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Ted Gordon The Millennium Project World Federation of United Nations Associations

Slide 1. Frontiers of Futures Research On the Inauguration of the Graduate Diploma on Foresight and Strategy Simon Bolivar University January 25, 2008. Ted Gordon The Millennium Project World Federation of United Nations Associations.

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Ted Gordon The Millennium Project World Federation of United Nations Associations

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  1. Slide 1 Frontiers of Futures Research On the Inauguration of the Graduate Diploma on Foresight and Strategy Simon Bolivar University January 25, 2008 Ted Gordon The Millennium Project World Federation of United Nations Associations

  2. 2. The Future Is DynamicTwenty five years ago there was no: • Internet, World Wide Web, cell phones • European Union, World Trade Organization • AIDS, genetic sequencing for drugs • Cloning, robots on Mars • NAFTA, globalization • Asymmetrical warfare • Many believed we would have nuclear WW III

  3. 3. Developments to look for in the next twenty five years • Acceleration of science and technology • Nano, bio, cogno, info (NBIC) • SIMAD • Energy: post oil peak transition • Understanding, enhancing mental capacity • Longevity • Power and shifting non-state political actors • Universal monitoring: who’s where • New moral issues: birth, death, sovereignty

  4. 4. S&T Acceleration • Technological synergies • Feedback of accomplishments • New instrumentation and analysis capacities • Globalization • What can slow it? Natural limits (e.g. energy) Catastrophe (e.g. SIMAD) Religion, culture Fear of the unknown

  5. 5. Technological Convergence: An atomic scale general purpose assembly machine could copy itself in a week; a billion in a year (Minsky) Atoms Atoms Cells Cells Bio Nano NBIC Tiny computers Smart chips Eyes and ears everywhere Implantable monitors Smart machines Tiny robots Swarm machine Cogno Info Bits Neurons Understanding mind, brain Brain prosthesis True AI Improved decisionmaking

  6. 6. Feedback of Accomplishments • Software development today takes 100 GB hard drive for granted • Essentially free international communications • The computer industry is now a trillion industry; hence more R&D funds • Discontinuous breakthroughs that spawn new capacities, disciplines (e.g. transistor, DNA molecule definition, fission)

  7. 7. Globalization of S&T • International standards • Internet • Global corporations bringing technology with them • Transnational students • Large scale cooperative projects (space station) • Collaboration among scientists, policymakers, companies • R&D leadership in China, India, South Korea Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG

  8. 8. New Instrumentation and Analysis Capacities • The scanning tunneling microscope • Rapid DNA sequencer • High energy collision machines • Cooperative computers: SETI • Internet; at the limit all knowledge available • High speeds transfer • Massive storage of errorless data • Nothing is forgotten • Hubble orbital telescope • Super-cooled IR orbiting observatory looks through dust

  9. 9. A Brief History of Futures Research • Advisors throughout history • WW II, Futuribles, Air Force studies, RAND, Hudson Institute, USSR Plans, IFF • Consulting firms, academic centers, OTA • The Millennium Project, foresight studies • Current: WFS, WFSF, MP, WAF, Journals, Books

  10. 10. Philosophical Assumptions • The future can be shaped by policy • There is a range of possible futures • Policy consequences can be systematically explored • Exact foreknowledge is not possible, but probabilities can be assessed • There is a component of the future that is unknowable

  11. 11. Purposes of Futures Research • To help understand what could be, what might be, and what ought to be. • To discover threats and opportunities. • To develop creative strategies • To evaluate proposed actions. • To create and share normative visions

  12. 12. Purposes of Futures Research • The value of futures research lies less in its forecasting accuracy, than in its use in identifying and assessing new possibilities • It’s purpose is to inform decisions

  13. 13. Bad Decisions Abound • Misinformation; sometimes decision makers lie (Gulf of Tonkin, the U-2 incident) • Uncertainty, risk aversion • Faith in low probability favorable outcomes • Failure to recognize the need for action • Bad luck, chance • Selfish interests, amorality, corruption • Xenophobia, geographic determinism

  14. 14. Non Linear Systems in Chaos • The whole may not be the sum of the parts • History is not a safe guide to the future • Very small differences bring big changes • Hidden attractors; self organization • If most important systems are chaotic, what does that mean for forecasting?

  15. 15. What Goes Into a Decision? • Three questions: • What is possible? • What is likely? • What is desirable? • Futures research helps with • Identifying goals • Assessing prospective policies • Quantifying risks • Futures research does not help much with • Reducing the unknowable • Psychological factors • Moral and ethical factors

  16. 16. A New Decision Science • Futures research; foresight; FTA • Intuition, imagination: experience, subtle clues • Psychology; personal utility functions • Balance of risks and rewards • Experiments and analogy • Understanding innate illogic of human thinking • Moral courage

  17. 17. Some Dangers on the Horizon • Privacy compromised: everyone tracked. • Confusion over what is real • Computers evolve; bio- WMD; new diseases • SIMAD, asymmetrical war, extremism, proliferation • Internet dangers: drug manufacture, etc. • Hunger to do what is right but effective decisions, leadership, and action seem missing Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG

  18. 18. Some Promises on the Horizon • Diminishing population growth, infant mortality • Control of AIDS, new resources • Improved wealth, education, health, and literacy • An ethic that reveres the future, promotes effective interventions • Global action against common dangers (e.g. SARS) • A new rationality Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG

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