STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING & IMPLEMENTATION Adapted from Strategic Campaign Planning & Implementation. Ass

1. STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING & IMPLEMENTATION Adapted from Strategic Campaign Planning & Implementation. Assemblyman Joseph D. Morelle, Chair; Monroe County Democratic Committee. April 2008

2. Political Campaigns The Art of communicating effectively (persuasively) and efficiently with a given electorate in order to get enough of them to act in such a way (register, turn out, vote for, vote against, etc.) as to produce a victory for a question or candidate.

3. Campaigns Are Lost Because…….of a Failure to Communicate!

4. Campaign Plan: the Rational Framework vs. the W.A.G.

5. The Big Six 1. What are we going to do? 2. Why are we doing it? 3. When are we going to do it? 4. Where are we going to do it? 5. Who’s going to do it? 6. How much does it cost?

6. Develop Your Strategy How you will win the election? Define Your Goals • Persuading undecided • Keep support you have • Turnout your support • Disregard those who are not with you

7. Identify Your Message Delivery System (Tactics) • The candidate • Other people • Mail • Phones • Print • Display • Broadcast

8. Manage Scarce Campaign Resources • Time • Money • People

9. Who’s out there? - Demographics What’s their politics? - Targeting What do they care about? - Polling Who are the candidates? - Gold & Skeletons What’s the message? - Theme

10. Demographics: Know Your Audience – Who’s out there? • Polling • Voter Files • Census Data • Marketing Reports • Centers of Influence • Disciplined Observation

11. Targeting- Helps to……. • Determine Tendencies • Answer the question “where” to: • Arrange candidate appearances • Place Lawn Signs • Send Mail • Canvass • GOTV [get out the vote] 3. Directs scarce resources to target groups where there is the greatest potential for success: • Gender • Age • Voting Frequency • Registration • Other

12. Targeting • Targeting Task #1 – Determine Votes Needed to Win • Using like years, determine projected turnout • Multiply current registration by projected turnout percentage • Divide by 2 and add 1 = Votes Needed to Win Example: Total Registered Voters in District: 10,000 x Average Turnout: 53% = 5,300; 5,300  2 = 2,650 (+1) = 2,651 Votes Needed to win

13. Targeting • Targeting Task #2 – Find the Persuadable Voters Subgroups within the Target: • Blanks/Independents • Republican Females • Republican Seniors (over 65)

14. Targeting Targeting Task #3 – Develop the Target Group (Getting to 2,651) Total Enrollment: Reps 5,000 Dems 4,000 Blanks 1,000 Likely Dem Turnout multiplied by projected vote % = # of voters: 2,120 x 85% = 1,802 Likely Rep & Blank Turnout in top 15 persuadable EDs: 2,485 x 35% = 869 1,802 + 869 = 2,671

15. Issues & Attitudes - What do they care about? • Sources • News Stories • Letters to the Editor • Editorials • Media “polls” • Elected Officials • Communications • Opinions • Validated Observations • Candidate conversations with voters • Campaign conversations - e.g. “The big issue is taxes” Confirmations: • Attendance at budget hearing • School budget referenda • Tax Grievances

16. Candidate & Opposition Research Strengths & Weaknesses The Single Most Important Ingredient – Accuracy • Applies to you and your opponent • Unpopular votes and acts • Popular votes and acts • Hypocritical Voters

17. Candidate & Opposition Research Strengths & Weaknesses • Effective / Ineffective Performance • Attendance • Promised vs. Delivered • “Gots” List – what has been gotten by candidate? • Personal conduct that relates to public performance • Tax payments • Voting History • Business Practices

18. What Is The Message? Message = Theme • Message (Theme) • Strategy (Goals) • Tactics • Plan What Is The Theme? • Central Idea around which all communication revolves • The test you want voters to apply to the election • The rationale for your candidacy – why they should vote for you in this election • Implies why they should not vote for your opponent

19. Things That Are Not a Message or Theme • Buzzwords • Slogans “Time For a Change” “Are You Ready for Nicoletti” “Keep on Zimmering” • Issues • Jobs / Economy • Education • Health Care • Taxes • Crime

20. Memorable [& not so memorable] Themes • Are you better off than you were four years ago? – Ronald Reagan • Mario Cuomo, Too Liberal Too Long – George Pataki • Putting People First – Bill Clinton • Let America Be America Again – John Kerry • Her only special interest is you – Gail Schaffer • We can do better – JFK

21. Characteristics of a Good Theme • Clear – Don’t make the voter think about what you really mean • Concise – Should be expressed in a single sentence, or a short paragraph • Compelling – It should speak to the values and concerns of the voters • Contrasting – It should lay out the differences between you and your opponent • Credible – It must be believable; you need to demonstrate the theme

22. Develop Your Campaign Message Step-by-Step Demographic profile of your constituency Attitude profile of the voters Coalition Profile (Target Group) Make a list of you and your opponent’s strengths and challenges as candidates

23. Example

24. Developing Your Campaign Message Step-by-Step Draw lines of distinction between candidates “Mirror Opposite” strengths and challenges and “Stand Alone” strengths and challenges Craft Message Test Message: Questions to Ask

25. Does Your Message Answer the Following Questions… • Why does your candidate want the job, and what will (s)he do with it? • Why is your candidate better than the opposition for the job? • What issues support the need for your candidate’s election?

