Presentation Transcript

1. U3A Lecture, October 23, 2012

   Sustainable Futures in a Time of Social Transition Marcus Bussey mbussey@usc.edu.au
2. History-Futures? What is the study of the future? The SEQCARI project and Historical Scenarios Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
3. I teach history but research the future We study the future because assumptions about it inform our decisions and actions today Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
4. Anticipation and Possibility Anticipation covers both our preferences and our fears. The word evokes a sense of promise, and this is important to any futures practice, as to see the future as only a place of dark foreboding diminishes our ability to respond proactively and with the necessary mixture of courage and imagination. Yet… Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
5. …we also need to have the real fear of collapse and decline to goad us into both personal and collective action. Thus anticipatory futures offers us both the carrot and the stick…. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
6. Both are woven into the fabric of the possible and both invite us to consider how best to engage with the question of sustainable futures as a praxis grounded in local realities yet striving for a beyond that will remain forever unattainable; offering a universalisable possibility of sustainability that is always just out of reach, yet always calling us forth to action. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
7. Sense Making The world is complex Reality is fluid Consciousness is layered Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
8. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
9. The future can be studied by its effects Business as usual Preferred Used Disowned Transformed Outlier Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
10. Futures and Foresight Futures – the application of futures thinking to the world around us Foresight – the strategic application of futures thinking to the world around us Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
11. Normative action Futures thinking is an exercise in practical imagination Philosophically it is a form of pragmatism (a philosophical tradition) Pragmatism accepts both the limitations of structure and the possibilities of human action and works between these two to improve the human condition Futures thinking is normative, i.e., it is committed to an outcome Futures thinking is partisan Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
12. Foresight has Tangible Outcomes Scenarios Survey results Sectoral analyses Critical technology lists Technology priority lists Technology roadmaps Panel documents - Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) Policy recommendations Guiding vision description Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
13. Foresight has Intangible outcomes Resilience Vision Creativity Connectivity and Networked Innovation Hybridity Confidence Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
14. Learning Culture Bringing these strands together sets the basis for a learning culture: Participatory Anticipatory Action Learning Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
15. Uses of the Future Training Strategy Creating capacity Emergence New memes Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
16. Six Pillars – Futures Processes Mapping – Futures tri angle and 4QM Anticipating – emerging issues (next slide) Timing – macrohistory and models of change Deepening – CLA Creating Alternatives – scenarios Transforming – Vision and Transcend Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
17. Creating Alternatives Structural analysis of context – seeks to redefine roles and processes internal to context Scenarios – “Scenarios are the tool par excellence of futures studies. They open up the present, contour the range of uncertainty, offer alternatives, and even better, predict” (Inayatullah, 2008, p. 15). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
18. Pseudo-Futures We need to develop and explore personal, local and civilisational futures that are authentic, sustainable and libratory This is done by identifying the authentic from a range of scrambled and misleading signals Authentic futures are those that lead all in context to a maximum fulfilment of potential From sustainability perspective this includes the natural world Maximum fulfilment is win-win – it is an aspirational future trajectory Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
19. Sustainability Leaders Leaders are those with practical imagination In this they combine vision (idealism) with context Within a dynamic relational net they act as an authority hub from which and into which social process and learning flow They carry both real and symbolic capital – ie they have bodies but also are bodiless! Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
20. Futures thinking draws on foresight, anticipation and emergence, is located in the present, leverages the best of tradition while working from the present to foster optimal futures for all (in context) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
21. The old real estate adage: Context ContextContext! Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
22. Adaptation and homo sapiens “…our patterns of thought, behavior, production, and consumption are adapted to our current circumstances – that is, to the current climate (and global biogeochemistry), to the twentieth century’s abundance of cheap energy and cheap fresh water, to rapid population growth, and to yet more rapid economic growth.” (McNeill, 2000: xxii) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
23. “These patterns are not easily adaptable should our circumstances change” (McNeill, 2000: xxii). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
