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Rocket Propulsion Industrial Base: Acquisition and Manufacturing Analysis

This update provides an overview of the current status of rocket propulsion system acquisition and the health of the industrial base. It compares additive manufacturing to traditional manufacturing, discusses supply chain and workforce modeling, and explores public-private partnerships. The report also examines the threats and competitive forces in the guided missile and space vehicle manufacturing industry.

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Rocket Propulsion Industrial Base: Acquisition and Manufacturing Analysis

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  1. IndustrialBaseModeling for Space LaunchPropulsionAcquisition WinterAcquisitionUpdate,February18,2016 JohnF.Rice ProfessorofEngineeringandInformationTechnology DefenseAcquisitionUniversity(DAU) RajivDoreswamy,Ph.D. Manager,NationalInstituteforRocketPropulsion Systems (NIRPS),NASA-MSFC

  2. Overview • Propulsionsystemacquisitionstatus • Industrialbasecompositionandhealth • Additivemanufacturingcomparedtotraditional • manufacturing • Supplychain&workforcemodeling • DoD&NASApublic-privatepartnerships

  3. PropulsionSystem AcquisitionStatus

  4. PropulsionIndustrialBase isaNationalConcern • CongressionalandExecutiveOfficeconcernsabout RocketPropulsionIndustrialBase(RPIB) • Widespreadrecognitionoftheproblem • Sustainmentofthesolidrocketmotorand liquidrocketengineindustrialbaseisa nationalchallengethat spansmultiple departmentsandagenciesoftheU.S. Government. • Integratedapproachamongtheleadershipof • USGovernment Agencies • Needforaccurateanalysisanddatatoinform decisionmakersacrossUSG Agencies • WhatisNIRPS? NationalInstituteforRocket • PropulsionSystems • StartedonSeptember16,2011through authorizationlettersignedbyNASAAdministrator CharlieBoldentoworktogetherwith USAFand NRO toaddressRocketPropulsionIndustrialbase concerns • ForNASA, MarshallSpaceFlightCenter (MSFC) namedaslead • Resourcelightbut “resultsheavy”

  5. IndustrialBaseHealth Framework Substitutes Threat of Substitutes Porter’s Five Forces IndustryCompetitors Suppliers BargainingPower of Suppliers Buyers BargainingPower of Buyers Intensityof Rivalry Threat of NewEntrants NewEntrants •Five keycategoriesofforcesasthreatstocompetitiveadvantage. •Clearrepresentationofexternalandinternalforces. •Sufficientlygenericforconsiderationofrisksasthreats.

  6. IndustrialSector ofInterest • NAICS336414GuidedMissileandSpaceVehicleManufacturing • ThisU.S.industrycomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedin: • (1)manufacturingcompleteguidedmissilesandspacevehicles and/or(2)developingandmakingprototypesofguidedmissile or spacevehicles. • ThisIndustryis comprisedof: • Developingandproducingprototypesforcompleteguidedmissilesand spacevehicles • Guidedmissileand spacevehiclemanufacturing • Guidedmissiles, complete,assembling • Rockets(guidedmissiles), spaceandmilitary,complete,manufacturing • Spacevehicles,complete,manufacturing Source: www.siccode.com