26. Test the Message • Appeal to the targeted groups • Full advantage to mirror opposites • Unique message? Too generic? Is it big enough, loud enough, and obvious enough? • Is your candidate a credible messenger for the message? • Does it help to inoculate your weaknesses?

27. Summary 1. The theme pervades every part of your plan. • It evolves from the broad pictures you have developed of your candidate, the voting public, and your opposition. • It should demonstrate your candidate’s strengths contrasted with your opponent's weaknesses. • It should speak to the values of your voters. • It is the rationale for your campaign.

28. One Last Word on Message… Stay on message: if it’s not on message, it’s off!

29. Strategy “Strategy is the art of making use of time and space.” - Napoleon Bonaparte

30. Strategy • Themes answer the question: Why are you running? • Strategy answers the question: How will you win? Broad strokes defining what your candidate needs to do in order to win the campaign. Using a combination of electoral results, turnout, and polling data, try to determine those actions that will increase votes for your candidate. • Each of these actions is a “goal” • Collectively these goals are your strategy.

31. Strategy Points Used Most Often In Winning Campaigns • Targeting the base vote plus a given percentage of other “persuadable” voters • Creating a clear contrast between you and your opponent • Building a diverse coalition of voters into a single voting block • Overwhelming the opposition with campaign activities • Creating a negative image of your opponent • Creating a positive image of your candidate • Building an organization capable of delivering a significant number of votes • Dividing voters along ideological lines

32. Tactics “Good tactics can save even the worst strategy. Bad tactics will destroy even the best strategy.” - General George S. Patton

33. Tactics • Mail Plan • Phone Plan • Walk Plan • Earned/Paid Media

34. Message Vehicles In Low Visibility Campaigns 1. In Person: • The Candidate • The candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblings • Volunteers • Surrogates • On the Phone: • The candidate • The candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblings • Volunteers • Surrogates • Direct Mail • Display Advertising

35. Delivering the Message • Follow the plan • Work from election day backwards • Generally focus on persuadables (swing districts) and blank’s closest to election day • Seniors and Democrats early on • Stay on message 4. Make it easy on the voter

36. Candidate Activity • Door-to-Door: Maximize the Impact • Candidate Coffees • Forums & Debates

37. Direct Mail • Follow the Plan • Work from Election Day backwards • Clearly state • Dominate • Illustrate • Validate

38. Direct Mail • Direct the mailing to the target group or segments within the target group. • Types of Mail: • Target Group Mail • Segments of the Target Group • Friend to Friend • Interest Group Mail (seniors, vets, etc.)

39. Sample Direct Mail Plan Matrix

40. Direct Mail Tips • Research tells us the average American receives more than 1,000 messages a day. • Current research tells us that new messages take up to seven repetitions to break through the clutter. • A message is only conveyed if it is read and you’re competing with lots of other messages so design is important • Communications research tells us 4 out of 5 readers don’t go beyond photo captions and headlines

41. Direct Mail Tips 5. Five photos every candidate should have: • Portrait / headshot • Family • Community Service • People / Constituents • Message

42. Direct Mail Tips • Get the message in the headline • Keep it brief 8. Avoid overstating • Fight boredom • Seed the mailing list

43. Mail Sample 1

44. Mail Sample 2

45. Display Advertising For Local Low Visibility Campaigns JUST LAWN SIGNS!!! No Billboards No Bumper Strips No Shirts No Pens No Note Pads

46. The Phone Canvass Voter Identification & GOTV • Call the target group 2. Start the night the first direct mail piece arrives • Determine the number of calling hours needed to sweep target

47. The Phone Canvass 1. Mark the sheets simply yes, no, or undecided • Follow-up options for undecided voters • Note from the volunteer • Late mailing to all undecided voters • Start with Democrats • Finish with Republicans and Blanks

48. GOTV 1. RoboCalls • Election Eve lit drop • Call only ID’d favorable voters • Blind pull unidentified Dems only if canvass produces near 70% favorable rates • Coordinating with Democratic Poll Inspectors

49. Managing Campaign Resources 1. Time • Scarcest resource • Work backwards • Match campaign communications with voter’s attention and decision making • Money - Budgeting • Develop from the plan • Cost out all campaign activities • Ideal vs. Alternative • Develop fundraising plan and scheduleto match • People • Develop from the plan • Estimate how many “volunteer” hours needed for each campaign activity • Develop plan for recruiting and managing people

50. When Do Voters Start Paying Attention? When Do They Decide Who They Will Vote For?