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Satellite Communications A Part - Final

Satellite Communications A Part - Final. The Future -Professor Barry G Evans-. Timeline - development of commercial satcom (1/2). 1945 Arthur C Clarke 1956 First transatlantic telephone cable 1962 Telstar 1964 Intelsat founded 1965 Earlybird

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Satellite Communications A Part - Final

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  1. Satellite Communications APart - Final The Future-Professor Barry G Evans- SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  2. Timeline - development of commercial satcom (1/2) 1945 Arthur C Clarke 1956 First transatlantic telephone cable 1962 Telstar 1964 Intelsat founded 1965 Earlybird 1969 Intelsat completes global system 1976 Marisats launched 1977 Eutelsat created 1979 Inmarsat created 1982 Inmarsat starts operations 1983 Eutelsat F1 launched SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  3. 1984 PanAmSat founded 1985 SES Astra incorporated 1987 Iridium conceived 1988 First transatlantic fibre cable 1988 First PanAmSat launch 1989 First SES Astra launch 1995 PanAmSat completes global system 1998 Iridium service launch 1999 Iridium in Chapter 11 2001 Intelsat & Eutelsat privatisations Timeline – development of commercial satcom (2/2) SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  4. Satcom applications: Vsat + business TV Broadcast + content delivery TV distribution & contribution Internet trunking Internet access Basic telephony + private circuits Mobile + transportable + offshore Thin route + rural remote Disaster, emergency Government Where we are now (1) SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  5. Where we are now (2) Disadvantages of satellite: • Low capacity (compared to fibre) • End-to-end delay (with Geo technology) • Large, up-front investment; long time to pay back • Implementation risks • Exit costs • Regulatory constraints/finite raw materials (orbital slots; spectrum; licensing/market access) SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  6. Where we are now (3) Advantages of satellite: • Wide area coverage • Global reach • Low cost per site passed • Fast set-up & reconfiguration • Availability where terrestrial alternatives are poor, non-existent or not an option • Ability to broadcast/multicast SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  7. Industry revenues in 2000 • Worldwide satellite industry revenues • Manufacturing $ 18.3 B • Launch $ 9.6 B • Services $ 37.0 B • Ground Equipment $ 17.7 B Total $ 82.6 B SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000 SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  8. Satellite services revenues 2000 • Transponder leasing $ 8.8 B • DTH $ 24.7 B • MSS (telephony) $ 0.4 B • VSAT $ 1.4 B • MSS (data) $ 1.3 B • Remote sensing $ 0.4 B Total $ 37.0 B SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000 SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  9. Satellite services customers 2000 • DTH • Subscribers 67.0 M • VSAT • Units in operation 610,000 • MSS • Data units in operation 854,000 • Telephony units in operation 274,300 SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000 SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  10. Global projections • Projected revenues of the satellite industry • 2001 $ 100.0 B • 2010 $ 200-300.0 B • Projected subscribers to digital radio • 2010 50 M • Projected revenues from broadband services • 2008 $ 37 B. SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000; ISBC State of the Space Industry 2000; Pioneer Consulting SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  11. Satellite is essential infrastructure • Broadcasting to businesses and homes (DTH) • Broadcasting to cable head-ends • Cable TV distribution dependent upon satellite • ISP connectivity; caching; multicasting • Distribution of internet content • Private Networks • VSAT networks key corporate private network • SNG • Broadcast stations and news bureaus rely on satellite links. SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  12. Changing Scenes • 1995 – Bright prospects for terrestrial mobile and satellites • 2000 – Terrestrial mobile booming satellites collapse with Iridium/Globalstar failures • 2002 – Satellite broadcasting and Internet booming terrestrial 3G in Doldrums “Our ability to predict the telecoms market and to provide affordable services is poor” SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  13. 2002: What’s new • Internet drives FSS • DVB – Direct TV success • Satellite radio (DAB/DARS) prospects • Mobile SPCN’s crash –end of constellations? • INMARSAT niche still strong SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  14. General Climate of Change (1/3) • Deregulation / Liberalisation • Inmarsat / Intelsat / Eutelsat: private companies • Global operations via acquisitions • 1. SES-Global (>$1billion turnover) • 2. Intelsat • 3. Panamsat • 4. Eutelsat • Consolidation of manufacturers • Europe: Alcatel Space, Astrium, Alenia • US: Boeing, Lockheed, Loral SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  15. General Climate of Change (2/3) • Standards • Satellite moving same way as Mobile –GMR standards and now S-UMTS • Spectrum • Limited (WRC00 – Little for satellites) • Sharing/Pricing –Satellite advantage • Efficiency –Can satellites provide? SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  16. General Climate of Change (3/3) • Convergence • Fixed/Mobile/Broadcasting • Service mobility • Billing convergence • Investment –Changes rapidly – Satellites poor at moment • Competition –Cable, fixed radio, HAPS SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  17. Where we are now • Total satcom industry revenues were $27 Bn in 2000 (around 3% of global telecom revenues) - Source: ESA • Internet via satellite services generated $800M global revenues in 2000, from