Jack A. Kaye, Ph.D. Director Research & Analysis Program Earth-Sun System Division

1. Earth Science at NASA: Opportunities, Challenges, and AccomplishmentsPresentation to ESIP FederationJanuary 4 , 2006 Jack A. Kaye, Ph.D. Director Research & Analysis Program Earth-Sun System Division

2. Overview of Talk • NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content • NASA Earth Science Connections • Budget Update • Strategy Development • Program Evolution and Issues • Summary

4. National Goals for Space Exploration ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM • Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond. • Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations. • Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration. • Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests. • Study the Earth system from space and develop new space-based and related capabilities for this purpose.* * Added in “The New Age of Exploration” to address other Presidential initiatives and directives not covered in the Vision for Space Exploration

5. Integrated Enterprise Mgt Prog Office of the Administrator Administrator Deputy Administrator Associate Administrator Office of the Chief of S&MA Office of the Chief Engineer Chief of Staff Inspector General White House Liaison Prog Analysis & Evaluation Aerospace Safety Advisory Council NASA Advisory Council Mission Support Offices Mission Directorates Centers Ames Research Center Dryden Flight Research Center Glenn Research Center Goddard Space Flight Center Jet Propulsion Laboratory Johnson Space Flight Center Kennedy Space Center Langley Research Center Marshall Space Flight Center Exploration Systems Space Operations Science Aeronautics Research General Counsel Chief Financial Officer Chief Information Officer Innovative Partnership Program Chief Medical Officer Strategic Communications Education Public Affairs Legislative Affairs External Affairs Ofc of Institutions & Management NASA Shared Services Institutional Planning and Investments Office of infrastructure & Administration Office of Human Capital Management Office of Diversity & Equal Opportunity Office of Security and Program Protection Office of Procurement Office of Small & Disadvantaged Business Utilization V3

6. NASA Earth Science Research is Part of an End-to-End Program of Science for Society

7. With the Launch of Aura, the 1st Series of EOS is Now Complete

8. Overview of Talk • NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content • NASA Earth Science Connections • Budget Update • Strategy Development • Program Evolution and Issues • Summary

9. NSTC Structure National Science and Technology Council ScienceCommittee Environment & NaturalResources Committee Homeland & NationalSecurity Committee TechnologyCommittee Air Quality ResearchSubcommittee Subcommittee on Global Change Research Interagency Working Group onEndocrine Disruptors Ecological SystemsSubcommittee Toxics & Risk AssessmentSubcommittee Biodiversity and EcosystemInformatics Working Group Interagency Working Group onMercury Subcommittee onDisasterReduction Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (also reports to Committee on Science) Subcommittee onWater Availability &Quality Interagency Working Group onEarth Observations (IWGEO) Subcommittee on Healthand the Environment(also reports to Committee on Science and Commission onHomeland and National Security

11. OAP Ocean Governance Structure.

12. U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System(IEOS) Near Term Opportunities Data Management System for Earth Observations Improved Observations for Disaster Warnings Global Land Observation System Sea Level Observation System National Integrated Drought Information System Air Quality Assessment and Forecast System

13. Research - Operations Transition • Have significant interest (sponsor/stakeholder) in “Research to Operations Transition” • NRC referred to the “Valley of Death” • Identified by agencies as a challenge • High profile issues attract attention (e.g., TRMM) • Structures in place helping on some aspects (e.g., Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, SPoRT) • Need to be able to deal with both “weather” and “climate” issues • Note this is tied in with NPOESS for many observations • NASA-NOAA working group spun up to work this • Congressional language (NASA 2006 Authorization Bill) has requirements in this area

14. Overview of Talk • NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content • NASA Earth Science Connections • Budget Update • Strategy Development • Program Evolution and Issues • Summary

15. Science Program Summary: Proposed FY06 Budget Budget Authority in $ Millions

16. Future Budget Outlook • Statement in Letter from NASA Administrator to OMB Director: • “Having weighed various options, NASA’s preferred approach to the FY 207 budget, within current top-line constraints, is to hold NASA’s Science budget fixed at FY 2006 levels for the next five years in order to allow for continued assembly of the International Space Station with the Space Shuttle until its retirement in 2010, and to provide the funds needed to develop the Crew Exploration Vehicle and launch systems by 2012.”