24. “…we as a species are choosing a particular evolutionary gambit. In the very long view of biological evolution, the best survival strategy is to be adaptable, to pursue diverse sources of subsistence – and to maximize resilience” (McNeill, 2000: xxii) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
25. He concludes “This is because in the long run there will be surprises, shocks, and catastrophes that kill off some species, no matter how well adapted they may be to one specific set of circumstances” (McNeill, 2000: xxii). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
26. David Orr: “We are prone to overdo what worked in the past, with the result that many of our current problems stem from past success carried to an extreme.” (2002, P. 25) Also: “Stupidity is probably as great a factor in human affairs as intelligence.” (ibid) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
27. Managing for the future From a systems perspective risk increases exponentially when foresight is limited to a business as usual mindset that seeks to shut out, or suppress, the disturbances in a system. In this the understandable desire to keep the system closed, and therefore manageable, competes with the reality that systems are embedded in systems and that the appearance of ‘closed’ is illusory. To survive and thrive in a complex and dynamic system requires different skill sets than the managerial competencies that strive for order in a complex world. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
28. Take Five! Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
29. Scenarios Scenarios are a key tool for fostering social learning. They do this by suggesting alternatives, challenging dominant constructions of the present and allowing people to develop visions of the future that are aligned to their own aspirations as individuals and communities. Furthermore, they challenge linear constructions of social process and affirm human agency – our ability to act on the present – by highlighting our centrality as social actors (see Inayatullah, Molitor, et al, 2009). (Bussey et al, 2010: 6) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
30. Why history? The collection of historical case studies served to: stimulate thinking about the future; describe specific historical contexts in which social learning either succeeded or failed to respond to an environmental or social stress; identify and profile key determinants in the success or failure described in the previous point; and suggest historical-futures templates (scenarios) for thinking about climate change adaptive capacity and how we might most effectively respond over time (Bussey et al, 2012: 386). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
31. Adaptive Capacity “Adaptive capacity is historically specific. It is a measure of the human ability to respond to threats and stimuli in the social and natural environment. As such, it is framed by a set of contextual tangible (e.g. assets, finances) and intangible (e.g. values, knowledge) variables” (Bussey et al, 2012: 387). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
32. Determinants of Adaptive Capacity Complexity and Leadership Institutions and Values Technology and Imagination Information and Knowledge Scale Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
33. Mapping Systems Like all systems, the human system is always responding to feedback from its environment. Yet the environment is not homogenous. Systems inhabit systems and function across scales of action from the intensely local to the macrocosmic. Yet it is easy to reify this human system and forget that people inhabit it at all levels and that all responses are therefore human responses. This research sought to explore this human ‘system’ through historical case studies. Being aware that the system was not homogenous, we (1) chose case studies that were relevant to the sectoral interests the overall study is designed to inform, and (2) proposed a four-quadrant representation of the social system that adequately accounts for the heterogeneity of the system (Bussey et al, 2012: 387). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
34. We were looking for a way to distill human experience without loosing its meaning We chose the four quadrant model (4QM) of Ken Wilber (Wilber, 2001) The detailed rationale is offered at (Bussey et al, 2012: 387-388). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
35. Level One – Folding Field of Adaptive Capacity Mapping Determinants Internal Determinants Beliefs Habits Hopes/Fears Desire Symbols Customs Values (e.g. authoritarian/egalitarian) Leadership (i.e. adaptive or brittle) Memory/History Competition/Cooperation Knowledge and Reason Social Risk Taking Identity ExternalDeterminants Weather Resources Demography Growth/Decline Ecosystems Wildcards Technology Laws Institutions Resource Networks (commerce) Politics Policy Social Addiction Micro Meso Macro
36. Level Two – Folding Field of Adaptive Capacity Mapping Determinants Macro Personal – Subjective (e.g. spirituality) Impersonal – Objective (e.g. events/chaos) Meso Micro Impersonal – Collective (e.g. secular humanism) Personal – Collective (e.g. religion) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
37. Level Three – Folding Field of Adaptive Capacity Mapping Determinants Macro Beliefs Habits Hopes/Fears Desire Symbols Weather Resources Demography Growth/Decline Ecosystems Wildcards (hurricane) Meso Micro Technology Laws Institutions Resource Networks Politics Policy Wildcards (invasion) Social Addiction Customs Values Leadership Memory/History Competition/Cooperation Knowledge and Reason Social Risk Taking Identity Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
38. Level Four – Folding Field of Adaptive Capacity Mapping Determinants Macro Beliefs Habits Hopes/Fears Desire Symbols Weather Resources Demography Growth/Decline Ecosystems Wildcards (hurricane) Meso Micro Technology Laws Institutions Resource Networks Politics Policy Wildcards (invasion) Social Addiction Customs Values Leadership Memory/History Competition/Cooperation Knowledge and Reason Social Risk Taking Identity Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
39. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
40. Mapping Future Possibilities via… Historical Scenarios We used the case studies to stimulate thinking about the future by switching them from historical narrative to futures spaces Moving from past to future allows us to chart human learning processes while acknowledging the contextual nature of learning The focus ultimately is on determinants (not the ‘story’) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
41. Patterns… ‘‘Like the shape around the flight of gnats, a scenario attempts to describe the shape around possible future events, a structure within which events may occur . . . a scenario is a description of the environment, and is not a description of the sequence of events themselves. To say a scenario is a description of an environment is to already admit to examining a conceptual space, rather than a line’’ (Staley, 2010: 77) Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
42. Coordinates Probable Possible Plausible Preferable Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
43. Solon’s Athens 590BCE Out of chaos a new idea emerges: democracy Takes 100 years to gain legitimacy Lesson: Change always experiences a period of up take when it is an emergent trend (one amongst many) before it gains momentum and legitimacy. This case study is a reminder that patience and persistence go hand-in-hand with vision and courageous leadership. Social memory is also important because people had to remember what it was that Solon had sought to establish. The democratisation of Athens also flags the necessity of building the institutional infrastructure and conceptual tools in anticipation of a desired change. Practical responses therefore inhabit all four quadrants of Fig. 1 presented earlier in this paper: we need responses now (UR), institutional preparedness both now and into the future (LR), cultural ferment in which new ideas, values and language are sown through effective leadership (LL), and also individual ownership of this cultural ferment (UL) for sustainable futures to be even considered a viable possibility. (Bussey et al, 2012: 392). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
44. Dator’s Scenario taxonomy continuation or business as usual; collapse in which a society loses coherence and returns to a less complex form of social order as happened following the fall of Rome; a disciplined society that adheres to a strict social or spiritual/religious ideology such as in feudal Europe, communist North Korea and Taliban dominated regions of Afghanistan; or, transformation, in which context experiences a qualitative shift to another level of social order as occurred when Western society moved from an agricultural to an industrial society. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
45. Scenarios and SEQ Scenarios have been chosen as a trigger for discussion and reflection amongst stake holders The past as a resource for rethinking the present The future is a stimulus to adaptive activity in the present Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
46. Scenarios suggest… “…alternatives [by] challenging dominant constructions of the present and allowing people to develop preferred visions of the future, identify futures they wish to avoid and to explore the logics inherent to both. Scenarios challenge linear constructions of social process and affirm human agency – our ability to act on the present – by highlighting our centrality as social actors. Furthermore, … scenarios can inform decision making and reduce the instances of folly with which history abounds” (Bussey et al, 2012: 393). Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
47. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
48. Conclusion Sustainable futures are many and varied All require shifts in assumptions and values Sustainable futures are not utopias but open ended processes that increase equity and inclusivity while decreasing human dependence on finite energy resources Sustainable futures cannot simply be strategised, they need to involve that anticipatory dimension that calls us to be our best while warning us simultaneously to beware of hubris Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au
49. References Bussey, M., Carter, R. W., Carter, Jennifer., Mangoyana, Robert., Matthews, Julie., Nash, Denzil., Oliver, Jeannette., Richards, Russell., Thomsen, Dana., Sano, Marcello., Smith, Tim., Weber, Estelle (2010). Societal Responses to Significant Change: An Historical Analysis of Adaptive Capacity, report for the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative. Maroochydore DC: Sustainability Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast. Bussey, M., Carter, R. W., Keys, Noni., Carter, Jennifer., Mangoyana, Robert., Matthews, Julie., Nash, Denzil., Oliver, Jeannette., Roiko, Anne., Richards, Russell., Thomsen, Dana C., Sano, Marcello., Weber, Estelle., Smith, Timothy F. (2012). Framing Adaptive Capacity through a History-Futures Lens: Lessons from the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative. Futures, 44(4), 385-397. Inayatullah, S., . Molitor, Graham, T. T. et al (2009). Scenario Symposium. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 75-156. McNeill, J. R. (2000). Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century. New York: Norton. Orr, D. (2002). The Nature of Design: Ecology, Culture and Human Intention. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Staley, D. (2010). History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future. New York: Lexington Books. Wilber, K. (2001). A Theory of Everything: An Integral Vision for Business, Politics, Science and Spirituality. Boulder: Shambhala. Sustainable Futures U3A: MBussey@usc.edu.au