Building Partner Capacity for Combating WMD: SOUTHCOM

1. Building Partner Capacity for Combating WMD: SOUTHCOM Background and Context This presentation was prepared by RAND and SAIC in support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

2. Background (I) • The Panama Canal is approximately 80 kilometers long and uses a system of locks -compartments with entrance and exit gates • The lock chambers are 33.53 meters wide by 304.8 meters long • The maximum beam of ships that can transit the Canal is 32.3 meters • The largest vessel that can transit the Canal is known as a PANAMAX-size vessel (ranging from 50,000 - 80,000 tons in size) • The narrowest portion of the Canal is Culebra Cut, approximately 13.7 kilometers long, and carved through the rock and shale of the Continental Divide • 13 to 14 thousand vessels use the Canal every year. • Commercial transportation activities represent approximately 5% of the world trade

3. Background (II) • 13 to 14 thousand vessels use the Canal every year. Commercial transportation activities through the Canal represent approximately 5% of the world trade Shipments to and from the east coast of the U.S. accounted for almost half of all canal traffic, with shipments between the east coast of the U.S. and Asia comprising the largest single trade route. Panama's most contentious national security issue is control of its border areas—particularly the border with Colombia.

4. Setting the Context (I) • NNSA Office of Global Threat Reduction 2007 Strategic Plan • “Millions of radioactive sealed sources are used around the world for legitimate and beneficial commercial applications such as cancer treatment, food and blood sterilization, oil exploration, remote electricity generation, radiography, and scientific research. • These applications use isotopes such as Cesium- 137, Cobalt-60, Strontium-90, Americium-241, Iridium-192, Plutonium-238, Plutonium-239, Curium-244, Radium-226, and Californium-252. • Any of these materials could be used to make a radiological dirty bomb. Many of these radiological sources at sites around the world are no longer needed and have been abandoned or orphaned; others are poorly guarded, making the risk of theft or sabotage significant. • Currently, there are tens of thousands of civilian locations worldwide with radioactive material, about 5,000 of which contain sources of 1,000 curies or greater.”

5. Setting the Context (II) In a Scientific American article on dirty bombs, FAS calculated the effects of a 3500 Curie release in Manhattan, showing that such an attack would contaminate most of the island. The table below shows the weights required of various radioactive materials to make 1.0 and 3500 Curies.

6. Setting the Context (IV) • IAEA Illicit Trafficking Database (ITDB): • During the period 1993-2005, a total of 542 incidents were reported involving other radioactive materials mostly in the form of radioactive sources. • Illicit trafficking and other related unauthorized activities involving radioactive sources is a global phenomenon. • Incidents confirmed to the ITDB involved radioactive sources with various activity levels and applications. • The majority of them involved radioisotope 137Cs, followed by 241Am, 90Sr, 60Co and 192Ir. • Portable or mobile radioactive sources used for various industrial applications, such as gauging or radiography, are most frequently involved in confirmed incidents. • 38% of these incidents involved Cesium-137 (206 incidents)

7. Panama Canal “Dirty Bomb” Scenario • Sources indicate a truck carrying a radiological dispersion device is heading toward the canal’s Gutan lock • If detonated, the device will effectively shut down the canal until decontamination can be completed Authorities believe that the device is being transported by a group affiliated with a know terrorist group The radioactive source in the device is believed to be approximately 50g of Cesium-137, and may be rigged to detonate