Pres 5 Sam Averitt

1. Pres # 5 Sam Averitt

2. Three simple questions, no simple answers! So how do we plan for the future? How do we determine which things are important to success and which are legacy baggage that needs to be discarded? How do we get there? I think we get there by applying traditional values, values all of you are familiar with The challenge is not determining new values but rather how to apply traditional values in a radically altered landscape Adaptability is key to the future � things will change, can we, will we, adapt? Where are we going? Where do we want to go? What outcomes do we want to achieve? What are our goals, aspirations, needs? Where are we? We are at a crossroads, the end of the beginning. And yes we have been here before but few technologies have had the transformative power of IT This is a crossroads between the progressive and the revolutionary between improvement and transformation between seeking a solution and rethinking the question Three simple questions, no simple answers! So how do we plan for the future? How do we determine which things are important to success and which are legacy baggage that needs to be discarded? How do we get there? I think we get there by applying traditional values, values all of you are familiar with The challenge is not determining new values but rather how to apply traditional values in a radically altered landscape Adaptability is key to the future � things will change, can we, will we, adapt? Where are we going? Where do we want to go? What outcomes do we want to achieve? What are our goals, aspirations, needs? Where are we? We are at a crossroads, the end of the beginning. And yes we have been here before but few technologies have had the transformative power of IT This is a crossroads between the progressive and the revolutionary between improvement and transformation between seeking a solution and rethinking the question

3. CULTURE think enterprise value efficiency, relevance & accountability PARTNERSHIP cultivate win-win opportunities move beyond traditional boundaries prepared for dynamic engagement SERVICE manage expectations empower opportunity Navigating an Uncertain Future

4. Riding the Tsunami

5. When I graduated from college giga was virtually unheard of Today giga is commodity technology You buy giga technology at Circuit City, CompUSA, and Toys-R-Us Tera is state-of-the-art technology � available for a price the NCSC supercomputer is a teraflop machine core Internet routers can handle a terabit of aggregated traffic. many data bases are multi-terabytes in size Peta is at the frontier of development IBM plans to build a petaflop computer in the next five years to do bioinformatics petabyte data bases are a reality Look at the pyramid of zeros, every zero represents an order of magnitude of change how many of you in this room today will live to see exa technology? it is predicted that by 2040 we will have quantum computing technology processors with operating at speeds one billion times faster than those of today � count the zeros, nine orders of magnitude � exa technology I find the imprecations mind boggling. When I graduated from college giga was virtually unheard of Today giga is commodity technology You buy giga technology at Circuit City, CompUSA, and Toys-R-Us Tera is state-of-the-art technology � available for a price the NCSC supercomputer is a teraflop machine core Internet routers can handle a terabit of aggregated traffic. many data bases are multi-terabytes in size Peta is at the frontier of development IBM plans to build a petaflop computer in the next five years to do bioinformatics petabyte data bases are a reality Look at the pyramid of zeros, every zero represents an order of magnitude of change how many of you in this room today will live to see exa technology? it is predicted that by 2040 we will have quantum computing technology processors with operating at speeds one billion times faster than those of today � count the zeros, nine orders of magnitude � exa technology I find the imprecations mind boggling.

6. Everything/Ubiquitous Graph One graph describes everything pick a technology characteristic, plot its change, and this is what it looks like the magnitude of change over the last 20 years is 12,000x in the early 80�s microcomputer hard drives became available the size of these early hard drives was roughly 4 Megabytes today I can easily point and click on the internet and order a 48 Gigabyte drive � for my laptop! One graph describes everything pick a technology characteristic, plot its change, and this is what it looks like the magnitude of change over the last 20 years is 12,000x in the early 80�s microcomputer hard drives became available the size of these early hard drives was roughly 4 Megabytes today I can easily point and click on the internet and order a 48 Gigabyte drive � for my laptop!

8. The Future Is Borg But you better have answers to the four question I ask you to ponder or your worst nightmare awaits you For those of you familiar with Star-Trek�s infamous Borg no further explanation is required For those of you who are not suffice it to say NOT GOOD � it�s technology run amuck The future is what we make it But you better have answers to the four question I ask you to ponder or your worst nightmare awaits you For those of you familiar with Star-Trek�s infamous Borg no further explanation is required For those of you who are not suffice it to say NOT GOOD � it�s technology run amuck The future is what we make it

9. As In Technology Mages The distant future is the mirror image of the Borg Model. we will not become drones we will not be bound to a collective we will not be mindless machines The distant future is the mirror image of the Borg Model. we will not become drones we will not be bound to a collective we will not be mindless machines

