Climate and Living Marine Resources

1. Climate and Living Marine Resources Dr. Ned Cyr Director NMFS Office of Science and Technology OCO System Review October 28, 2010

2. NOAA’s Living Marine Resource Responsibilities + Antarctic Research Program

3. Magnuson Stevens Reauthorization Act • Optimum Yield “…is prescribed on the basis of maximum sustainable yield as reduced by any relevant economic, social or ecological factor.” • Climate will impact rebuilding plans and definition of maximum sustainable yield

4. Endangered Species Act ESA section 4(a)(1) factors for listing of species: • the present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range, • overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes, • disease or predation, • the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or • other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued existence.

5. August 2007 GAO Report “In general, resource managers lack specific guidance for incorporating climate change into their management actions and planning efforts. Without such guidance, their ability to address climate change and effectively manage resources is constrained.”

6. GAO Report: Recommendations • “GAO recommends that the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, and the Interior develop guidance incorporating agencies’ best practices, which advises managers on how to address climate change effects on the resources they manage and gather the information needed to do so.” • “Resource managers at our workshop also said that climate change is not a priority, in part, because of limited support from agency leaders. Specifically, resource managers discussing the coasts and oceans ecosystem said that there has been little support from agency leaders to comprehensively address climate change issues”.

7. Six Climate Change Issues – Living Marine Resources • Attribution of climate signals impacting ecosystems: long term change vs. natural variability • Ocean warming: impacts on distribution & productivity (phenology, production, invasives) • Impacts of loss of sea ice on living marine resources (at both poles) • Ocean acidification impacts on marine biota • Freshwater supply & resource management • Sea level rise (natural resource implications)

8. Pacific Sardine Harvest Control Rule (Pacific Fishery Management Council 1998) Allowable Catch Determined in Part by Ocean Temperature

9. Climate Change and Extinction Risks “Approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C (medium confidence).” - IPCC Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report

10. Loss of Arctic Sea IceEcological Implications for NOAA-Managed Species September, 2007 Petition To List Ringed, Ribbon, Spotted , Bearded Seals NOAA Trust Resources MMPA + ESA +Arctic FMP

11. ESA Case Study: Central Valley Project • Chinook salmon and steelhead trout are listed endangered/threatened under ESA In the Sacramento River and related drainages in California • In 2004, NMFS consulted with the State and Federal water agencies and determined that the proposed joint operation of the State and Federal Central Valley water projects was not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of listed salmon and steelhead • Coalition of environmental groups filed suit regarding the BiOP for chinook and steelhead based in part on the fact that long-term climate impacts on water availability were not taken into account as part of the baseline • The Bureau of Reclamation, NMFS and CALFED have reopened consultations under Section 7 of ESA regarding the BiOP

12. Ocean Acidification: A Consequence of Human Production of Greenhouse Gasses – Ocean Impacts & NOAA Responsibilities Ocean Acidification That ‘other’ CO2 problem Value: Bivalves: $732M ex-vessel commercial value Crustaceans: $1,265M ex-vessel commercial value Combined : $1,997M ex-vessel commercial value (51% of commercial catch by $) • Potential impacts on shelled plankton, coral reefs (shallow and deep), bivalves and crustaceans, and food chains • Managed resources under Coral Reef Conservation Act, MSRA, ESA

13. 2010 Results

14. Potential Ocean Acidification Effects on Food Webs EcoPath Model: Busch, Harvey, and McElhany

15. Monitoring the California Current Ecosystem • Objectives: • Sample biological, chemical, and physical oceanography, and meteorology • Understand physical-chemical linkages and biotic response • Observe events • Two surface moorings • CCE-1, off Pt. Conception, CC • CCE-2 on shelf-break, upwelling • Coordinated with CalCOFI, LTER, and CORC • Funding: NOAA NMFS and OCO, and contributions from collaborators

16. Region Observation Systems: SE Bering Sea NOAA’s North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity Program (NPCREP) • The only long-term biophysical moorings in the Arctic. • Primary source of climate and ecosystem information and synthesis for wide-range of decision-makers • Key NOAA Climate and Ecosystem Program

18. Moving Forward • Establish integrated regional frameworks for observations, research, modeling and decision support in all LMEs (e.g., NMFS-NCS service-level agreement, investments in NPCREP, OA, CCLME etc). • Produce regional predictions and projections of climate change impacts on oceans • Develop decision support tools to assess marine resource vulnerability and develop/evaluate management options. • Build capacity to support development of future scenarios. • Increase understanding of social and economic impacts.

19. Backups

20. NOAA’s in situ Ecological Observations Northeast U.S. Example

21. Trends in Sea Level Rise & Resource Impacts

22. SLR Example: How will Protected Species critical habitats change with SLR in the NWHI Monument? Example Whaleskate Island French Frigate Shoals, NWHI • Once an important nesting island for Hawaiian green sea turtles and a primary pupping site for endangered Hawaiian monk seals • Few feet above sea level; what would be the impacts of observed rates of SLR on Protected Species breeding and nesting habitat? • 2006 study published by NOAA scientists in the journal Biological Conservation (Baker et al. 2006) 1963 2002

23. CCE-1, California Current Ecosystem Buoy • CCE-1 mooring • CalCOFI station 80.80 • 4000 m depth • Deployments • Nov 2008 - Feb 2009 • Re-deployed May 2009 – Dec 2009 • Re-deployed Dec 2009 – Sep 2010 • Re-deployed Sep 2010 – present • Surface buoy • Atmospheric pressure, temp, velocity,CO2 • Sea-surface temp, salinity, CO2, O2 • Water currents to 500 m (ADCP) • Subsurface sensors • 80 m - T, S, Chl-a, turbidity, pH, O2, NO3−, cumulative biomass via radiometers • 0 to 320 m – Fish and zooplankton via Echotags • 1000 m – Marine mammal sounds • Real-time data viewable online