‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA

1. ‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA Coleen Vogel REVAMP, Wits University

2. Africa A mixed picture of uncertainty and agreement. Regions of low consensus related in part to spatial positioning of boundaries of the climate processes Average ΔT° A1B: 1980–1999 and 2080–2099 Average Δpreip (%) IPCC AR4: Fig 11.2

4. Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence ofother stresses. (Ch 9)

5. Some synergies between DRR and CCA • DRR National priority + local with institutional basis for implementation; • Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance EW; • Use knowledge etc. to build resilience; • Reduce underlying risk factors; • Strengthen disaster preparedness.

6. CCA – Bali Action Plan • Risk assessments – national risk information, socio-econ data on vulnerability and capacity. • Early Warning Systems – risk knowledge, monitoring and warning and dissemination and communication, response. • Risk reduction plans - integrated plans and programmes for sectors and areas of development (Source: Informal Task Force, Inter-agency Standing Committee + ISDR)

7. Frameworks DRR and Vulnerability assessments used in CC/variability coping/adaptation assessments

8. Double Structure of Vulnerability (After Bohle, 2001) Human Ecological Perspectives Entitlement Theory The “external” side of vulnerability EXPOSURE Political Economy Approaches THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE OF VULNERABILITY Crisis and Conflict Theory COPING The “internal” side of vulnerability Models of Access to Assets Action Theory Approaches

9. Disaster Management and Vulnerability Exposure to Hazards and Threats LACK OF ACCESS Health Services Credit Information Etc… LACK OF RESOURCES Income Assets Social Support Etc… Increased Vulnerability Reduced Capacity to Cope and Recover (After Wisner)

10. RISK ASSESSMENTS: some methods

11. A possible approach e.g. Sustainable Livelihoods (Carney, 1999 and others)

13. Previous assessments – strategies and lessons • Coping (adaptation????) implies a range of strategies – several assessments show few exist – most involve modifications of existing food sourcing and other livelihood patterns. • Strategies may be harmful– sale of livestock may erode subsistence bases. • Most involve selling their futures to survive. • Strategies not static and what worked in one climate shock/stress period may not work in others – need for constant updating.

14. Household Economy and Livelihoods (Sawdon, RHVP) + + = HAZARD OUTCOME COPING BASELINE

15. 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0 ……….111% of last year ………………..59% of last year ……………….138% of last year ……………98% of last year Purchase Gifts Wild food Labor for food Other crops Maize Millet Sorghum PROBLEM SPECIFICATION Projected crop production this year compared to last year This graph shows how poor households in the Siavanga Valley obtain food and cash % of minimum annual food requirements 1999/2000 2000/2001 The SiavongaValley in Zambia experienced poor rainfall during the 2000/2001 cropping season leading to a 40% drop in maize production compared to previous year. Government plans to provide food assistance. HAZARD/SHOCK FACTORS: VULNERABILITY OF AFFECTED HOUSEHOLDS: The vulnerability assessment shows that maize is not an important source of food in the Siavonga Valley. Therefore a 40% drop in maize production alone, will not put households at risk of food insecurity. RISK OF FOOD INSECURITY: A food aid intervention in this situation is not appropriate (after Fews, 2003) APPROPRIATE RESPONSE:

16. Moving to towards quantification and costing? Some disaster loss inventories

17. Severe weather events - costly for W. Cape * Not adjusted for construction inflation

18. African context • What ‘drives’ change and enhances risks? • How are we COPING currently? • What makes us RESILIENT to change? • Can we ‘ramp’ these activities up – MOVE from COPING to ADAPTATION? • Can we begin to draw together cases from sectors (water, health, energy) or types of interventions (humanitarian) that help us to begin to say something about coping and adaptation?

19. Decision-making in uncertainty – improved EWS

20. Alternative EWS ways of thinking (Source: Heads Up! EWS for climate water and weather, M. Glantz, 2007).

21. Producer focus Focus on communication as key issue (e.g. probabilistic and deterministic forecasts) Some focus on user environment Some focus on how end-users manage risk Some focus on how end-users cope and adapt to changing environments. User focus Focus on user environment Focus on ‘widening the discourse’ Focus on obtaining data from end users about their risk environment Serious reflection on ‘institutional issues’, ‘degree of fit’ (e.g. Orlove and Tosteson, 1999). Alternative Typologies of Forecast Systems (adapted from Vogel and O’Brien, 2003) Conventional Alternative Approach

22. Forecasts – moving to integration? Institutional perspective (Policies and state apparatus) Understanding clients and their ‘risk management’ strategies Understanding the user’s risk environment ‘User perspective’ Forecasters’ perspective Do I understand the info requirements of the end user? In what ‘risk environment’ is my client based? How can we create a dialogue to collectively reduce risk? • Possible outcomes • Enhanced risk-reduction measures • Integrated plans of action • Design of ‘more appropriate institutional’ processes for effective use of forecasts.

23. December 2004 first quarterly climate preparedness meeting, Suid Bokkeveld,South Africa ‘is the product less important than the process?’ Heiveld Co-op senior member describing August – December 2004 climate and agriculture conditions; and leading discussion about coming quarterly & longer term strategies. Discussion follows presentation and critique of updated seasonal forecast, and of the agricultural advisory (both national scale products; here being evaluated and discussed at the sub-district scale). (source: Archer, E.R.M., Oettlé, N.M., Louw, R)

25. Settlement Committee Establishing Institutional Platforms Courses and Training BOUNDARY ORGANISATIONS ‘DEVELOPMENT’ ‘GOVERNMENT’ ‘ACTION-BASED’ Connect platforms to ongoing development activities Community-Based Climate Risk Management Plans

26. Issues for consideration • Risk assessment: How can we integrate risk assessment with planning and other ongoing assessments? Enhanced sustainability of VAs. • Early Warning: Can we say more about climate variability? In Africa living with variability key priority. ENSO, rain days, inter and intra-seasonal rainfall; seasonal and decadal assessments….etc. • Resilience and capacity: Can we begin to show costs and tradeoffs between and for linking climate change, adaptation and development? Doing MORE with LESS!

27. Acknowledgements • Gary Sawdon, RHVP. • Save the Children + various others. • Ailsa Holloway, DiMP, UCT. • IPCC Africa chapter authors, WG II, 2007. • Emma Archer, CSIR.