10. In This Future

11. What is your plan? What are you willing to give up? Who are your partners? What is your level of engagement? What are you willing to contribute? Are we prepared for this future? What is your plan? my plan for toady is to persuade you that we in this together collaboratively we can continue to make progress despite sever resource limitations What are you willing to give up? What are the things that differentiate your business What things could be done just as good or better some other way it�s a control and ownership issue ComTec who are your partners Do you understand your partners� business as well as they understand yours? When was the last time you restructured your partnerships assistive technology Internet2, NCNI, WolfWare what is your level of engagement? What is your participation in existing decision making groups? Is your organization missing, present, participating or contributing to the agenda Standards Committee teaching and research faculty What are you willing to contribute? Aggregated effort is increasingly the only path to accomplishment HPPC and networking at MCNC Are we prepared for this future? What is your plan? my plan for toady is to persuade you that we in this together collaboratively we can continue to make progress despite sever resource limitations What are you willing to give up? What are the things that differentiate your business What things could be done just as good or better some other way it�s a control and ownership issue ComTec who are your partners Do you understand your partners� business as well as they understand yours? When was the last time you restructured your partnerships assistive technology Internet2, NCNI, WolfWare what is your level of engagement? What is your participation in existing decision making groups? Is your organization missing, present, participating or contributing to the agenda Standards Committee teaching and research faculty What are you willing to contribute? Aggregated effort is increasingly the only path to accomplishment HPPC and networking at MCNC

12. Next Generation Internet INTUITIVE � natural, easy & simple UBIQUTIOUS � everywhere & always on AWARE � a web of embedded agents INTELLIGENT � interpretive and contextual ACCESSIABLE � universal design and opportunity FAST � multimedia capable SECURE � trusted for transactions great and small PERVASIVE � work and leisure, life RICH � voluminous content/information

13. Next Generation Internet 10X Content and function explode Grids emerge as the next great Internet technology Complexity becomes the number one Internet issue

14. Next Generation Internet 100X Web and grid technologies converge A unifying Internet operating architecture emerges All information and resources appear local The Internet becomes the system

15. Next Generation Internet 1000X The complexities of the internet become transparent Intelligent agents translate between intent and action Information flows with the speed of expression

16. Toward the Limits of Comprehension Closer in, let�s look at the all everything graph again The same graph as before with the timeline extended another decade the technology of 2001 is hardly a blip the magnitude of change is now 800,000X your 48 gigabyte disk is now 3.2 terabytes Is this extrapolation realistic? �.. Absolutely Intel announced at this past fall�s microelectronics conference in Kyoto that �using quantum tricks� it had the next three generations of chip technology in the bag translated this means no dramatic change in facilities, materials or technology chip price performance curves will continue at least through the latter part of the decade a processor with a billion transistors, 1.7 terahertz transistor switching speed, using half the power increased complexity, increased speed, less power � seems like it must violate a physical law What does this tell us about the near term future handheld devices � pervasive and extraordinarily powerful multimedia � everywhere and high quality data storage � personal libraries forget files, we are talking libraries: like a library of 1000 DVD�s, like the 1995 version of the library of congress wireless � every device, appliance and gadget will be network capable to name a few Closer in, let�s look at the all everything graph again The same graph as before with the timeline extended another decade the technology of 2001 is hardly a blip the magnitude of change is now 800,000X your 48 gigabyte disk is now 3.2 terabytes Is this extrapolation realistic? �.. Absolutely Intel announced at this past fall�s microelectronics conference in Kyoto that �using quantum tricks� it had the next three generations of chip technology in the bag translated this means no dramatic change in facilities, materials or technology chip price performance curves will continue at least through the latter part of the decade a processor with a billion transistors, 1.7 terahertz transistor switching speed, using half the power increased complexity, increased speed, less power � seems like it must violate a physical law What does this tell us about the near term future handheld devices � pervasive and extraordinarily powerful multimedia � everywhere and high quality data storage � personal libraries forget files, we are talking libraries: like a library of 1000 DVD�s, like the 1995 version of the library of congress wireless � every device, appliance and gadget will be network capable to name a few

17. CULTURE Is pervasive Are you prepared to reinvent your practices? PARTNERSHIP Is essential Are you prepared for the diminishing relevance of traditional organizations? SERVICE Is a balance Walk a day in the shoes of those you serve? Navigating an Uncertain Future So what have we learned ? What is the message? 1 � technology will take care of itself, the real issue is what do we want it to do? 2 � traditional values remain valid Culture is pervasive Culture influences everything we do the way we think, work and react to �opportunities� Are we prepared to reinvent our culture? Partnership is essential the critical mass for success defies traditional boundaries parochialism is a fatal condition Are we prepared for the diminishing relevance of traditional organizations Service is a balance a balance between wants and needs, dreams and reality service is about making choices and managing consequences Have we walked a day in the shoes of those we serve? Three things, culture partnership and service, are key to future success We are in this process together. So what have we learned ? What is the message? 1 � technology will take care of itself, the real issue is what do we want it to do? 2 � traditional values remain valid Culture is pervasive Culture influences everything we do the way we think, work and react to �opportunities� Are we prepared to reinvent our culture? Partnership is essential the critical mass for success defies traditional boundaries parochialism is a fatal condition Are we prepared for the diminishing relevance of traditional organizations Service is a balance a balance between wants and needs, dreams and reality service is about making choices and managing consequences Have we walked a day in the shoes of those we serve? Three things, culture partnership and service, are key to future success We are in this process together.

18. Question & Answer Session