Reforming China’s Statistical System: Opportunities and Challenges

1. Reforming China’s Statistical System: Opportunities and Challenges Datuk R. Chander May 2004

2. The Legacy of the Past • Statistical system geared to collecting data to meet the needs of central planning; • Statistical system served data needs of Government in planning, implementing and monitoring development; • The emphasis on target setting and plan fulfillment; the limited role of prices • The MPS framework and use of comprehensive reporting as a key statistical tool • A hierarchical organizational structure May 2004

3. Features of the System • Isolation from the Rest of the World • Limited role of global standards • Secrecy and absence of data dissemination • An organizational structure patterned on the USSR – the pyramid and compartmentalization May 2004

4. Decades Two of Reforms • Investment in Physical Infrastructure • Human Resource Development • Adoption of International Standards • Extension of Data Gathering • Maximization of Technical Cooperation with partners • A New Legal Framework • Greater transparency and dissemination May 2004

5. What Has Changed? • The private sector’s new role in a market economy; • The Government’s new role: I) creating the macro economic conditions for growth; I) poverty eradication and providing safety nets III) incentives for private sector development • Demand for new data May 2004

6. Changed Emphasis • More extensive economic data –national accounts, capital flows; prices; • Emphasis on poverty and social up liftment; • Greater dissemination; a more transparent approach; • Application of IT; gradual adoption of some international standards May 2004

7. The System Remains in Transition • Partial moves towards reform • China has yet to fully adopt international standards and classifications • Continued reliance on “complete” reporting • Reform of basic structure of the system has not been attempted May 2004

8. Issues And Challenges • Incomplete reforms • A larger work load • Problems of non-response and misreporting – data quality and credibility • Organizational rigidities linked with “mirror” arrangements and compartmentalization • Tensions with users – old vs. new requirements • A question of culture: data revisions; faith in surveys May 2004

9. A New Policy Vision • The statistical system should also be improved to enhance monitoring of economic performance and facilitate information sharing among economic regulation departments of the Government.” Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee Session. Oct 14th 2003 May 2004

10. The Reform Agenda • Acknowledgement of weaknesses & needed reforms • Reforms to cover methodology; institutional reforms including the integration of the three survey organizations; NBS internal structure; reassessment of relationships between components of the statistical system; improvement of data quality. • Moving away from complete reporting towards use of sample surveys; • Greater client orientation. May 2004

11. The Approach to Reforms • Cautious approach outlined by NBS • Changing the culture – engaging stakeholders – users, staff, all levels of the system; • Are the reforms adequate? • Absence of an over-arching design • The cost implications not quantified May 2004

12. Reforms: From Policy To Action • Accelerating Reforms: Need for a detailed strategy; • Developing a comprehensive Statistical Master Plan to guide change and serve as a business plan • SMP objectives: • Defining a relevant work program • Reduced respondent burden • Effective statistical information management and data sharing • Comprehensive quality management systems • Adequately trained and motivated staff • An efficient, well managed, flexible organization • Redefining functions of the component parts of the statistical system May 2004

13. Key Contents of SMP • The World Bank’s Guidelines for preparation of SMP under its STATCAP initiative • The Five Pillars of a SMP: • Organizational Development and Restructuring • Investing in Physical Infrastructure • Investing in Statistical Infrastructure • Data Development and A Core Work Program • Data Management & Dissemination : Role of IT May 2004

14. Organizational Development and Restructuring • Streamlining the organizational set-up of China’s statistical system • `Reallocation of responsibilities National Advisory Council Restructuring of NBS and PBS • Building of institutional management systems • The sub-components for establishing modern management systems: • Financial Management and Planning • Human Resources Management • Document Management System • Quality Management • Strengthening of the system of staff training and re-training • Users’ education strategy- Improvement of relations with respondents and data providers • Revising the Statistical Law May 2004

15. A New Structure for NBS • A new organizational structure grouping functions : Matrix Management: functional orientation • Statistical infrastructure: Sampling frames, business registers and classifications. • Methodology and Design: Sample design, experimentation and questionnaire design. • Field Operations: Data collection: a national survey network • IT Function: Development and management of institutional databases and metadata bases; technical support to operating divisions. • Operating Departments: Household surveys, enterprise surveys; price statistics national accounts; external trade and financial statistics; social statistics; demography. • Data dissemination and client support. • Management Services: Strategic planning; Finance and Budgeting; Human resource management including training; External Relations. • Restructuring PBS May 2004

16. A Business Plan • A relevant work program • Reduced respondent burden • Effective statistical information • Comprehensive quality management systems • Adequately trained and motivated staff • An efficient, well managed, flexible organization May 2004

17. Investing in Physical Infrastructure • Much achieved • Further investment in IT; particularly in software and networks • Set up amortization fund to finance future replacement of hardware May 2004

18. Investing in Statistical Infrastructure • 1 Development of Household Sample Frame based on area units • 2 Enterprise Register • 3 International Standards & Classifications: link to comparability, global data quality (GDDS) • 4 Support for user Interactions : role of user groups • 5 Review of Statistical Legislation & revisions May 2004

19. Data Development : A Core Work Program • The focal point of the data collection modernization is (i) development and implementation of multi-purpose sample household surveys; (ii) integration of the existing enterprise surveys; (iii) revision of data collection periodicity; and (iv) introduction of sampling methods into enterprise surveys. Streamlining of current data collection processes by: • reorientation of data content towards topical issues; • reduction in the length of questionnaires and improvements in their design; • reduction in sample sizes through increased use of stratified sampling procedures; • consolidation of requests for annual data into a single integrated annual survey; • consolidation of requests for sub-annual data into a single integrated survey; • These efforts are likely to enable the reallocation of resources and permit the collection of new data sets and reduce respondent burden and result in improved response rates May 2004

20. A Framework for Data Development • The 1993 SNA as an organizing framework for collection of economic data; new classifications • Integration and harmonization; • The institutional sectoring in the SNA as a tool for sharing responsibilities between parts of the system; May 2004

21. The Institutional Sectors May 2004

22. Key Surveys • Integrated Business Enterprise Survey: Based on Commercial Accounting Concepts • Household Income and Expenditure Survey • A monthly Production Survey • Price Statistics • Quarterly Labor Force Survey • Business Expectations Survey • Compilation of Leading Indicators • Indices of Production May 2004

23. The National Accounts • A new orientation based on 1993 SNA: NBS role: stepping back from the “Hybrid” system • Supply & Use Accounts • Institutional Sector Accounts • Quarterly National Accounts • Regional National Accounts: NBS vs. PBS May 2004

24. Social Statistics & Poverty • The Millennium Development Goals as a framework • The use of administrative data and HIES • The importance of partnership: Ministries, Provinces etc., • Calculating Poverty Lines; the need for adopting international guidelines. • Analysis of Poverty: the tools and data sources May 2004

25. Managing Data & Dissemination : Role of IT • Changing the culture: data sharing; publication of revisions; reaching out to users • Clear policies and standards concerning access • Promoting confidence in data integrity via meta data • Networks May 2004

26. Managing Change • The next step: Prepare a SMP • Implementation of SMP will lead to: • Better Coordinated Statistical System • Effective Resources use • Greater Client focus and more policy relevant data • Safe guard statistical integrity • Create long term sustainable capacity building May 2004

27. Engaging International Partners • SMP would help identify areas for cooperation • Cooperation should extend beyond knowledge transfer to application of knowledge • Need for greater donor coordination • Donors need to look at the overall evolution of the statistical system. May 2004