate Forum Centre for Environment and Sustainability Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Western University President-elect International Council for Sceince
3. A Changing Climate
4. CLIMATE IS THE “STATISTICS OF WEATHER” AND THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING 0.18 0.13
5. The World Meteorological Organization (2011): “2010 ranked as the warmest year on record, together with 2005 and 1998”. “The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, and are the highest ever recorded for a 10-year period since the beginning of instrumental climate records. IPCC (2007) - Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
6. Weather-climate related disasters in Canada (1900-2011) GEOPHYSICALEarthquake, volcanic eruption METEOROLOGICALSevere weather, winter & tropical storms, hail, tornado HYDROLOGICALRiver & flash flood, storm surge, landslide CLIMATOLOGICALHeatwave, freeze, wildland fire, drought TREND Severe storms CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS ARE INCREASING AND ARE NOW MORE THAN 75% OF EVENTS Number Floods Wildfire 10 Year Period * Only two years of decade
7. Projections for the future climate and “weird” weather. “Weird” is unusual and the opposite of “normal”. In climate we define “normal” in terms of 30-y (or at least decadal) means and statistics.
8. PROJECTED WARMING IN THE FUTURE FUTURE GROWTH OF 3-5° SCIENCE UNCERTAINTY 0.2+ 0.18 0.13 WARMING OC PER DECADE
9. Focus on 2050SEASONAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE (relative to 1961–1990) WINTER SUMMER 4.5°C 3.5°C 3.5°C Canada will warm more than global average warming + 1.5C by 2050 Much warmer winters and warmer summers by 2050.
10. SEASONAL CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION BY 2050(relative to 1961–1990) WINTER SUMMER Hot weather and reduced rain – desertification risk 30% <10% 10% More precipitation inwinters by 2050. More rain and less snow. Summers– variable change.
11. % CHANGES IN PROJECTED SNOW DEPTH (MARCH 2050) UP TO 100% REDUCTIONS ACROSS MID-LATITUDES
12. Weird Weather in a Changing Climate and its Costs Weird (unusual) Weather will become the new “normal”.
13. CANADIANS AND PEOPLE AROUND THE GLOBE WILL NEED TO “ADAPT”: “making adjustments in our decisions, activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate, in order to moderate harm or take advantage of new opportunities.” Reducing Risks, Gaining Benefits – Coping with Weird Weather in a Changing Climate Weird weather – how to adapt?
14. Human Health in a Changing Climate:A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity (2008) “Climate change is expected to increase risk to the health of Canadians through many pathways: they food they eat, the air they breathe, the water they drink, and their exposure to extreme weather events and infectious diseases found in nature.” “Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century” Lancet and UCL, 2009
15. NUMBER OF HOT DAYS* PER YEAR IN EUROPE: RECORD SETTING AUGUST 2003 (MORE THAN 70,000 DEATHS) WILL BE EVERY SECOND SUMMER BY MID-CENTURY 68 37 22 8 Projected Observed Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis *A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum temperature above 30C
16. The 8 day heat event in 2009 in the Vancouver and Lower Fraser area caused 134 deaths Extreme Events More Hot Days A 1990’s 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-3-5 (Year) event by 2050. 4-6 times as many hot days. By 2050, for every 100,000 people, 6-8 additional deaths and about $500,000 costs– across southern Canada. NRTEE – 2011: Paying the Price: The Economic Costs of Climate Change for Canada Heat warnings - Water Green space and shade Design of structures Attention to elderly and handicapped
17. Eastern Canada Ice Storm 1998 30+ deaths $5 b + damages Months of impact Extreme Events Freezing Rain Extreme events - the unborn and children : “Children whose mother experienced high stress (during the Quebec 1998 ice storm) scored lower on IQ and language performance tests than those whose mothers had less stress.” Freezing rain events by 2050 Ottawa –Montreal-Quebec City: 50% INCREASE in the number of freezing rain events of more than 4 hours. Close to 80% increase of events of more than 6 hours.
18. Extreme Events SUMMER STORMS Toronto Rain/Wind Event 2005 $624 m insured losses Calgary Rain/Wind – 2010 – $1B Calgary Rain/Wind – 2009 – $362 m SW Ontario Rain/Wind –2009 – $482 m Calgary Hail – 1991 – $885 m By 2050, a 1990’s 1-in-20 year annual maximum daily precipitation amount is likely to become a 1-in-10 to 1-in-15 year event. ABOUT TWICE as MANY HEAVY SUMMER STORMS.