zero in 1997 -Source: DTT Consulting • Total satcom industry revenues are projected to grow to $106 Bn by 2007. The majority of the growth will come from broadband data and video services. Interactive multimedia revenues are forecast to be $18Bn by 2007, DARS $9Bn -Source: ESA SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  18. Lessons to learn (1) Commercial: • A “big-bang”, high-profile service launch date is unwise • There is no such thing as a global service launch • The satellite owner/operator will be badly let down by uncommitted or poorly-performing distributors • Bad news about one satellite project is bad news for all • Satellite systems can not charge whatever they like • Confirmed access to spectrum is vital • Market access is crucial to business success • The first to market is not necessarily the winner • Finding killer applications is difficult SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  19. Lessons to learn (2) Financial: • Year one forecasts must be realistic • The investors are highly dependent on the performance of the distribution chain. • Financing a start-up satellite system is very hard • Do not rely on investment banks • Exit costs are extremely high • Flotation too soon leads to exposure and inflexibility SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  20. Lessons to learn (3) Technology: • The satellite manufacturer will not deliver on time • Be realistic about time to market • Do not design a satellite system around just one application • User terminals can be among the most difficult elements in a “mass-market” satellite project • Good technology does not assure commercial success • Alternative, non-satellite technologies do not stand still • Do not underestimate the complexity and costs of non Geo systems SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  21. Lessons to learn (4) Service: • Motivating distributors is vital • It is essential to have service delivery experience at the forefront • For the mass-market, continuous service availability is very important • User expectations must be carefully managed • Distribution strategy must be coherent and focussed • Service provision/distribution channels must be aligned closely with the overall interests of the enterprise. They must be up to speed right at the start • Service and useful functions are the ultimate deliverables SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  22. Rememberthe advantages of Satellite • Wide area coverage –broadcast • Quick roll-out of services • Provides wide bands (high bit rates) • Coverage areas that are expensive for terrestrial • Avoids terrestrial infrastructure SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  23. FSS - Focus on the Internet • Satellite delivery of IP-based services increased 800% over past two years • 11% of all ISPs use some satellite links to connect to the Internet backbone • By 2001 total ISP demand for satellite links will equal 216 transponders • Internet specific satellite transponder lease revenue will jump from $601M in 2001 to $8.5B in 2006 • End-user and ISP satellite multicast equipment to reach over $7B in 2005. DDT Consulting; Frost & Sullivan; Pioneer Consulting SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  24. Internet Services • 30-40% Intelsat resources now IP • Multicasting from satellites • Caching provision offers improved bandwidth and response times • Satellite products available – Comsat • CLA 2000 • TCP/IP • Spoofing • Slow start/Variable windows • LINKWAY 2000 • Multiservice BOD • ATM/IP/FR/ISDN • IP routing protocols (RSVP) • BOD adaption SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  25. Broadband • Ka and constellations lost momentum • Back to GEO’s and DVB-S • IP to the customer DVB-RCS • e-Europe / Broadband Britain – Satellite role • 4500 (36MHz equivalent transponders)  7000 by 2007 SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  26. Satellite Direct To Home (DTH) • 67M subscribers globally - urban, suburban and rural • 25M satellite households in Western Europe alone • In Spain, Italy, UK and France more satellite households than cable households. • DTH taking market share from cable in US • Cable increasingly expensive to lay (rights of way) - cable companies looking at satellite options to reach customers • DTH presages 2-way internet/broadband demand • 52% of Astra users own PCs and 27% have online access. SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  27. 80% of European digital TV delivered by satellite "Another important area is digital television. The market for digital TV doubles or even triples a year in several EU countries. Europe has closed the gap with the USA with over 10 million subscribers. New services are rolled out, ranging from Internet access to digital TV-based e-commerce." From a speech by Mr. Erkki Liikanen, "eEurope and e-Business" Europay International, Key Members' Conference Amsterdam, 1 July 2000 SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  28. Satellite Broadcasting • DBS in USA (>15m subscribers), 43% of digital services DirecTV and EchoStar • SNG market growing • 97mods to DVB-S allow 90cm-1.5m SCPC • 8Mb/s with 8PSK/TCM/16QAM option • DVB-RCS now becoming standard for IP delivery SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  29. Digital Radio (DAB-DARS) • US • Xm Radio (GEO) – up --services operation • SIRIUS Radio (HEO) --services operation • Infrastructure in place – Deals with leading car/truck companies • Radio’s in shops (US) and in cars/trucks • Worldwide • Worldspace – 3 world coverage satellites • Infrastructure/Radios – in place • Europe • Global Radio / Worldspace • S-DAB • Convergence broadcasting/mobile – Multimedia and multicasting SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  30. Sirius satellite radio system SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  31. Satellite: competitive local access • Satellite DTH has successfully