17. FY06 Budget Bill • Conference Report made some revisions to Administration’s request for NASA Earth Science FY06 Funding • Add $30M for Glory mission (was ‘instrument build only’) • Add $15M for Earth Science applications program for competitively selected projects • Earth Science will be impacted by a number of changes to Science, Aeronautics, and Technology account, including • $90M general reduction • $26M reduction in corporate G&A • Large number of items of Congressional direction

18. Overview of Talk • NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content • NASA Earth Science Connections • Budget Update • Strategy Development • Program Evolution and Issues • Summary

19. Strategy Development • NASA Strategic Roadmaps (Winter-Spring, 2005) • Completion Accelerated; Use Different from originally anticipated • NRC Decadal Survey • Interim Report • Forthcoming Final Report (late fall, 2006) • Reconstitution of Advisory Committee Structure • Creation of Working Groups • Foundation Roadmapping

20. NRC Decadal Survey • At request of NASA and NOAA, NRC is carrying out “decadal survey” under title “Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future” • “The Space Studies Board, in consultation with other units of the NRC, will lead a study to generate consensus recommendations from the Earth and environmental science and applications community regarding a systems approach to space-based and ancillary observations that encompasses the research programs of NASA and the related operational programs of NOAA.” [Note: USGS added] • Key goals of study: • Articulate priorities for Earth system science and the space-based observational approaches to address those priorities. • Establish individual plans and priorities within the sub-disciplines of the Earth sciences as well as an integrated vision and plan for the Earth sciences as a whole. • Schedule Phase 1 short report -- released Spring 2005 Phase 2 complete report -- Late 2006

21. NRC Decadal Survey, cont. • Report made strong case for importance of NASA Earth science to nation and quality of program • Report called attention to cancellation, delays, and uncertainty in program, especially in relation to major missions (e.g., GIFTS, Glory, NPP, OSTM, LDCM, OVWM), and need for opportunity for future missions • Report noted importance of technology investments in key areas (Wind Lidar, Wide Swath Altimetry, InSAR) • Report emphasized importance of vigorous research and analysis program • Subsequent Discussions emphasize need for articulating societal drivers for scientific research • Structure of report reflects this emphasis

22. NRC Decadal Survey, cont • Table 3.1 Canceled, Descoped, or Delayed Earth Observation Missions • Mission Measurement Societal Benefit Status • Global Precipitation Precipitation Reduced vulnerability to floods and Delayed • Measurement (GPM) droughts; improved capability to • manage water resources in arid • regions; improved forecasts of • hurricanes • Atmospheric Soundings Temperature and Protection of life and property Canceled • From Geostationary Orbit water vapor through improved weather forecasts • (GIFTS - Geostationary and severe storm warning • Imaging Fourier • Transform Spectrometer) Wind speed and Improved severe weather warnings Canceled • Ocean Vector Winds direction near the to ships at sea; improved crop • (active scatterometer ocean surface planning and yields through better • Follow-on to QuikSCAT) predictions of El Niño • Landsat Data Continuity- Land cover Monitoring of deforestation; Canceled • Bridge mission (to fill gap identification of mineral resources; • Between Landsat-7 and tracking of the conversion of • NPOESS) agricultural land to other uses • Glory Optical properties of Improved scientific understanding of Canceled • aerosols; solar factors that force climate change • irradiance • Wide Swath Ocean Sea level in two Monitoring of coastal currents, eddies, Instrument • Altimeter (on the Ocean dimensions and tides, all of which affect fisheries, canceled - • Surface Topography navigation, and ocean climate descope of an • Mission; OSTM) enhanced OSTM

23. Reconstituting Advisory Committee Structure • Historical Earth Science and Applications Advisory Committee (ESSAAC) was to be merged with Sun-Earth Connection Advisory Subcommittee (SECAS) into a single Earth-Sun System Subcommittee (ES3); joint meetings held • NASA Advisory Council (NAC) expired and subcommittees expired with them • Agency is in process of reconstituting NAC and likely having five subcommittees (4 divisions assuming Earth and Sun split, plus 1 for planetary protection) • Process is underway to identify candidates for an Earth Science Subcommittee (ESS) • Most likely establish working groups under ESS led by members - like space science MOWGs, organized around focus areas