19. Extreme Events SUMMER STORMS – TORNADOES With more heavy precipitation and hot days -- Increased risk of tornadoes Tornadoes Goderich tornado – 2011 GTA (Vaughan) tornado – 2009 Pine Lake - 2000 Edmonton tornado – 1987
20. Coping with Weird Weather Improved observations and predictions Better structural design of homes and property. Insurance Research Laboratory for Better Homes Wind Engineering, Energy and Environment Dome Meteorological Service Environment Canada
21. Extreme Events FLOODING By 2050, with about twice as many heavy precipitation events, more floods are projected. Flooding Alberta – 2005 – $327 m Saguenay – 1996 – $271 m Winnipeg – 1993 – $252 m Flood warnings Dykes, water control Land-use planning
22. The 1999-2004 Drought 0-20% of expected yield for spring wheat, barley, canola, and field peas 2002 1999-2004 Prairie Drought - prelude of future droughts. Reduce vulnerability - early warning and more lead time for adaptations. Consul, SK In 2001 and 2002 drought years: $5.8 billion in lost GDP 41,000+ jobs lost 5 times as many forest fires in Alberta Blowing dust - contributing factor in two fatalities
23. Extreme Events WILDFIRES Slave Lake Fire 2011 $700 m insured losses Kelowna – 2003 – $227 m Fire proofing Land-use planning Fire control - warnings By 2030 MORE THAN 50% INCREASE
24. Climate Change and Its Impact on Horticulture in Ontario Apple Crop in Ontario 2012 – 80% lost Better predictions Adaptations Crop selection BIOTRON Climate Change/Dealing with Adverse Weather
25. ATLANTIC CANADA Storm Warnings Coastal Defences Structural and Community Preparedness Sea Level Rise – and Hurricanes with Stronger Winds
26. Sea Level Rise Adaptation PrimerA toolkit to build adaptive capacity on Canada’s south coasts - January 2013 SEA LEVEL RISE- Impacting all our coasts
27. Greater Vancouver – sea level rise 1m of SLR would cause an about $12B in damages to City of Vancouver alone. Much of Vancouver’s infrastructure was built to historical standards and will require significant reinforcement. In 2011, BCMoE issued guidelines specifying that coastal infrastructure should be designed to withstand 1.2m over 100 years (=3.3m with storm surge and king tide conditions); 2m over 200 years. Current Impacts and Responses
28. IN THE NORTH Cold winters are needed in order to build roads over otherwise impassable lakes and muskeg. Most years the Tibbitt to Contwoyto winter road is open 70 days, but the warm winter of 2005-06 meant only 50 days of use thanks to a late start and early closure. Only 6,841 loads out of the planned 9,000 loads made it by truck into the Diavik Diamond Mine, which then had to spend tens of millions of dollars flying in 13,000 tonnes of dry cargo and 11,000 tonnes of fuel. With the warmer climate, this will be a much bigger problem
29. Climate Change – as a national security issue Arctic Sovereignty Northwest Passage Continental Shelf Extension Exploration and exploitation of Arctic resources
30. Integrated Environmental Prediction – on all times scales Informing decision making for coping with the weather in a changing climate Agriculture: Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks; this informs crop choice and planting date to optimise yields and minimise crop failure risk. Disaster Risk Reduction: Predicting hazardous weather conditions and disseminating tailored and timely warnings to reduce the impact on vulnerable communities. Food security: Monthly to decadal predictions to warn local, national and international communities of expected drought conditions. Water Resources: Applying regional scale climate model predictions to inform climate change adaptation decisions. UK Met Office
31. Vancouver, Bangkok, Manila, Lagos Partnering with Shanghai and others 2011-2016 Better planned and safer cities and reduced socio-economic impacts as the climate changes. Highly Qualified Personnel in Canada and in our country partners

    Coastal Cities at Risk - Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing ClimateChange in Coastal Megacities

32. SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION Canada’s climate is changing and these weather trends are already affecting Canadians; Severe weather is projected to increase over the next 40 years and beyond; Information about weather and climate on times scales from now to next decades will allow public and private sector leaders to reduce risks and gain benefits; Science, engineering and technology provide solutions.
33. The End Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes Thank you for your attention