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Computer Weather Forecasts for Wind Energy Plants

Computer Weather Forecasts for Wind Energy Plants. Khanh T. Tran AMI Environmental 206 Black Eagle Ave, Henderson, NV 89015 (702)564-9186 http://www.amiace.com. Wind Energy Forecasts. Growing Wind Energy Development Wind Energy is Intermittent Reliable Forecasts needed for Load Scheduling

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Computer Weather Forecasts for Wind Energy Plants

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  1. Computer Weather Forecasts forWind Energy Plants Khanh T. Tran AMI Environmental 206 Black Eagle Ave, Henderson, NV 89015 (702)564-9186 http://www.amiace.com

  2. Wind Energy Forecasts • Growing Wind Energy Development • Wind Energy is Intermittent • Reliable Forecasts needed for Load Scheduling • Forecasts of 48-Hour and Longer • Forecasts Updated Twice Daily • Facility located in Complex Terrain

  3. AMI Forecasting System

  4. AMI System Modules • Mesoscale Model MM5/WRF > Nested Grids of 36,12,4,1.33 km spacing > ETA/AVN Forecasts for IC/BC • Diagnostic Wind Model > 100 m spacing or less • Adaptive Statistical Module > Bias Removal > Recent Onsite Data • Internet-based Forecast Delivery (website, email) • System Runs on Linux Multiprocessor PC

  5. System Testing • Testing at FPL Southwest Mesa Plant in southwest Texas • 12-month Testing (April 2002-March 2003) sponsored by US DOE NREL and EPRI • Forecasts by AMI, TrueWind and Risoe • 48-Hour Forecasts twice daily at 00 UTC and 12 UTC (wind speed, wind direction, ambient temperature and wind energy)

  6. FPL Southwest Mesa Plant

  7. MM5 Modeling Domain

  8. Domain Topography

  9. System Performance Evaluation • Forecasts compared against actual observations (wind speed and energy) • Forecasts compared against persistence and climatological forecasts • Statistical measures (mean error ME, mean absolute error MAE, skill score)

  10. Sample Wind Speed Forecast

  11. Sample Wind Energy Forecast

  12. Forecast Performance Statistics

  13. Normalized MAE for Wind Speed

  14. Normalized MAE for Wind Energy

  15. Normalized Monthly MAE for WS

  16. Normalized Monthly MAE for WE

  17. Comparison of Forecast Systems

  18. Conclusions • AMI Forecast System based on advanced models • AMI system tested for 12-month in southwest Texas • AMI system provides accurate wind speed and energy forecasts • AMI system is more accurate than other systems • AMI system runs on Linux PC and can be easily adapted to other sites.

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