1 / 9

Diversifying the Mix: A Workshop on Alternatives to Conventional Generation Technology

Diversifying the Mix: A Workshop on Alternatives to Conventional Generation Technology Westin Hotel Ottawa, Ontario November 25 2002. Session 2: Economic Fundamentals. Michael Margolick, Senior Associate. Outline. A scenario Transmission Kyoto and green tags Reliability and storage

louise
Download Presentation

Diversifying the Mix: A Workshop on Alternatives to Conventional Generation Technology

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Diversifying the Mix: A Workshop on Alternatives to Conventional Generation Technology Westin Hotel Ottawa, Ontario November 25 2002 Session 2: Economic Fundamentals Michael Margolick, Senior Associate GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  2. Outline • A scenario • Transmission • Kyoto and green tags • Reliability and storage • Incentives and programs • Public attitudes and the market GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  3. A scenario • natural gas prices up [2 years] • air quality/climate change [2 – 5 years] • hydrogen technology [5 – 10 years] • mass production and energy infrastructure [10 – 20 years] • capital stock is energy-efficient [5 – 100 years] GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  4. Transmission • Independent transmission decisions essential to • Decide on connection, yes or no • Build the connection • Define the point of interconnection • Allocate costs • Set terms of operation • Utility-scale connections for utility-scale plants GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  5. Kyoto and green tags • Benefits must be monetized – optics and voluntary green purchases limited • GHG survey: ~US$10/tonne CO2 in 2010 • Effect of DET on renewables depends on market structure – avg vs marginal cost pricing GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  6. Reliability and storage • Run-of-river and wind: generation system impacts small if transmission adequate • Storage hydro: great advantage • Contribution to load serving should be treated statistically • Offshore wind will drive hydrogen technology GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  7. Incentives and programs • Canada is well behind US and EU • Programs atomized and restrictive • Tax-linked incentives • side-effects • lag technological change • high transaction costs • uncertain outcomes • Technology, not Canadian technology • Key role to buy down risk – industry is conservative GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  8. Public attitudes People do not understand relative magnitudes Green energy is good in the abstract a small business concept tainted if built by big oil and utilities GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

  9. A definition of success: “nothing special” The industry will be successful when alternate energy becomes just another source of undifferentiated wholesale electricity commodity GCSI-Natsource LLC www.gcsi.ca www.natsource.com

More Related