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Jeff A. Hutton Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service

Jeff A. Hutton Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service. Recent Weather and a Look Ahead. This time last year…. October 2009 Precipitation. This year - 2010. October 2009 Temperatures. This year – October 2010. Precipitation for 2010. Temperatures. The Outlook.

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Jeff A. Hutton Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service

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  1. Jeff A. Hutton Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Recent Weather and a Look Ahead

  2. This time last year…

  3. October 2009 Precipitation

  4. This year - 2010

  5. October 2009 Temperatures

  6. This year – October 2010

  7. Precipitation for 2010

  8. Temperatures

  9. The Outlook

  10. First, what is the outlook based on?

  11. Water Temps compared to Normal

  12. Cold waters are deep!

  13. ENSO • El Nino – Southern Oscillation • A general term to describe both El Nino and La Nina • Irregular cycle of warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean

  14. Something new! El Nino Modoki drives a climate pattern known as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). El Nino Modoki

  15. Different Regions

  16. Arctic Oscillation

  17. North Pacific Decadal Oscillation

  18. This fall/winter

  19. The “Official” Outlook

  20. The “Official” Outlook

  21. For more information www.weather.gov

  22. Even day-to-day weather is hard to predict! Model forecast precipitation – Huge error west of a LaCrosse to Cimarron to Liberal line

  23. Computer predicted thunderstorm initiation zonevswhere the thunderstorms actually formed

  24. Computer predicated location of mature/well developed line of precipitation vsradar reflectivity which shows a 20 to 40 mile error

  25. Actual precipitation

  26. Any Questions?

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