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Iron Fertilisation – Some Secondary Effects

Iron Fertilisation – Some Secondary Effects. Peter S Liss School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich UK p.liss@uea.ac.uk. NO μ M. Jickells et al., Science , 2005. Jickells et al. 2005. Sue Turner. Fe addition to the ocean. Boyd et al. 2007. Boyd et al. 2007.

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Iron Fertilisation – Some Secondary Effects

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  1. Iron Fertilisation – Some Secondary Effects Peter S Liss School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich UK p.liss@uea.ac.uk

  2. NO μM

  3. Jickells et al., Science, 2005 Jickells et al. 2005

  4. Sue Turner

  5. Fe addition to the ocean Boyd et al. 2007 Boyd et al. 2007

  6. SEEDS 1 Day 11 Day 2 Plankton net samples (100mm, 0-20m) in the patch on day 2 and day 11

  7. Watson et al. 2000

  8. data model Ironex II - like SOIREE - like (Aumont and Bopp, 2006)

  9. (unrealistic) global-scale iron fertilization experiment • Method : • no more iron limitation • for 10 or 100 years • Results : • - 33 pmm after 100 years • - 7 ppm after 10 years, but if stopped, • sequestered carbon is lost rapidly • non-local effects (on productivity, …) (Aumont and Bopp, 2006)

  10. Nitrous Oxide Jin & Gruber 2003

  11. Charlson et al. 1987

  12. days after start of iron enrichment days after start of iron enrichment SOIREE ‘99: EVOLUTION OF DMSP AND DMS IN THE UPPER WATER COLUMN INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE IRON-ENRICHED PATCH DMS inside DMSP inside DMSP outside DMS outside SUZANNE TURNER DMS nmol l-1 DMSP nmol l-1

  13. Turner et al. 2004

  14. New Directions: Enhancing the natural sulfur cycle to slow global warmingWingenter et al. 2007

  15. Methyl iodide concentrations during a Southern Ocean iron enrichment experiment (EISENEX, Nov-Dec 2000) IN PATCH Depth (m) OUT PATCH Depth (m) CH3I ng/l Adele Chuck

  16. Southern Ocean Iron Fertilisation (EISENEX): Liss et al. 2005 chlorophyll a carbon dioxide methyl nitrate dimethyl sulphide bromoform methyl iodide day day day IN OUT Air Quality

  17. day 0 day 5 Biodiversity

  18. Other Secondary Effects Nutrient robbing Cyclones/hurricanes Geo-engineering and ocean acidification

  19. SOLAS Position statement on large-scale ocean fertilisation (2007)Large-scale fertilisation of the ocean is being actively promoted by various commercial organisations as a strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels. However, the current scientific evidence indicates that this will not significantly increase carbon transfer into the deep ocean or lower atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, there may be negative impacts of iron fertilisation including dissolved oxygen depletion, altered trace gas emissions that affect climate and air quality, changes in biodiversity, and decreased productivity in other oceanic regions. It is then critical and essential that robust and independent scientific verification is undertaken before large-scale fertilisation is considered. Given our present lack of knowledge, the judgement of the SOLAS SSC is that ocean fertilisation will be ineffective and potentially deleterious, and should not be used as a strategy for offsetting CO2 emissions.

  20. Royal Society, 2009

  21. “Give me half a tanker of iron, and I’ll give you an ice age.” Martin, 1988

  22. “Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment (i.e. added CO2 to the atmosphere) of a kind that could not have happened in the past or be reproduced in the future (Roger Revelle and Hans Suess, 1957) .Pilots in the Royal Flying Corps in WWI were not issued with parachutes (nor were they allowed to buy their own) since this “might impair their fighting spirit”. “Only fools find joy in the prospect of climate engineering. It’s foolish to think that risk of significant climate damage can be denied or wished away. Perhaps we can depend on the transcendent human capacity for self-sacrifice when faced with unprecedented shared, long-term risk, and therefore can depend on future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. But just in case, we’d better have a plan” (Ken Caldeira, 2008).“A focus on tinkering with the entire planetary system is not a dynamic new technological and scientific frontier, but an expression of political despair” (Greenpeace, 2008).The US Presidential Science Advisory Council in 1965 identified geo-engineering as the only response to the CO2 climate problem, reporting that “The possibilities of deliberately bringing about countervailing climatic changes therefore needs to be deliberately explored” – the possibility of reducing fossil fuel use was not discussed.

  23. Age of scientific innocence is over (Fe fertilisation, CRU) • Geo-engineering may be needed if all else fails • Research to eliminate unworkable ideas and thoroughly test those that might be useful (including secondary effects and unintended consequences) • Favour – carbon capture/removal schemes – reversible– scaleable from small to large • Against – large direct schemes (particularly SRM) • Governance – legal, political, financial aspects

  24. Any Questions?

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