24. Foundation Roadmapping • Earth Science looking to follow lead from Space Science and develop “foundation roadmaps” • These are “far-looking” plans, with special focus on identifying candidate space missions, with some engineering analysis done to help scope out • For earth science, a particular challenge is to understand how to balance scope of missions - • Large, multi-goal missions/instruments (e.g., Terra, Aqua) • Small, focused missions (e.g., ESSPs) • Community involvement is needed; typically would report through advisory subcommittee • Scope would go beyond NRC Decadal Survey and be specific to NASA

25. Overview of Talk • NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content • NASA Earth Science Connections • Budget Update • Strategy Development • Program Evolution and Issues • Summary

26. Program Content and Related Issues • Evolution and Associated Issues in Flight Program • Suborbital Science • EOSDIS Evolution • Computing, Modeling, and Data Assimilation • Implementation Activities

27. Program Content and Related Issues • Evolution and Associated Issues in Flight Program • First Series EOS spacecraft complete with launch of Aura (7/04) • Senior Review held to deal with extended operations for missions beyond primary lifetime and subsequent terminations • Cloudsat/CALIPSO launch delayed - NET 2/06 • 2 more ESSP missions successfully completed mission confirmation review • OCO - carbon dioxide column • Aquarius - Sea Surface Salinity (with Argentina) • Hydros backup mission possibility ended • Glory mission passed confirmation review • NPOESS - NPP delays (min., 18 months, poss. 30) risk discontinuity with Aqua (note move to PM), further delays to C1, with major programmatic uncertainty (e.g., Nunn-McCurdy threshold being met) • Landsat - EOP reversed decision (12/23/05) to fly on NPOESS and directed free flyer, but note risk to continuity

28. Earth Science Senior Review • Earth Science followed Space Science process of having “senior review” for looking at mission extension for operating missions • First one considered 12 missions that would be beyond prime phase in FY06-07 • Results rank-ordered largely in 3 groups: • Highest - Terra, GRACE, Jason • Middle - QuikScat, ACRIM, TRMM, GPS Constellation, TOMS, GRACE • Lowest - ERBS, SAGE III, UARS • Try to accommodate requested funding profiles for all but lowest category • UARS and ERBS terminated • Reduce scope of SAGE III science effort • Repeat process every 2 years • Alternate with review process for data products

29. Transition from Research to Operations Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation NCEP Imaging and Sounding SeaWiFS Terra Aqua NPOESS NPP Solar Irradiance, Ozone, and Aerosols In operation SORCE ACRIMsat Glory NPOESS Under Development TOMS AURA NPOESS In Formulation Observation Tech Development Atmospheric Constituent Profiles UARS AURA TBD * Completing instrument - flight opportunity, if any, TBD Ocean Surface Topography Jason OSTM NOAA/EUMETSAT Land Cover/Land Use Change In work Landsat 7 LDCM GIFTS* GOES-R Tech Tropo Winds TBD Data Assim Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center NWS NASA & NOAA jointly funding NRC studies on improving transition

30. Sub-Orbital Science • In past, budget process led to reduction of funds for sub-orbital science, with emphasis on accelerating incorporation of UAVs into earth science program • UAV science campaigns had limited impact • Partnership with Aeronautics Mission Directorate on UAVs is being reviewed in context of their changes • DC-8 has been transferred to U. North Dakota for operation • Planned grounding of ER-2s deferred, but resource base limited • Note use of ER-2 in TCSP (summer, 2005) and plans for 2007 • Recent investment in WB-57 upgrades • Gets significant use, esp. for Aura/planned A-train studies • Instruments and Platforms used in Katrina response

31. Evolution of EOSDIS Elements - Vision for 2015 • NASA’s research communities have access to all EOS data through services at least as rich as any contemporary science information system, for example: • Data access latency is no longer an impediment • The physical location of data storage is irrelevant • Finding data is based on common search engines (e.g., Google2015) • Services are primarily invoked by machine-to-machine interfaces • Multiple data and metadata streams can be seamlessly combined • Custom processing (e.g., subsetting, averaging, reprojection) provides only the data needed, the way they are needed • Best practice standard interfaces and protocols are universally employed • The research and value-added provider communities use EOS data interoperably with any other relevant data sources (e.g., NPOESS, METOP, GPM, numerical models, in situ systems) and systems (e.g., Global Earth Observation System of Systems). • The EOS archive holdings are regularly peer reviewed for scientific merit: • Procedures for such reviews have been developed and tested over a decade • Derived products that are not deemed scientifically useful are phased out.