competed with cable in urban, suburban and rural areas for decades • Satellite is a competitive means of local access • Only wireless technologies bypass the incumbent’s pipes and offer consumers a real “last mile” choice • No other “last mile” technology - DSL, WLL, etc. - has a proven track such as satellite. • Satellite will be a critical access means for bandwidth hungry, converged services. SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  32. Mobile Satellite Systems • S-PCS (Iridium/Globalstar) failed –lead on competition with terrestrial will not succeed • Inmarsat niche market area successful but small  200k users, and expensive • Constellations not popular SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  33. GEO-Mobiles • ACES/THURAYA etc. • 200 spots from 14m deployables • On board dsp – channel to beam routing • GSM/GPRS services –GMR standards • Can they provide services economically? SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  34. ASIA GEO Mobile Systems ACES ASC APMT Sat Phone Int. EAST Thuraya QoS/Availability Service Offerings Coverage Timing Price SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  35. Inmarsat Niche Market Extension SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  36. Convergence:Mobile / Broadcasting (positioning) • Broadcast / Multicasting with caching • Push and store services • Vehicle’s and handhelds • S + T (UMTS) or DVB/DABS with UMTS • Location based services tied with Galileo SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  37. Content Delivery Network Model Push mechanism Multicast mechanism Store mechanism DMB Satellite Broadcasting Multicasting Vehicular DMB receiver smart antenna Cache Gateway Contribution network Cache Bluetooth Local Interactivity server interface Broadcast center User Handset Remote Interactivity DMB terminal DMB Broadcast/Multicast mission SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  38. W-CDMA Multicast W-CDMA Multicast Feeder link W-CDMA GPRS EDGE Ground Station Terrestrial Repeaters GSM/GPRS GSM/GPRS T-UMTS URBAN AREA SUB - URBAN AREA RURAL AREA 2G/3G Cellular network Contribution network IP WORLD DMB Architecture Synoptic SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  39. Opportunity for Satellite • Where are terrestrial networks weak points? • Infrastructure cost • Deployment of UMTS islands in a GPRS world • Traffic costs • Limited bandwidth per cell • Environmental (tower, pylon, radiation) • Designed for symmetric traffic • Where will UMTS network never go? • Broadband broadcast/multicast services (not addressed in R99) • Don’t you feel any fresh air, there? SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  40. The Orbcomm Constellation Little LEO’s • Definition • Constellations of LEO satellites, operating at frequencies < 1GHz, providing non real-time digital communications for applications such as messaging, property tracking, email and telemonitoring • 2001 –Orbcomm fails –is this the end? SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  41. Future Opportunities • Keys are • BROADBAND • INTERACTIVITY • INTEGRATION • MOBILITY SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  42. Future Opportunities • Convergence of Satellite delivered broadcast/multicast with terrestrial delivery of other services • Broadband internet access and interactivity • DVB-RCS –standardisation • Mass markets rather than niche • Cooperating service provision plus completing terminal networks SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  43. Future opportunities SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  44. Key Constraints • Spectrum availability at right time • Poor perspective of satellites by terrestrial operations • Will they embrace as part of global network • Unavailability of finance • Regulatory issues and standard bodies SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  45. Future satellites:Product Developments • Reliable low cost launch capability • Large GEO platforms (3-4 tons) – 15Kw • Long life, high power/strange/dissipation • Autonomy: low cost, rapid production • Small LEO platforms • Medium life, pointing agility/stability • Autonomy: low cost, rapid production • Large deployable reflectors • 12-14m (Tx/Rx) – 100 spots • Active antennas • BFNs • Phased arrays • OBP • Beam forming – channelising • Regeneration – switching • Miniature, active/passive, microwave equipment (L/s, Ku, KA) • ISLs (optical) SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  46. Conclusions • Markets • Very large –up to 4140B by 2010 • Asia/Pacific Rim –biggest • Digital Broadcast –Internet driven (DVB/DAB) • Convergence of mobile/broadcast systems – using local cache’s (push to start) band in vehicle services • Broadband • Satellites provide early starts • 3G UMTS? • Multimedia to home • Broadband • Mobility • INMARSAT niche – Maritime/Aero • Mass markets opened up by broadcast/mobile convergence • Civil/Military • Synergies • Shift to service delivery/content • Emphasis away from equipment manufacture • Software service • Competition • Cable / radio / HAPS SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

  47. Satellite & the competition • Technical limitations of terrestrial networks will severely restrict broadband availability. • Digital subscriber line (DSL) signals decay on long telephone lines or on those of poor quality. • Local multipoint distribution service (LMDS) signals cannot penetrate obstructions, buildings. • Cable performance deteriorates if too many in a neighborhood log on at the same time. • Fiber-to-the-home is a costly retrofit, economically viable only for new housing construction. • For up to one third of the population in the U.S. and an even greater portion worldwide, satellite technology will not simply be a choice, it will be the choice. SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans

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