  7. CompetitiveThreat Definitions/Assessment • ThreatofNewEntrants:HIGHbarrierstoentryduetointensivecapitalinvestment,needforeconomiesofscale,strictregulation,researchanddevelopmentinvestment,andcontract basedsaleswith governmententities. Dualuseofcommercialproductswithingovernmentand industrycouldshiftbiaslower. • ThreatofSubstitutes:LOWduetolimitednumberofproducersandcustomizedproduct choices,with mostproductsbeingorder-specific.Switching costsare alsohigh,butprice- performancetradeoffofsubstitutescouldpresentopportunities. • BargainingPowerofSuppliers:HIGH-MED duetoadvancedtechnologyusedinparts,long leadtimesforproduction,andcontractsusedforsales.Also,fewproducersinthemarketwith differentproductlinesserving differentneeds. ForeignsuppliersandUSGovernment influencesinthemanufacturingprocesscouldreducethisthreat. • BargainingPowerofBuyers:MED-LOWduetomanyairlinespurchasingaircraftandfew qualifiedproducers.However,negotiationsonpriceexist forlargebuyers,bidsforgovernment contracts,emergenceofnon-USsuppliers. • IntensityofRivalry:MED primarilyduetotemperinginfluencesofhighconcentrationratio,long-termcontracts,sustainablemarketgrowth,andsignificantbrand identification/differentiation. Someupwardbiasgiven highstrategicstakesandhighexit barriers.SomenichemarketUSparticipantsandEuropeancompetitionalsoincreaseintensity. Source:http://www.hoovers.com/industry-facts.aerospace-products-parts-manufacturing.1001.html

  8. PropulsionSurveyAssessment Background • PartnershipbetweenDepartmentofCommerce(DoC)and NIRPS • Theprinciplegoal istogainanunderstandingofthesupplychain networksupportingthedevelopment,production,andsustainmentof productsandservicessupportingbothUS Government(USG)and commercialpropulsion-relatedsystems. • Objectives: • Mapthepropulsionindustrialbasesupplychaininunprecedenteddetail; • Identifyinterdependenciesbetweenrespondents,suppliers,customers, • andUSG agencies; • Benchmarktrends inbusinesspractices, competitivenessissues, financial health,etc.across manytiers ofthepropulsionindustrialbase;and • SharedatawithUSG stakeholderstoaidplanning,outreach,and problem • resolution. Source:U.S. Department of Commerce,Bureauof IndustryandSecurity Cleared for PublicRelease

  9. RPIBRisksAreSharedAcross USGProgramsandAgencies 354respondentswere determinedtobefinancially high/severerisk* NOAA 79 SampleoffourUSG agenciesandtheirshared supplierrisk 47 74 NASA 237 NRO 69 45 Cross-cuttingrelationships canbeviewedbyproductor program *Basedonaseriesoffinancialriskmeasures, takingintoaccountprofitability,liquidity,leverage,andothers 167 66 212 USAF Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,BureauofIndustryand SecurityClearedforPublicRelease

  10. NIRPS/DoCRPIB Survey • Sharedriskbetweenagenciesandprograms • Needto understandrisk • Needtotoidentify“at-risk”suppliersandany potential • Riskmitigation • Needto followtrendsinthe RPIB to gaugeeffectsof foreigncompetition,newentrants andadvanced manufacturingtechnologies • Datawillbeusedtoinformdecisions • Updatesupplychainmodelwith currentdata • Sharedwithother governmentagencisandprograms • Data is inherentlygovernmental

  11. NIRPS/DoCRPIBSurvey • January-April2016 • Surveydesign,mailinglistcleanup,sitevisits,andfield • testing • •May2016 • OMBApprovalProcess • June-August2016 • Surveydistribution,1st and2ndwaves • September-October2016 • Surveyreturn/compliance/qualitycontrol procedures/databasebuild • November-December2016 • Preliminarybriefingsanddistributionoffulldatasetto NASA/MSFC

  12. AdditiveManufacturingCanBeA TransformationalTechnology • AdditiveManufacturing(AM)is an emergingtechnology that requiresapublic/privatepartnershipto optimizethe use of this technology • Areas of partnershipinclude • MaterialsCharacterization • Process Modeling • Standardsandrequirements • AMwillhavea significantimpact onthe Propulsion • IndustrialBase (needstobequantified)

  13. AdditiveManufacturingCanBeA • TransformationalTechnology(cont’d) • Allowsrapidprototypingofpotentialdesignsfor multipledesign,test,fixcycles • Complexdesignsnotfeasiblebyconventional subtractivemanufacturingcanbefabricatedand maycontributetoperformanceoptimization • Providesanalternativemethodofproduction, whentraditionalsuppliersarenotavailableordo nothaveproductioncapacity

