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G4: Dr . Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET, Bangladesh Md. Raqubul Hasib , IWM, Bangladesh

Climate Change Projections for Selected Polders of the Coastal Region to assess impact on Agriculture and Water Resources. G4: Dr . Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET, Bangladesh Md. Raqubul Hasib , IWM, Bangladesh . Study Area - Polders3 , 30, 43/2F. Khulna. Shatkhira. Polder 30. Polder-3.

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G4: Dr . Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET, Bangladesh Md. Raqubul Hasib , IWM, Bangladesh

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  1. Climate Change Projections for Selected Polders of the Coastal Region to assess impact on Agriculture and Water Resources G4: Dr. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET, Bangladesh Md. RaqubulHasib, IWM, Bangladesh

  2. Study Area - Polders3, 30, 43/2F Khulna Shatkhira Polder 30 Polder-3 Patuakhali Polder Polder 43/2F

  3. Climate Change Scenarios • Climate projections are performing on the basis of three extreme emission scenarios • A2 scenarios - High • A1B scenarios – Moderate • B2 scenarios – Low (on going) • Two GCMs are- • HadCM3, CGCM3

  4. General Approach to Downscaling Applicable to: •Sub-grid scales (small islands, point processes) •Complex/ heterogeneous environments •Extreme events

  5. Statistical downscaling • Predictands (to predict) • 1. Maximum air temperature.2. Minimum air temperature.3. Precipitation • Predictors (26 variables such as-MSL, RH, WIND, HEGIHT, TEMPERATURE • at different atmospheric levels Tools used for statistical downscaling

  6. Methods of Processing Following procedure are performed during downscaling: • Check Quality of the data • Screening of predictor variable • Screening of predictor variable. • Calibration and validation of GCM with station data • Synthesis of observed data using weather generator • Generation of Climate change scenario using calibration parameters

  7. Climate Change Projections for Polder 3 (Satkhira)

  8. Model calibration at Satkhirafor Tmax (HadCM3 A2)

  9. Model calibration at Satkhirafor precipitation (HadCM3 A2)

  10. Validation of Maximum Temperature for HadCM3 A2 scenario

  11. Validation of Mean precipitation for HadCM3 A2 scenario

  12. Maximum Temperature Projections considering A2 and A1B Scenarios Maximum Increase in monsoon period Maximum Increase in pre monsoon period

  13. Precipitation projections considering HADCM3 A2 Scenarios

  14. Precipitation projections considering A1B Scenarios

  15. Summary for Polder 3 (Satkhira) Temperature Change : Temperature will increase gradually in the future period. Rate of Temperature change is greater for A2 than A1B .

  16. Precipitation change: • For A2 scenario mean precipitation will increase in overall period of the year. Consecutive dry day will increase in monsoon and pre monsoon period, that denotes that rainfall intensity or rainfall duration may increase for that period. • For A1B scenario mean precipitation will increase in monsoon and pre-monsoon period.

  17. Climate Change Projections for Polder 30 (Khulna)

  18. Maximum Temperature Projections considering A2 and A1B Scenarios Maximum Increase of in monsoon period Maximum Increase in Pre monsoon period

  19. Precipitation Projections considering HadCM3 A2 Scenarios

  20. Precipitation Projections considering A1B Scenarios

  21. Summary for polder 30 (Khulna) Precipitation Change : • For A2 scenario mean precipitation will increase in pre-monsoon, post monsoon and monsoon period. • For the case of A1B scenario it is observed that mean precipitation will increase in pre-monsoon, post monsoon and monsoon period. Precipitation of the year will be delayed about one month during monsoon

  22. Climate Change Projections for Polder 43/2F (Patuakhali)

  23. Maximum Temperature Projections considering A2 and A1B Scenarios

  24. Precipitation Projections considering HadCM3 A2 Scenarios

  25. Precipitation Projections considering CGCM3 A1B Scenarios

  26. Precipitation change: • For A2 scenario mean precipitation will increase in monsoon period consecutive wet day will decrease that denotes rainfall intensity will increase. Decrease of precipitation in post monsoon season. • In A1B scenario mean precipitation will decrease in pre monsoon and monsoon period.

  27. Future taks • Conduct Climate Extreme analysis using Indices. • Complete Analysis of B2 scenarios • Generate Climate Projections for the Ganges Basin.

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