Purpose

1. Voter preferences:- entirely policy driven or controlled by ideology?A study of the swing voter model

2. Purpose • In some way to explain the rise of the right-wing parties • See if the Swing voter model can be applied to different nations • Examine if a certain policy is affected by voter preferences (Health)

3. Theory Swing-voter model Dixit & Londregan; Scott Gelbach and Cox (core supporters) • Core supporter model: Political parties design policies to mobilize core supporters to the ballot box. • Swing voter model: Political parties adjust policies to attract voters who can be persuaded to shift from political party.

4. Data • WVS – E033 (self positioning ; left/right)- E036 (private vs state ownership)-E178(close to a particular party), limited in years. • CSES- B3028(Do you think of yourself as close to a party? • OECD Health data (Public health-spending in percent of total health-spending) • Gives us an idea of how large the private health sector is

5. Method • A cross section analysis (aggregated data) • See if there is any correlation between health-spending and the attitudes of the different data surveys • See if health spending is close to the preferences of voters who are not close to a political party

6. Hypothesis • H0: The size of private health care is controlled by the preferences of unsure voters • Ha: The size of private health care is controlled by the different parties’ ideological standpoint

7. Challenges • Justify for the connection between health-spending and voter preferences • Model? • General statistical issues • Cross sectional design disadvantages: • Increased chance of error • Difficult to rule out rival hypothesis • Cannot establish cause and effect