  14. AdditiveManufacturing -PlaceholderforRajiv-

  15. RocketPropulsionIndustrialBase Evaluation • Developcapabilitytoperformpropulsionsupplychain • analysistoinformdecisionmakers • InitiatedAerospaceCorp.taskin2013togeneratemulti-layer propulsionsupplychainmapsforSpaceLaunchSystem (SLS)anddevelopmethodologytoidentifyconnectivity betweensuppliersandidentifyrisks/obsolescenceissues • ResultedindevelopmentofahybridSupplyChainDatabasewith ProbabilisticScenarioAnalysis,PropulsionSupplierIntegratedModelingandAnalysis(PropSIMA) • Nowincludesover600propulsion-relatedsuppliersacrossmultipleUSGandCommercialprogramsandvehicle,engine,motordemand modelsto2030 • PerformedanalysisforSLSprogramonExplorationUpper Stage(EUS)options • SupportingUSAFEvolvedExpendableLaunchVehicle • (EELV)ProcurementandAcquisitionStrategiesincluding • HydrocarbonBoosterEngineriskreductioneffortsandIBimpacts • IBimpactsduetoNewCommercialEntrants • UsingintegratedDoD,NASAandCommercialLVdemandmodels SharedSuppliers(ref2013Deep Dive)

  16. RocketPropulsionIndustrialBaseEvaluation(cont’d) • DevelopingPropulsionSkills/Capabilitiesscenarioanalysisto helpunderstandNASA’s skillmix risks • CollaboratingwiththeDepartmentof Commerceto developand trendRPIBmetrics andcriticalsupplier pedigrees • Focusedsurvey willbeissuedto approximately200 criticalsuppliersmid-2016 • Inquirytopics willincludeFinancials,R&D, Employment,Sales andKey Suppliers/Customers/Competitors • IntegratedapproachwithJANNAF* PIBto assess sharedUSG trends andrisks *JANNAF–JointArmyNavyNASAPropulsionSubcommittee SharedSuppliers(ref2013Deep Dive)

  17. DoD &NASAPublic-Private Partnerships NationalSpaceTransportationPolicy*(TwoDistinctLaunchAgents) •“Administrator,NASA,asthelaunchagentforcivilspacemissions,shall: –Develop,insupportofUSspaceexplorationgoals,thetransportation-relatedcapabilities necessarytosupporthumanandroboticexplorationtomultipledestinationsbeyondlow-Earth orbit,includinganasteroidandMars” •“SecretaryofDefense,asthelaunchagentfornationalsecurityspacemissions,shall: -Ensure,tothemaximumextentpossible,theavailabilityofatleasttwoUSspacetransportation vehiclefamiliescapableofreliablylaunchingnationalsecuritypayloads” •“SecretaryofDefenseandAdministrator,NASA,shall: –AssureaccesstospaceforUSGdepartmentsandagenciestakingintoaccountrisk management,affordability,competitionamongproviders,andmeasuresforenhancing transparencyregardingUSGspacetransportationneeds –RelyonUS-manufacturedcapabilitiesandservices,andensuretheabilitytodevelop,operate, andenhancespace-transportationcapabilities,infrastructure,andsupport –Workwitheachotherandotherdepartmentsandagencies,andwiththeprivatesector,as appropriate,topursueresearchanddevelopmentactivitiesregardingalternativelaunch capabilitiestoimproveresponsiveness,resiliency,andcosteffectivenessforfuturespacelaunch alternatives” * November21,2013 17

  18. AdditionalModelUses -Placeholderif neededforPropSIMA-

  19. AvailabilityOfModel -Placeholderif neededforPropSIMA-

  20. ContactInformation John F.Rice ProfessorofSystemsEngineering DefenseAcquisition University–South Region 7115OldMadisonPike Huntsville,AL35806 256-922-8152 john.rice@dau.mil RajivDoreswamy,Ph.D. POCinfo

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