Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy 2050 for Kazakhstan

1. Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy 2050 for Kazakhstan Siddharth Pathak Director of Partnerships – 2050 Pathways Platform 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM

2. ‘Long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies’ under the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change (LT-LEDS) • Paris Agreement - Article 4.19: All Parties should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, mindful of Article 2 taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances. 1/CP 21, paragraph 35, invited Parties to communicate, by 2020, to the secretariat mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 19, of the Agreement. • An ‘invitation’: no specific guidance on content of LT-LEDS. Experience shows a great variety in the type of LT-LEDS document submitted to the UN Climate Change Secretariat. • Not subject to specific review by Parties. • G20: Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth (2017) - …. a unique opportunity for national, country-specific approaches, guiding short(er) term planning and policy making in relevant sectors, mainstreaming climate action with efforts to promote inclusive economic … We recognise that long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies may inform our investments, inter alia in infrastructure. • UN Secretary General’s Summit 2019 (Sept. New York) - Announcements of countries to submit long-term strategies with concrete steps and interim targets towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

3. 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION

4. Typology of long-term strategies (LT-LEDS) Explore the long-term Model-based scenarios Test technology options Initiate a domestic discussion Declaration of intent Indicate overall ambition Identify sectoral challenges and opportunities Opens a domestic discussion Fiji France RMI US Canada Mexico Czech R. Ukraine EU International LT pledge State a LT emission goal ‘Back-cast’ sectoral emissions pathway Detail a policy roadmap Set in broader socio-economic context Japan Germany UK Costa Rica Benin Note: Countries in italics have not submitted their LT-LEDS document yet 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION

5. Long-term Strategies: State of Play Long-term strategies: current state of play 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION

6. Process for a robust long-term strategy

7. Long-term strategies – from long-term ambition to near-term changes Business-as-usual NDC1 GHG EMISSIONS NDC2 Long-term low-carbon pathway Back-casting emissions In accordance with Art. 4.1 of the Paris Agreement TIME 2040 2050 2030

8. Ideally, a long-term low-emission development strategy will… (1) • Answer the question: how will the decarbonisation and climate-resilience agenda support the country’s socio-economic objectives (incl. SDGs)? • LT-LEDS to be informed by sectoral and macro policy plans • Identify key development indicators, e.g. Desired Quality of Life indices? • Anticipate adaptation and resilience needs (even 1.5-2°C implies CC impacts) • Be an inclusive, deliberative process (involving States, business, civil society) • Ensure ‘buy-in’ and capacity to act on the strategy • Lead a comprehensive analysis of economic and social benefits (stable economic development, lower local pollution, resilient agriculture) • Expose trade-offs and long-term problems to be avoided • Look beyond borders: implications of global shift to low-carbon economy – mid- and long-term scenarios reflecting fossil-fuel sectoral changes 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION

9. Ideally, a long-term low-emission development strategy will… (2) • Link back to near-term policy, infrastructure choices, and broader reforms for ‘alignment’ of climate protection and development • Avoid incremental approach to long-term emission objectives, i.e. adopt a back-casting approach from long-term ambition to near-term choices  • Set a process in motion: include a regularreview of the LT-LEDS to: • Clear earlier uncertainties: future economic growth, efficiency and acceptability of policies, technology costs • Integrate emerging transition issues (jobs in affected communities, new infrastructure needs and regulatory frameworks, etc) 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION

10. Why do LT – LEDS ? INTERNATIONAL • LTS part of Paris Agreement (Art. 4.19) • Global contribution and responsiblity LEVERAGING OPPORTUNITY • Co Benefits (Health, Environmental) • Economic opportunities • Attracting green finance • Competitive advantage • Early mover technological innovation MITIGATING RISKS • Economic Vulnerability • Negative feedback in development goals particularly through climate impacts • Geo-Physical Vulnerablity 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION

11. Reference documents on Long-term low-emissions development strategies LTS submitted to UNFCCC https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies Resource websites https://www.2050pathways.org. http://oe.cd/G20climate https://www.wri.org/climate/long-term-strategies https://climateanalytics.org/media/climateanalytics_ipcc-lt-leds_report_april_2019.pdf 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION

12. “Having a good plan is not a sufficient condition for success. • But not having one is always a recipe for failure”