Determinants of French opinion on U.S Counter Terrorism Efforts James Marino jm3652a@american

1. Determinants of French opinion on U.S Counter Terrorism Efforts James Marino jm3652a@american.edu American University School of International Service

2. Background • Historically, France has been one of the European countries with the highest level of anti-American sentiment. • This escalated further in 2003 following widespread French opposition to the U.S invasion of Iraq. (My data is taken from 2005 at the peak of the Iraq War) • France is also home to one of the largest Muslim populations in Europe. We have seen how majority Muslim countries tend to have unfavorable views of the U.S. Will France’s Islamic minority hold the same views as rest of the country towards U.S counter terrorism efforts?

3. Research Question & Research hypothesis • Research Question: • Does religion play a significant role on French citizens’ view of the U.S “War on Terror”? • Research hypothesis: • When controlling for other factors, subscription to the Islamic faith increases the probability that French citizens will harbor negative attitudes towards the United States’ counter terrorism policy.

4. Lit. Review • Lawson and Hudson - “Who is Anti-American in Europe” • Theory: Anti-Americanism in Europe associated with a desire for greater European integration. • Findings : Theory not valid, but there is an association between Anti-Americanism and the desire for an independent European Defense policy. • The study also found Anti-Americanism to be highest in Spain, France, and Greece where it was found to be linked to age, education, and income. • Giacomo Chiozza - "A Crisis Like No Other? Anti-Americanism at the Time of the Iraq War" • Theory: Anti-Americanism in Europe comes in waves, and most recently it is a reaction to the Bush administration’s policies. • Findings : Found links to disapproval of Bush administration, but more alarmingly, the study revealed that largest proportion of anti-Americanism linked to a dislike of American public, which would indicate that the problem is more ingrained.

5. Data • Unit of analysis/study : individual • 2005 Pew Global Attitudes Survey • Generally reliable data • Issues with my primary independent variable (only 26 out of 750 respondents) • Dependent variable • French opinion of U.S counter terrorism efforts • Unit of Measurement: Individual • LOM=Nominal (recoded as a dummy variable) • Independent Variable • Age; Units=Individual; LOM=Ordinal • Education Level; Unit=Individual; LOM=Ordinal • Income; Unit=Individual; LOM=Ordinal • Region; Unit=Individual; LOM=Nominal • Importance of Religion; Unit= Individual; LOM=Ordinal • Gender; Unit=Individual; LOM=Nominal

6. Descriptive Statistics • Dependent Variable: French Opinion of U.S counter terrorism efforts • Unit: Individual • LOM: Nominal • Range = 0-1 • 0 = Oppose • 1 = Support • Mean = .4891599 • Mode = 0 • 738 Observations

7. Descriptive Statistics, cont. • Muslim only 3.467% of respondents. • National estimates put Muslims at 5-10% of French population • Therefore this an unrepresentative sample, which will raise issues in the data analysis.

8. Descriptive Statistics, cont.

9. Descriptive Statistics, cont.

10. Bivariate analysis, Dependent Variable French Opinion of U.S Counter Terrorism0-Oppose 1-Support

11. Probit Regression Analysis, Marginal EffectsDependent variable is Opinion of U.S counter terrorism efforts0= Oppose; 1 = Support , Y=.48839

12. Findings & Policy Implications of the research • Findings: After controlling for other variables in the probit analysis, I observed a significant association between the French Islamic population and French opposition to U.S counter terrorism policies. Therefore, I accept my research hypothesis However, future research with larger samples is required for a more definitive conclusion. • What are the policy implications of your findings? • The best policy option would be a change in administration, which occurred in 2008. It will be interesting to see what new survey data reveals about the current French consensus.