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Towards Disaster Resilience in Pakistan: A Paradigm Shift for Improved Quality of Life (Part 1: Earthquakes)

This article discusses the urgent need for a paradigm shift towards disaster resilience in Pakistan, focusing on the devastating impacts and lessons learned from past earthquakes. It emphasizes the integration of past experiences into knowledge, building professional and technical capacity, and decision-making for a national paradigm shift.

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Towards Disaster Resilience in Pakistan: A Paradigm Shift for Improved Quality of Life (Part 1: Earthquakes)

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  1. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCEIN PAKISTANA Paradigm Shift That Will Improve the Quality of Life in PakistanPart 1: Earthquakes Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

  2. Disaster resilience, which is the capacity of a country to rebound quickly after the socioeconomic impacts of a disaster, requires decision-making for a national paradigm shift from the status quo.

  3. WHEN A COUNTRY IS DISASTER PRONE, CONTINUATION OF THE STATUS QUO Will result in new and more complex HEALTH PROBLEMS WILL result in unnecessary DEATHS AND INJURIES WILL result in longer and more costly RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

  4. GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • TSUNAMIS • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • LANDSLIDES • WILDFIRES

  5. WHAT DO WE KNOW? • Disaster resilience has become an urgent global goal in the 21st century as many Nations are experiencing disasters after a natural hazard strikes, and learning that their communities, institutions, and people do NOT yet have the capacity to be disaster resilient.

  6. PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS • FLOODS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • LANDSLIDES

  7. MULTIPLE DISASTER THREATS • Pakistan faces increasing threats each year from floods and earthquakes, some of which have triggered notable disasters in recent years, and - - - • Could do it again.

  8. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN • Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge • Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity • Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Disaster Resilience

  9. NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a Nation’s “Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine,” its educational institutions at all levels, and its electronic and print media that provide public information

  10. NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a Nation’s “decision-makers,” (i.e., its political leaders, stakeholders, and leading professionals) who have a basis for deciding on the nature and scope of a national paradigm shift

  11. Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge (i.e., everything we know or think we know about Pakistan’s earthquakes)

  12. PART 1: Earthquakes 1909,1929,1931, 1935, 1945, 1974, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013

  13. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE- Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Change

  14. KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE 8:52 AM SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2005 M7.6 10 KM (6 MI) DEPTH 78,000 DEAD IN PAKISTAN COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS HOMELESS

  15. A NOTABLE HISTORIC EARTHQUAKE DISASTER • KASHMIR – OCTOBER 8, 2005; M7.6; 8:52 am; 78,000 Deaths; 138,000 Injured; Hundreds of Thousands Homeless; $4.5 Billion in Economic Losses. • Destroyed more than 600,000 homes, 6,500 schools, 800 clinics and hospitals, and more than 3,700 miles (5,900 kilometers) of road.

  16. SOURCE ZONE: THE INDO-AUSTRIALIA PLATE COLLIDING WITH EURASIAN PLATE

  17. OCCURRENCE • The earthquake occurred in the Main Boundary Thrust Zone (MBTZ), which runs along the Himalayan Arc for about 2,500 km.

  18. PAKISTAN: START PREPARING FOR REALITY • Experts believe that the October 8th 2005 earthquake released only about 10 percent of the accumu-lated strain energy, - - - • So, at least two generations of Pakistanis are still at risk.

  19. FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS • The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the magnitude and shallow depth of the quake, and 5) the poor soils and mountainous terrain of the region.

  20. TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS • The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by two other factors that happened gradually over time: • 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and lifeline systems, and • 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the deaths, injuries, and socioeconomic losses in a disaster.

  21. TIMING OF THE EARTHQUAKE • It occurred 19 km (12 mi) from Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani administered Kashmir. • It happened at 8:52 am on a Saturday morning during the month of Ramadan while students were in school and adults were taking a nap at home after their pre-dawn meal.

  22. COLLAPSED BUILDINGS • Within a few minutes, more than 32,000 buildings in Pakistan collapsed during the strong ground shaking, • Entire towns and villages were partially to totally destroyed, and • Destructive landslides were triggered.

  23. INFRASTRUCTURE and COMMUNICATION • Within minutes, - - - • Most of the transportation infrastructure was damaged or lost its function as a result of the ground shaking and landslides, and communication systems were disrupted or became inoperative.

  24. MUZARAFFABAD: 19 KM FROM EPICENTER

  25. MUZAFFARABAD: LANDSLIDE 19 KM FROM EPICENTER

  26. ISLAMABAD: 105 KM FROM EPICENTER

  27. NOTE: ISLAMABAD: 2015 (almost 10 years after the quake)

  28. BALAKOT

  29. BALAKOT

  30. VICTIMS BURIED IN THE RUBBLE • Many students were buried in the rubble of collapsed school buildings and could not be rescued in time. • Others were trapped in the rubble of their collapsed homes and apartment buildings and could not be rescued.

  31. ISLAMABAD

  32. ISLAMABAD

  33. ISLAMAAD

  34. COMPLEX EMERGENCY RESPONSE • Hospitals and rescue services, including police and armed forces, had to overcome huge obstacles such as limited resoruces, collapsed facilities, damage to transportation systems, and disrupted communications to meet the urgent needs of thousands of injured and homeless survivors.

  35. RESPONSIVE IN SPITE OF THE PROBLEMS • The Pakistan government and the people were very responsive to the situation.  • The World Health Organization (WHO) provided specialized assistance to the Pakistanis. 

  36. ISLAMABAD

  37. RELIEF, AFTERSHOCKS, AND LANDSLIDES • The relief effort to supply medical attention, food, clean water. and temporary shelter for the survivors was hampered by aftershocks, as well as by landslides and falling rocks, making parts of the region inaccessible for several days.

  38. MUZAFFARABAD

  39. MUZAFFARABAD

  40. MUZAFFARABAD ISLAMABAD BALAKOT

  41. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION • Five crossing points were opened on the line of control (LoC), between India and Pakistan, to facilitate the flow of humanitarian and medical aid to the survivors.

  42. MUZAFFARABAD FOOD LINE

  43. FOOD DISTRIBUTION WAS AMAZINGLY EFFICIENT

  44. FOOD DISTRIBUTION

  45. INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE • Nearly $7 billion in international aid was pledged by many different countries to facilitate one of the largest relief and reconstruction operations in modern times.

  46. Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity in Pakistan to Minimize Likely Impacts in the Next Earthquake Disaster

  47. This is a task that is best per-formed by Pakistani “Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine,” existing educational institutions, and electronic and print media focused on public information for all sectors

  48. 2005-12-2015: USING THE PAST TO PREPARE FOR TOMORROW

  49. CAUSES OF RISK INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP CASE HISTORIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

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