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Prof Max Munday

Prof Max Munday. Examining the Welsh economy interconnections. Some opening issues for the day. the nature of the economic interconnections arising directly and indirectly from E4G type activity;

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Prof Max Munday

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  1. Prof Max Munday Examining the Welsh economy interconnections

  2. Some opening issues for the day • the nature of the economic interconnections arising directly and indirectly from E4G type activity; • How far is it possible to explicitly measure the economic outcomes connected to the projects? exploring some practical evaluation issues • some case material covering results from past studies in Wales

  3. Progress of the regional economy • understood in terms of improvements in regional GVA and related changes in productivity • convergence and structural funds • expect projects working with the built & natural environment to influence elements of the tourism facing economy & to have economic impacts in terms of GVA and employment improvements

  4. E4G might…… • improve skills supply side for tourism in the region • create employment • safeguard existing tourism revenues, stopping leakages • improve the diversity of local offer and perhaps extend the season; • change the distribution of visitor types: perhaps encouraging more staying visitors; or changing the nature of average spending patterns in rural areas; • change the connections between leisure activities / interests and other activities

  5. Don’t forget residents! • A focus on the ‘visitor economy’ in performance indicators • But projects improving services from the built or natural environment benefit local communities. • Improved flow of services from the habitat may mean that local residents do not go outside of the community to spend money • …..and flow of social and environmental services deriving from project outcomes can spill over into the economic arena (areas more attractive to live in, and perhaps making areas more attractive for new firm location).

  6. Scale of benefits linked to E4G….. • scale of regional economic benefits linked to project spending and levered tourism is related to the following; • gross spending of project monies and related employment incomes in reference areas; • new and safeguarded tourism revenues associated with the improved or maintained natural and man made capital; • new employment and incomes connected long term to improved natural assets….

  7. Economy wide effects Direct + Indirect effects What influences regional economy-wide effects?

  8. Regional effects • direction of spending i.e. how far is project-related spending tied to employment, and what are monies spent on • what is levered tourism spending spent on • where spending is on goods and services, then what proportion of these bought within local economy? • also relevant is location of 1st round spending e.g. even relatively small project expenditures need to be placed in their respective local economy contexts such that a thousand pounds of spending in a remote rural community may have a stronger economic profile than the same amount in a core location

  9. Tourism: directly and indirectly..

  10. Thorny issues to think about • Additionality (MEANS) • Whole project impact or just the European funded element? • What would have occurred without EU support?; • Could money have been used more efficiently • Can outputs be credited to the project (tourism, weather, currency…)

  11. Other tricky issues • Double counting • Displacement • Gross – DWT – DISP – Adj for DC + Multiplier effects = Net

  12. How big is gap gross & net??

  13. Summary • Economic interconnections can be mapped • Some difficult and thorny issues to be confronted • Two examples • Blaenavon • Anglesey Fens

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