1 / 22

NCEP Production Review: Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Production Review: Aviation Weather Center. David Bright NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC Kansas City, MO December 4-6, 2012 NCWCP College Park, MD. Where Americas Climate and Weather Services Begin. Outline. FY12 Production Highlights: Accomplishments

luana
Download Presentation

NCEP Production Review: Aviation Weather Center

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. NCEP Production Review:Aviation Weather Center David Bright NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC Kansas City, MO December 4-6, 2012 NCWCP College Park, MD Where Americas Climate and Weather Services Begin

  2. Outline • FY12 Production Highlights: Accomplishments • FY13 Production Highlights: Plans and Milestones • EMC Production Collaboration and Wish List

  3. Outline • FY12 Production Highlights: Accomplishments • FY13 Production Highlights: Plans and Milestones • EMC Production Collaboration and Wish List

  4. FY12 Production HighlightsAccomplishments • National Aviation Meteorologists (NAMs) • Air Traffic Control Strategic Command Center (ATSCC; Warrenton, VA) • Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) • Summer Experiment 2012 • Aircraft Situation Display to Industry (ASDI) • Extended Convective Forecast Product • SREF-based operational extension of CCFP • Aviation Winter Weather Dashboard (WWD) • SREF-based Decision Support Guidance • Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) Training

  5. AWT Summer ExperimentJune 4-15, 2012 http://testbed.AviationWeather.gov

  6. National Aviation Meteorologist (NAM)Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), Warrenton, VA

  7. ATCSCC, AWT, and NAMs Aviation Weather Statement (AWS) AVIATION WEATHER STATEMENT 0020NWS AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO1551 UTC MON 11 JUN 2012NAS ELEMENTS AFFECTED...ZAU, ORD/MDW TERMINAL AREASIMPACT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR TERMINALS AND SE OF TERMINALS. TOPS MAINLY BELOW FL300, ISOLATED UP TO FL350. CONSTRAINT WILL BE PRIMARILY FOR TRAFFIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ORD/MDWIMPACT VALID TIME...1800Z-2100Z DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY WEST OF AND/OR OVER TERMINAL AREAS AROUND 1800Z. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW CCFP CRITERIA AND IN LINE WITH CURRENT COSPA SOLUTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPMENT. http://testbed.aviationweather.gov/aws/index?date=

  8. June 29-30, 2012 DerechoAviation Impacts ASDI available to forecasters in NMAP2 ASDI Animation: Start: ~17 UTC June 29 End: ~05 UTC June 30 Image: Dan Vietor, AWC

  9. Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP) Operational (April, 2012) SREF-based (SPC CalTstm) Guidance to 72 hours (6-hr windows) Very popular at ATCSCC to TFMs ECFP contours at 40, 60, & 80%

  10. Winter Weather Dashboard (WWD)SREF-Based Decision Support Guidance http://testbed.aviationweather.gov/winterdashboard

  11. Winter Weather Dashboard (WWD)SREF-Based Decision Support Guidance http://testbed.aviationweather.gov/winterdashboard

  12. Winter Weather Dashboard (WWD)SREF-Based Decision Support Guidance http://testbed.aviationweather.gov/winterdashboard

  13. Outline • FY12 Production Highlights: Accomplishments • FY13 Production Highlights: Plans and Milestones • EMC Production Collaboration and Wish List

  14. FY13 Production HighlightsPlans and Milestones • Winter Weather Dashboard & Verification • Add ceiling, visibility, and plumes • Verification and predictability of these fields • Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) • Ceiling, visibility, icing, turbulence, LLWS • Data mining & predictability of these fields • CCFP shifting to 4, 6, 8 hour forecast • 2-hour automated guidance • Probabilistic (ensemble) / deterministic (high-res) blend • AWT Winter Experiment (Feb 11-22, 2013) • Focusing on efficiencies in area forecast production, hazards detection, higher-resolution tools.

  15. FY13 Production HighlightsPlans and Milestones • Traffic flow management (TFM) tools for the NAMS • ASDI decision support • AWT Summer Experiment • Dates TBD • Ensemble processing • Developing new AWT Ensemble Processor software • Putting new tools and diagnostics in front of forecasters • SREF & SSEO output • Increase operational efficiencies (e.g., Area Forecast) • Better guidance for AIRMETS and SIGMETS • Eddy Dissipation Rate

  16. SREF Probability of IFR Ceiling (< 1000’ AGL)

  17. SREF Probability of Mountain Obscuration SREF Ceiling Forecast High-Res Terrain + SREF Ceiling Z SREF Terrain X

  18. SREF Probability of Mountain Obscuration

  19. SREF Probability of Icing from CWTR Mean Base (Feet – MSL) Probability Mean Top (Feet – MSL) Mean Level of Max (Feet – MSL)

  20. Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR)Objective Turbulence Measurement EDR Z Svr Mod Light Work in progress to display in NMAP2 for Winter Weather Experiment

  21. Outline • FY12 Production Highlights: Accomplishments • FY13 Production Highlights: Plans and Milestones • EMC Production Collaboration and Wish List

  22. Collaboration and Wish List • Hourly output of SREF 16 km grid • Only 3-hourly output currently available • Support of short-term automated guidance (2-hour CCFP replacement) • Ceiling and visibility guidance • Dec 4 SREF upgrade • Possible issues with omega in SREF members??? • Explicit evaluation of aviation hazards from high-resolution models • Cloud water and rain water mixing ratios for icing prediction • Explicit indicators (or proxies) of turbulence (TKE; vertical velocity) • Time-step history variables for turbulence and icing detection • Collaboration of time-lagged ensemble (NARRE-TL) • World Area Forecast System (WAFS) Science Meeting (Feb 25-28 at NCWCP) • Global hazards and GFS/GEFS post-processing • AWRP Processing on WCOSS or Compute Farm

More Related