32. Computing • NASA is capitalizing on its recent investment in Project Columbia at Ames Research Center • NASA did solicitation of computing opportunities and allocated time on that basis • NASA now looking to better integrate availability of computing resources into proposal evaluation process • NASA considering longer-term approach to computing - both for high end research (ARC) and production (GSFC) • Resource requirements to keep NASA at frontier of computing capability are significant - and continuing

33. Integrating Earth Science in Directorate NRA • ROSES has numerous elements, with opening dates throughout the year, organized by division (Earth-Sun integrated) • Appendix  Science Program Element   NOI/Step-1* Due  Proposal Due • A.2 Land Cover/Land Use Change 4/28/2005  8/1/2005  • A.3 Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazônia 3/10/2005 4/26/2005 • A.4Terrestrial Ecology and Biodiversity 7/19/2005 9/12/2005 • A.5 Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry 5/2/2005 7/1/2005 • A.6 North American Carbon Program 10/14/2005 12/15/2005 • A.7 Remote Sensing Science for Carbon and Climate 6/3/2005 8/3/2005 • A.8 Ocean Vector Winds Science Team 4/1/2005 6/1/2005 • A.9 Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and Cryosat 3/25/2005 5/25/2005 • A.10CloudSat and CALIPSO Science Team … 5/2/2005 7/1/2005 • A.11 NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study10/5/200511/16/2005 • A.12 Terrestrial Hydrology11/9/20051/18/2006 • A.14 Atmospheric Composition 4/29/2005 6/15/2005 • A.15 Earth Surface and Interior 5/27/2005 7/27/2005 • A.16 Solar and Heliospheric Physics 12/9/2005 2/10/2006 • A.17 Geospace Science 5/20/2005 7/22/2005 • A.21Living with a Star Targeted Research and Technology 7/8/2005 9/9/2005 • A.24 Decision Support through Earth-Sun Science Res. Results 7/20/200511/22/2005 • A.25 New Investigator Program in Earth-Sun System Science 6/30/2005 8/31/2005 • A.26 Adv. Collab. Connections for Earth-Sun System Sci.3/14/2005 5/20/2005 • A.28 Advanced Component Technology 2/28/2005 4/29/2005 • A.29 Virtual Observatories for Solar and Space Physics Data8/29/200510/31/2005 • A.30 LWS TRT: NASA/NSF Partnership for Collab.Space Weather Mod. 10/14/200512/2/2005 • Note: elements with no proposals requested in CY2005 not shown!

34. Selection Statistics for From FY04 NRAs • Participation in Research Program Involves Significant Institutional Mix • Distribution of PIs from 2004 Earth Science Research Opportunities: • # Rec #Sel. NASA Univ. OG P/NP • Carbon Cycle Science  301 59 8 37 5 2 • Earth System Sci. Fellowships 209 57 0 55 0 2 • Oceans and Ice  293 53 23 18 3 8 • Tropical Cloud Systems and • Processes  105* 25 9 11 5 0 • NASA Energy and Water Cycle 101 33 9 19 1 4 • Integrated Solutions for K-16 • and Informal Educ. 147 31 4 26 0 3 • Earth Science Outreach • Investigator Awards   24 2 0 0 0 2 • Modeling, Analysis and Prediction - • Climate Variability and Change  225 65 27 31 5 2 • Instrument Incubator Program  82 23 15 6 0 3 • Decision Support CAN - • Applied Sciences 172 34 6 13 8 7 • * Does not include proposals submitted to radiation science part that was not carried out

35. Overview of Talk • NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content • NASA Earth Science Connections • Budget Update • Strategy Development • Program Evolution and Issues • Summary

36. Summary • NASA’s Earth Science program has a critical role in implementing three major Presidential directives in addition to the VSE: • Climate Change Research via CCSP • Global Earth Observation via IEOS & GEOSS • Ocean Action Plan • NASA’s commitment to climate research and CCSP remains strong in the midst of its other priorities in this challenging budget environment • Implementation of program is being carried out in evolutionary way, including adopting best practices from former Space Science • While Agency and Inter-agency planning efforts continue (as they must), we eagerly await the final report of the NRC Decadal Survey for community guidance on scientific and observing priorities