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The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons

The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons. William G. Rhodes III Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM.

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The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons

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  1. The Terrorist’s Choice:Nuclear, Biological, or CyberWeapons • William G. Rhodes III • Senior Manager, Sandia National Laboratories • Albuquerque, NM Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  2. TERRORISM “Taking an innocent stranger and treating him as an enemy who you hurt or kill in order to create fear.” William Ury, “The walk from "no" to "yes," Ted.com, 11/30/2010

  3. FBI: 100% Chance of WMD Attack Vahid Majidi, FBI Assistant Director, FBI WMD Directorate, 2/14/2011

  4. 3 IDEAS

  5. 1 2 Risk Matrix Ideas of Terrorist Success 3 Black Swan Events

  6. Motivation Economic Materials & Tools Health Effects Management Psychological Effects Human Capital & Skills Infrastructure Planning & Execution OPSEC Risk = Threat x Consequence

  7. Materials & Tools Human Capital & Skills Risk = Threat x Consequence Motivation Economic Health Effects Management Psychological Effects Infrastructure Planning & Execution OPSEC

  8. Ideas of Terrorist Success

  9. New York Post, “Cargo-jet plot was a cheap thrill” POST WIRE SERVICES, Nov. 21, 2010 Operation Hemorrhage

  10. Range of Possibilities

  11. Terrorists are Failure Adverse

  12. Black Swan Events

  13. Unpredictable Large Consequences Retrospective Explainability

  14. Nuclear Weapons

  15. Materials + Knowledge

  16. 94 Pu Plutonium (239)

  17. TIME Magazine cover, “Merchant of Menace”, Feb. 14, 2005

  18. Urs Tinner, World Radio Switzerland Marco Tinner, Associated Press

  19. Changes Since 9/11 • USG Position on Terrorist Capability • KSM Warning • USG Nuclear Security Programs

  20. Final thoughts on Nuclear Weapons

  21. Biological Weapons

  22. Siege of Caffa

  23. Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe

  24. NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare

  25. NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare

  26. Terrorist Use of Biological Agents

  27. The Dalles, Oregon

  28. TIME Magazine cover, “Cult of Doom”, Apr. 3, 1995

  29. Materials + Knowledge

  30. Bacteria Toxins Rickettsia Viruses

  31. Changes Since 9/11 • 2009 Rumors of Plots • USG Bio-security Initiatives • Other Activities

  32. Final thoughts on Bio Weapons

  33. Cyber Weapons

  34. We rely on our cyber infrastructure for so much!

  35. Why are Cyber Threats Different?

  36. Viruses • Spyware • Spam • Phishing • Trojan Horse

  37. Stuxnet

  38. Changes Since 9/11 • National Cyber Security Division, US CERT DHS • Cyber Command, DoD • US Cyber Security Coordinator

  39. Final thoughts on Cyber Attacks

  40. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr, 1922 Nobel Prize Winning Physicist

  41. 3 CHOICES

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