ICP Vegetation contributions to the LRTAP Convention on Ozone

1. ICP Vegetation contributions to the LRTAP Convention on Ozone Gina Mills, Harry Harmens, Felicity Hayes, Dave Norris et al. Gothenburg Protocol review, indicators, scenario analysis Impacts on food security Impacts on C sequestration ICP VEGETATION

2. Gothenburg Protocol Review: Indicators SOMO35 AOT40 Ozone flux (POD6) Health index – O3 conc. in air Vegetation index - O3 conc. in air Vegetation index - modelled O3 uptake by plants* * See Mills et al., 2011, Atmospheric Environment, 5064 – 5058 for a summary of flux-based critical levels for ozone

3. Gothenburg Protocol review: Ex-Post “Impacts” analysis • Risk assessment – forest trees • New scenarios (COB, low, low* etc.) • Economic impact assessment - for crops • NAT scenario

4. Scenario analysis - Broad-leaf forests (e.g. beech, birch) 2000 2020 - MID 2020- MFR Low risk Medium risk High risk • High risk areas reduced, but medium risk remains

5. Scenario analysis - Broad-leaf forests (e.g. beech, birch) 1POD1 values > 30 mmol m-2 2 POD1 values >15 mmol m-2

6. Scenario analysis - needle-leaf forests (e.g. Norway spruce) 2000 2020 - MID 2020- MFR Low risk Medium risk High risk • Lower risk than broad leaf forests, but medium risk remains across W Europe

7. Field evidence of effects: ICP Vegetation Evidence Report

8. ICP Vegetation – Expert groups for ozone * In close collaboration with EMEP MSC-West

9. ICP Vegetation State of Knowledge Report • Report to be published in late September • How does O3 damage crops? • By how much? • Which crops are sensitive? • Effects in N and S Europe • Case studies, including S Asia Costs provided are “best estimates” Pre-publication copies available ICP VEGETATION

10. Grouping of crops by sensitivity of yield to ozone Red font: Globally important staple food crops

11. Quantifying impacts on wheat production Ozone flux (POD6) in 2000 Wheat production (2000) * Assumes adequate soil moisture

12. Economic losses for wheat in Europe 2000 2020 Losses are in million Euro per 50 x 50 km grid square: 0 – 0.01 0.01 – 0.1 0.1 – 1.0 1.0 – 2.5 2.5 – 5.0 > 5 * Assumes adequate soil moisture available

13. Effects on wheat in EU27+CH+NO, NAT scenario Largest losses in France, Germany, Bulgaria and UK 1 In wheat-growing areas 2 Estimated for each grid square from the mean t/ha per country ICP VEGETATION

14. Economic losses for Tomato in Europe 2000 2020 Economic loss in million Euro per 50 x 50 km grid square: 0 – 0.01 0.01 – 0.1 0.1 – 1.0 1.0 – 2.5 2.5 – 5.0 > 5 * Irrigation assumed, squares with > 3 t production shown

15. Effects on Tomato in EU27+CH+NO, NAT scenario Largest losses in Italy, Spain and Greece * Estimated for each grid square from the mean t/ha per country ICP VEGETATION

16. Next report: O3 and C sequestration, including feedbacks to climate To be published, winter 2011/12 • Review of current knowledge • Impacts on carbon storage in grasslands and forests for 2000 and 2040, using climate and O3data from EMEP to run the:: • DO3SE model • JULES model (Sitch et al., 2007. Nature) Increased radiative forcing by CO2 and O3 Less CO2 uptake O3 Less C in roots ICP VEGETATION

17. 2020 2000 emissions, 2040 climate 2040 emissions, 2040 climate AOT40 POD1 Very provisional results! * Maps by EMEP using met data from Kjellström et al. (2010) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Tellus 63A, 24-40.

18. ICP Vegetation, ozone: Summary Gothenburg Protocol Review Recent analysis confirms that ozone impacts on vegetation extend into northern Europe, and cover a larger area of Europe than predicted for the human health indicator, SOMO35. The NAT, low, low* and MID scenarios will provide increased protection of vegetation, but losses will still be significant in 2020 e.g.2 billion Euro for wheat and medium risk of damage to broad-leaved trees over central and southern Europe Field evidence of effects Confirming evidence that:O3 impacts found in ambient air in areas with high fluxes Food security Important staple food crops are ozone sensitive, with economic implications for food supply within the ECE region and concerns for food supply being particularly worrying for developing countries such as in S Asia where ozone concentrations are rising rapidly. Expert groups formed to further improve knowledge exchange Food Security Report published this year C sequestration report for 2011/12 Ecosystem services report for 2012/13 ICP VEGETATION

19. SPARES

20. Comparison of Scenarios: Broad leaf trees